Homeowners and potential buyers in Dubai are responding with cautious optimism to a report that residential prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent this year.
Last month, a report was released by New York-based ratings agency Fitch Ratings, predicting the city’s real estate market would enter a “moderate correction” in the second half of 2025 as a record number of projects launch.
But, on the ground, while some prospective buyers are pausing to reassess, homeowners are showing little concern, despite the potential market decline.
"Even if it goes down by 15 per cent, I'm still going to make money, because I bought below market price and I did renovations," said Laurie Fersing, a property investor from France, who also owns her own facilities management company in Dubai.
"It's like the stock market," she added. "Don't sell when it goes down. Keep it, rent it and after maybe five or six years, 10 even, it's going to increase again, because everything in life [eventually] increases."
The long game
Sam Conn, from the UK, and his wife factored any potential price correction into their decision to buy their first Dubai home earlier this year. The couple moved to the UAE in April 2024 and spent a year renting before buying a property in Canal Front Residences in January. Handover took place in April.
“We were aware of the oversupply risks and the talk of a potential correction, however the forecasts and commentary we researched before buying suggested that this wouldn’t materialise until 2027,” said Mr Conn, who recently launched his own management consultancy business here.
“While the timing of the start of the correction has moved forward to the second half of this year, it doesn’t change our view or decision as we have confidence in the location where we have purchased… The reality is that rent prices were becoming unsustainable, and buying made more sense for us both financially and from a lifestyle perspective.
“Even if there’s a dip over the next few years, we’re backing the bigger picture: the continued growth of this region, the migration of talent and wealth, and Dubai’s ability to attract long-term investment. We see our purchase as a long-term play in a city that has an exciting future.”
Filipino Dubai resident Lyn Helbling is also playing the long game. She and her husband bought a property for Dh4.9 million in Jumeirah Park last year and it's already grown in value to Dh8.7 million, according to the latest valuations.
"We were thinking to sell our property as the price went up by quite a lot, but have decided to keep it, install a pool and still enjoy having our own home," she told The National.
"When our daughter leaves for university, we would probably consider selling and downsizing, but not if the price isn’t right. We’re not in a rush and intend to live in Dubai long term and have no foreseeable plans to move."
Buyers weigh up timing and location
Prospective buyers, meanwhile, like communications professional Francesca Hedley, from the UK, are adopting a wait-and-see approach. She and her partner have spent the last month looking for their first property, but are now hesitant to buy this summer.
“We want to wait and watch,” she told The National. “We are mindful that prices will only decrease where there is oversupply, so if we continue to look in Downtown, for example, we are conscious the prices there may be unaffected – and only increase.
"Whereas if we broaden our search, we could wait for a bargain.”
With a budget of Dh2.2 million, the couple has been exclusively looking in Downtown Dubai and Business Bay. “Prices don’t appear to be shifting … [but] it’s very hard to find something on that budget that doesn’t need lots of work.”
Price growth slowing, not collapsing
Professionals remain confident in the market’s potential, citing Dubai’s record population growth, continuing housing demand and maturing real estate sector as indicators that any correction will likely be moderate.
“While Fitch’s projection of a potential price correction makes headlines, the reality on the ground tells a different story,” said Christopher Cina, sales director at agency and brokerage Betterhomes. “Dubai’s population is growing at its fastest pace – we saw nearly 90,000 new residents arrive in Q1 alone, which is over 1,000 people a day. That level of sustained population growth is a real driver of housing demand, especially in liveable, well-connected communities.”
Data from CBRE Middle East supports that view. Matthew Green, the commercial real estate company’s head of research, said price growth has moderated slightly from highs of more than 20 per cent per annum during 2023 and 2024, but values continue to grow, increasing by around 17 per cent in Q1 2025 against the same period last year. This reflects the continued demand for Dubai’s housing products, he said.
“While this price growth is expected to slow further in the coming quarters and years, overall transaction volumes and the value of these sales continue to grow robustly,” said Mr Green, adding that April was a record month for already-built residential transaction value.
Meanwhile, between 2025 and 2026, around 110,000 new units are expected to be completed, which Mr Green said could help ease some of the cost-of-living pressures caused by rising rents.
Population boom, but cautious optimism
Despite the flood of new units, Mr Cina said concerns about a sudden imbalance are overstated. “Yes, supply is coming, but handovers in Dubai do not always arrive on time, delays are common and the volume expected over the next two years will be staggered, not sudden. That helps prevent a sharp shift in balance between supply and demand.”
Buyers are also increasingly calculating long-term benefits, he noted. “Demand isn’t just holding up – it’s strengthening. Rents are at all-time highs in many areas, and for many residents, the cost of a mortgage today is still more attractive long term than continuing to rent."
A maturing market
Siraj Ahmed, director and head of strategy and consulting at Cavendish Maxwell, said he expects strong supply to continue – though not necessarily at the forecasted levels.
“Around 73,200 new residential units are expected to enter the market this year, with another 95,700 in 2026, but, as we have seen in the past, actual completion rates may be lower, with the delivery of some units pushed to a later date,” he said.
The property consultancy’s latest insight on Dubai’s residential real estate market also show that while sales and rental prices grew in Q1 2025, the pace of quarter-on-quarter increases was relatively modest compared to quarterly growth over the last two years.
“This is largely due to a surge in residential supply,” he added. “If this delivery pace continues, the market could experience another stable quarter, potentially signalling a transition towards a more balanced and mature phase.”
For prospective homeowners and investors, Mr Ahmed said it’s more important for them to understand why they’re buying, rather than timing the market perfectly. “Real estate prices and rental yields are influenced by supply and demand dynamics and the pace at which new stock enters the market," he said. "The question of when to buy property is, in many ways, philosophical.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Overall standings
1. Christopher Froome (GBR/Sky) 68hr 18min 36sec,
2. Fabio Aru (ITA/AST) at 0:18.
3. Romain Bardet (FRA/ALM) 0:23.
4. Rigoberto Uran (COL/CAN) 0:29.
5. Mikel Landa (ESP/SKY) 1:17.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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US PGA Championship in numbers
1 Joost Luiten produced a memorable hole in one at the par-three fourth in the first round.
2 To date, the only two players to win the PGA Championship after winning the week before are Rory McIlroy (2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational) and Tiger Woods (2007, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Stroud could have made it three.
3 Number of seasons without a major for McIlroy, who finished in a tie for 22nd.
4 Louis Oosthuizen has now finished second in all four of the game's major championships.
5 In the fifth hole of the final round, McIlroy holed his longest putt of the week - from 16ft 8in - for birdie.
6 For the sixth successive year, play was disrupted by bad weather with a delay of one hour and 43 minutes on Friday.
7 Seven under par (64) was the best round of the week, shot by Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari on Day 2.
8 Number of shots taken by Jason Day on the 18th hole in round three after a risky recovery shot backfired.
9 Jon Rahm's age in months the last time Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the US PGA, in 1995.
10 Jimmy Walker's opening round as defending champion was a 10-over-par 81.
11 The par-four 11th coincidentally ranked as the 11th hardest hole overall with a scoring average of 4.192.
12 Paul Casey was a combined 12 under par for his first round in this year's majors.
13 The average world ranking of the last 13 PGA winners before this week was 25. Kevin Kisner began the week ranked 25th.
14 The world ranking of Justin Thomas before his victory.
15 Of the top 15 players after 54 holes, only Oosthuizen had previously won a major.
16 The par-four 16th marks the start of Quail Hollow's so-called "Green Mile" of finishing holes, some of the toughest in golf.
17 The first round scoring average of the last 17 major champions was 67.2. Kisner and Thorbjorn Olesen shot 67 on day one at Quail Hollow.
18 For the first time in 18 majors, the eventual winner was over par after round one (Thomas shot 73).
Full Party in the Park line-up
2pm – Andreah
3pm – Supernovas
4.30pm – The Boxtones
5.30pm – Lighthouse Family
7pm – Step On DJs
8pm – Richard Ashcroft
9.30pm – Chris Wright
10pm – Fatboy Slim
11pm – Hollaphonic
