It is no secret that artificial intelligence is everywhere today. But, now, an AI front is passing over the world of weather forecasting.
AI has improved forecasting so much that, in some cases, it can outperform conventional systems, an expert has told The National.
Marouane Temimi, associate professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the US, said the pattern has emerged over the past few years and could lead to hugely improved short-term forecasting that can pinpoint which areas of a city can expect rain.
Speaking on the sidelines of the International Rain Enhancement Forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, Prof Temimi said these forecasts – called nowcasting – could also lead to better emergency responses. They can be used for any extreme weather event from hurricanes to wildfires to storms.
But he also said that AI systems might run out of data if there is less of a commitment to conventional physics-based forecasting models.
“AI-based models are doing well, close enough to the physics-based model – the traditional model that we have been using,” said Prof Temimi. “In some cases they even overperformed them. The European model that was developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has shown that.”
Where AI systems may have a crucial role is this ultra short-term “nowcasting” that can track a storm over several hours.
“They tend to have better accuracy when it comes to the location and the timing of the magnitude of rainfall,” he said, with such a model developed at his university. “If you have a last-minute decision’ to take – like evacuate people or close roads – then you rely on the nowcasting instead of the forecasting.”
Many technology companies are developing AI weather forecast models. An example is Graphcast developed by Google’s DeepMind that identified the landfall location of Hurricane Beryl last year before regular models.
Many countries are now exploring this development, with money pouring into the field and government agencies figuring out how to use such models. But much more research and funds are needed.
No data, no AI
But there is a much larger issue. Conventional forecasting models are a series of complex equations based on huge amounts of data built up over decades and compiled by experts.
“These are basically complex models that are built out of millions and millions of lines of codes and they try with their structure to mimic every single small process that happens out in nature … to predict weather,” said Prof Temimi, who is based in the New Jersey university's department of civil, environmental and ocean engineering.
He said there is an entire atmospheric science community that has been studying the physics of clouds, radiation of the Sun and much more that informs these physics-based models. This has been built up over decades thanks to this painstaking work.
But with the advent of AI over the past few years, things have started to change as it does not look at these microprocesses. It simply takes the information from satellite images to radar details and identifies patterns over time. “Unfortunately, AI does not go into those details,” he said. “AI can try to predict events without that strong knowledge of physics.”
The more data the better, but what happens when the data runs out? Prof Temimi said that data could become scarcer if there is a greater reliance on AI and less of a commitment to the hard task of gathering information without which the AI systems could not work.
“Eventually, we may risk running out of data to feed the AI models. The community will [need] to find a solution or a compromise because we cannot drop the physics-based model, in my opinion, and we cannot all shift to the AI models.”
The forum, meanwhile, has drawn experts in weather modification and water security from around the world.
Discussion on Wednesday focused on new cloud-seeding materials and the role of drones and aircraft in weather modification.
Student and early-career scientists from local and international research institutions also presented studies into the field. The forum continues until Thursday.
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
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West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes 58-10 Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers 5-39 Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons 16-56 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
INFO
Everton 0
Arsenal 0
Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)
The specs
Engine: 3.6 V6
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Power: 295bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: Dh155,000
On sale: now
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Army of the Dead
Director: Zack Snyder
Stars: Dave Bautista, Ella Purnell, Omari Hardwick, Ana de la Reguera
Three stars
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
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Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
