Most corals in the Arabian Gulf could be wiped out this century because of the continued warming of the seas, a new global analysis has indicated.
According to the research, coral cover in the Gulf between 2090 and 2099 is expected to be between 75 and 100 per cent less than it was between 2010 and 2019.
While the forecasts vary according to future greenhouse gas emission levels, the study calculates that under a “middle-of-the-road” scenario, coral cover globally will decline by about 58 per cent by the end of the century.
The study also found that corals in the hottest parts of the world will not be able to expand fast enough into cooler areas to cope with the damage they will experience from the warming of the oceans.
Writing in Science Advances, the scientists said that “the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 40 to 80 years”, but that large-scale expansion of coral reefs into cooler waters to compensate for this “requires centuries”.
Some regions, such as the southern coast of Australia, are forecast to see increases in coral cover, but most will see a decline, with the Arabian Gulf among the hardest hit.
The study’s first author, Dr Noam Vogt-Vincent, of the University of Hawaii at Manoa, told The National that it was “well-established that coral reefs are facing a precipitous decline over the coming decades” and this is being observed in multiple “bleaching” events, where high temperatures make coral expel algae that live inside them.
Corals face growing threat
“As the ocean warms, conditions suitable for reef formation will shift away from the tropics,” he added. “It was previously thought that parts of the subtropics and temperate seas might be able to act as ‘refugia’ for tropical coral species, possibly allowing them to avoid extinction as they experience catastrophic losses in the tropics.
“Our study suggests that, although coral range expansion will eventually occur, it will probably take centuries, which is far too slow for these new higher latitude environments to act as refugia, given that they’re already threatened.”
He said that the problem was not that coral larvae could not reach new environments, but that their growth in numbers was too small for them to develop into larger populations that could sustain themselves.
While the study forecasts that most coral in the Arabian Gulf will be lost this century, Dr Vogt-Vincent said caution should be exercised when interpreting the finding, partly because the model looks at global-scale changes and as the area has extremely high temperatures, the corals are not typical of the Indo-Pacific region.
The new study, Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion, is also written by scientists from the University of New Hampshire in the US and Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.
The Arabian Gulf is “very likely to continue warming as a result of climate change”, said Dr Diana Francis, an assistant professor and head of the environmental and geophysical sciences lab at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.
“Recent studies have shown that the Gulf has warmed by approximately 1.0 to 1.5 °C over the past 40 to 50 years,” she said.
She said that the rate of warming in the Arabian Gulf was faster than the global average because it was shallow, semi-enclosed and received much sunlight.
As well as making seas warmer, climate change is also causing them to rise, through expansion of the water and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers.
Prof John Burt of New York University Abu Dhabi, who was not involved in the latest study, but who researches corals around the UAE, said that the more that range expansion of corals was studied, the more it became apparent that “these were this was “not sufficient to keep pace with the impacts of climate change in the tropics”.
He said that only a limited range of coral species, typically more “generalist” types adapted to a wider range of environments, could make the leap to new environments.
“We are not replacing the diversity or functioning of these amazing tropical ecosystems through range expansion,” he said.
“The present paper adds a further nail in the coffin for this line of thought by showing the rates of expansion are only a fraction of what is needed just to replace the total amount of live coral that will be lost on tropical reefs under climate change, not even considering species diversity.”
He said that while Arabian Gulf corals were the most heat-tolerant in the world, they “are not immune to climate change”.
“Recent marine heatwaves and global-scale bleaching events have caused the loss of over 80 per cent of corals from many regional reefs in the past decade alone,” he said.
Taking action
Efforts are being made to protect corals, with Abu Dhabi having recently revealed plans to plant millions of coral colonies across more than 900 hectares.
The initiative is led by the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, which said its efforts had seen it restore more than one million colonies.
Dr Burt and his colleagues are looking at selective breeding to produce heat-tolerant coral larvae, an approach that could lead to the production, he said, of millions of offspring better able to cope with higher temperatures.
“However, unless we get CO2 emissions under control, the long-term vulnerability of even these robust individuals in the wild remains an open question,” he said.
Researchers say that reducing other factors that stress corals, such as pollution and overfishing, can have a positive effect on reefs, but Dr Vogt-Vincent said that such measures alone were not enough to protect these ecosystems.
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Results
1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix - 3:45:47
2. David Dekker (NED) Jumbo-Visma - same time
3. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
4. Emils Liepins (LAT) Trek-Segafredo
5. Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis
6. Tadej Pogacar (SLO UAE Team Emirates
7. Anthony Roux (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
8. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:00:03
9. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep
10. Fausto Masnada (ITA) Deceuninck-QuickStep
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
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The years Ramadan fell in May
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
THE NEW BATCH'S FOCUS SECTORS
AiFlux – renewables, oil and gas
DevisionX – manufacturing
Event Gates – security and manufacturing
Farmdar – agriculture
Farmin – smart cities
Greener Crop – agriculture
Ipera.ai – space digitisation
Lune Technologies – fibre-optics
Monak – delivery
NutzenTech – environment
Nybl – machine learning
Occicor – shelf management
Olymon Solutions – smart automation
Pivony – user-generated data
PowerDev – energy big data
Sav – finance
Searover – renewables
Swftbox – delivery
Trade Capital Partners – FinTech
Valorafutbol – sports and entertainment
Workfam – employee engagement
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Results
6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer)
6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m
Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m
Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor
8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons
9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
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The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):
1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop
2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia - £25m: Flop
3). Erik Lamela - Roma - £25m: Jury still out
4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen - £25m: Success
5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic - £21m: Flop
6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar - £18m: Flop
7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers - £18m: Flop
8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb - £17m: Success
9). Paulinho - Corinthians - £16m: Flop
10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham - £16m: Success
Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
