Dubai homeowners prepared to 'play the long game' if property values fall

Homeowners and potential buyers in Dubai are responding with cautious optimism to a report that residential prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent this year.

Last month, a report was released by New York-based ratings agency Fitch Ratings, predicting the city’s real estate market would enter a “moderate correction” in the second half of 2025 as a record number of projects launch.

But, on the ground, while some prospective buyers are pausing to reassess, homeowners are showing little concern, despite the potential market decline.

"Even if it goes down by 15 per cent, I'm still going to make money, because I bought below market price and I did renovations," said Laurie Fersing, a property investor from France, who also owns her own facilities management company in Dubai.

"It's like the stock market," she added. "Don't sell when it goes down. Keep it, rent it and after maybe five or six years, 10 even, it's going to increase again, because everything in life [eventually] increases."

The long game

Sam Conn, from the UK, and his wife factored any potential price correction into their decision to buy their first Dubai home earlier this year. The couple moved to the UAE in April 2024 and spent a year renting before buying a property in Canal Front Residences in January. Handover took place in April.

“We were aware of the oversupply risks and the talk of a potential correction, however the forecasts and commentary we researched before buying suggested that this wouldn’t materialise until 2027,” said Mr Conn, who recently launched his own management consultancy business here.

“While the timing of the start of the correction has moved forward to the second half of this year, it doesn’t change our view or decision as we have confidence in the location where we have purchased… The reality is that rent prices were becoming unsustainable, and buying made more sense for us both financially and from a lifestyle perspective.

“Even if there’s a dip over the next few years, we’re backing the bigger picture: the continued growth of this region, the migration of talent and wealth, and Dubai’s ability to attract long-term investment. We see our purchase as a long-term play in a city that has an exciting future.”

Filipino Dubai resident Lyn Helbling is also playing the long game. She and her husband bought a property for Dh4.9 million in Jumeirah Park last year and it's already grown in value to Dh8.7 million, according to the latest valuations.

"We were thinking to sell our property as the price went up by quite a lot, but have decided to keep it, install a pool and still enjoy having our own home," she told The National.

"When our daughter leaves for university, we would probably consider selling and downsizing, but not if the price isn’t right. We’re not in a rush and intend to live in Dubai long term and have no foreseeable plans to move."

Buyers weigh up timing and location

Prospective buyers, meanwhile, like communications professional Francesca Hedley, from the UK, are adopting a wait-and-see approach. She and her partner have spent the last month looking for their first property, but are now hesitant to buy this summer.

“We want to wait and watch,” she told The National. “We are mindful that prices will only decrease where there is oversupply, so if we continue to look in Downtown, for example, we are conscious the prices there may be unaffected – and only increase.

"Whereas if we broaden our search, we could wait for a bargain.”

With a budget of Dh2.2 million, the couple has been exclusively looking in Downtown Dubai and Business Bay. “Prices don’t appear to be shifting … [but] it’s very hard to find something on that budget that doesn’t need lots of work.”

Price growth slowing, not collapsing

Professionals remain confident in the market’s potential, citing Dubai’s record population growth, continuing housing demand and maturing real estate sector as indicators that any correction will likely be moderate.

“While Fitch’s projection of a potential price correction makes headlines, the reality on the ground tells a different story,” said Christopher Cina, sales director at agency and brokerage Betterhomes. “Dubai’s population is growing at its fastest pace – we saw nearly 90,000 new residents arrive in Q1 alone, which is over 1,000 people a day. That level of sustained population growth is a real driver of housing demand, especially in liveable, well-connected communities.”

Data from CBRE Middle East supports that view. Matthew Green, the commercial real estate company’s head of research, said price growth has moderated slightly from highs of more than 20 per cent per annum during 2023 and 2024, but values continue to grow, increasing by around 17 per cent in Q1 2025 against the same period last year. This reflects the continued demand for Dubai’s housing products, he said.

“While this price growth is expected to slow further in the coming quarters and years, overall transaction volumes and the value of these sales continue to grow robustly,” said Mr Green, adding that April was a record month for already-built residential transaction value.

Meanwhile, between 2025 and 2026, around 110,000 new units are expected to be completed, which Mr Green said could help ease some of the cost-of-living pressures caused by rising rents.

Population boom, but cautious optimism

Despite the flood of new units, Mr Cina said concerns about a sudden imbalance are overstated. “Yes, supply is coming, but handovers in Dubai do not always arrive on time, delays are common and the volume expected over the next two years will be staggered, not sudden. That helps prevent a sharp shift in balance between supply and demand.”

Buyers are also increasingly calculating long-term benefits, he noted. “Demand isn’t just holding up – it’s strengthening. Rents are at all-time highs in many areas, and for many residents, the cost of a mortgage today is still more attractive long term than continuing to rent."

A maturing market

Siraj Ahmed, director and head of strategy and consulting at Cavendish Maxwell, said he expects strong supply to continue – though not necessarily at the forecasted levels.

“Around 73,200 new residential units are expected to enter the market this year, with another 95,700 in 2026, but, as we have seen in the past, actual completion rates may be lower, with the delivery of some units pushed to a later date,” he said.

The property consultancy’s latest insight on Dubai’s residential real estate market also show that while sales and rental prices grew in Q1 2025, the pace of quarter-on-quarter increases was relatively modest compared to quarterly growth over the last two years.

“This is largely due to a surge in residential supply,” he added. “If this delivery pace continues, the market could experience another stable quarter, potentially signalling a transition towards a more balanced and mature phase.”

For prospective homeowners and investors, Mr Ahmed said it’s more important for them to understand why they’re buying, rather than timing the market perfectly. “Real estate prices and rental yields are influenced by supply and demand dynamics and the pace at which new stock enters the market," he said. "The question of when to buy property is, in many ways, philosophical.”