Trump or Harris? Uncertain US political climate looms over Cop29

The ramifications of a bitterly fought US election on November 5 are set to be felt around the world, including at crunch climate talks set to begin only days later at Cop 29 in Azerbaijan.

The possible re-election of climate sceptic Donald Trump is looming large and could influence how key negotiations play out in Baku. Seasoned observers believe that some major emitters will be waiting for the result before they finalise their own climate pledges.

They also point out that negotiators at Cop29 know the US could leave the Paris Agreement and even the entire UNFCCC convention - if Mr Trump secures victory.

He withdrew the US from the Paris deal in 2017 and his campaign said he will do so again if re-elected as president. But they also say a Trump victory won’t end global climate action as the world is a different place.

Urgent need for climate action

The task ahead is urgent, with a major report released by the UN on Thursday warning the 1.5°C goal was slipping out of reach. The "Emissions Gap" report said a continuation of current policies could lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C and unthinkable consequences.

So what impact would either Mr Trump, the Republican candidate or Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party's presidential hopeful, have on Cop29?

Trump’s long shadow

Mr Trump's first victory came in 2016 during the Cop22 talks in Marrakesh. It didn't directly affect the negotiating positions but the victory hit hard.

Karim Elgendy, climate expert and associate fellow at British think tank Chatham House, said his win "sent shockwaves" through the negotiations.

"While the incoming administration won't have time to change the formal US position at Cop29, its expected future stance can significantly influence the already fragile dynamics," he said.

Simon Evans, deputy editor of Carbon Brief, the UK-based climate specialist website, said the impact of the first Trump win was felt particularly in 2017 at Cop23 after he'd announced his intention to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.

“Cop23 also saw the launch of a ‘we are still in' group of sub-national actors from the US, including cities, states and businesses. I would expect to see the launch of a similar coalition if Trump is elected for a second time," said Mr Evans. Carbon Brief has previously published analyses indicating a repeat Trump victory could add four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030.

For Cop29, Mr Evans also said some countries could be adapting a wait-and-see approach.

"My understanding is that some major emitters will be waiting for the election result before they finalise their own climate pledges," he said. "And negotiators will be under no illusions that the US will be leaving the Paris Agreement – and potentially even the UN climate convention – if Trump wins a second term."

Mr Elgendy said the the potential UNFCCC move "would be far more devastating for global climate action".

"Even the signal of US disengagement could unravel the efforts to create consensus around ambitious climate finance commitments at Cop29," he said. "It would also embolden other countries resistant to climate action."

Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the London School of Economics, further warned that Mr Trump could withdraw from the UNFCCC convention given his “apparent rejection of both climate science and international co-operation”.

“This will have a damaging impact on the international negotiations but will not destroy them,” he said.

What we know about Kamala Harris

President Joe Biden reversed Mr Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris deal. He also passed the "Inflation Reduction Act", which funnelled billions of dollars to bolster renewable energy, cleaner manufacturing and electric vehicles.

Ms Harris has yet to fully outline her climate plans. But in August, she mentioned climate in her acceptance speech for the Democratic Party’s nomination and is expected to broadly continue President Biden's trajectory.

“She has given relatively limited indications of how she would approach climate change," said Mr Evans.

“But she is ‘committed to continuing and building upon the US's international climate leadership’ and the Democratic election platform reiterates climate policy priorities set out under the Biden administration.”

The crucial aspect, noted Mr Elgendy, surrounds finance and "how much is the US willing to contribute to it."

What are the major challenges for Cop29?

Countries at the last summit agreed a historic deal to “transition” away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy.

Now the focus turns to finance – how to pay for all this. Countries need to agree a new target to replace the $100 billion a year for developing countries in what is known in UN parlance as the "New Collective Quantified Goal".

Trillions of dollars are believed to be needed but countries remain at odds on how much and who should chip in the most. Vulnerable countries such as the small island states are often frustrated at how hard funds to help them deal with the effects of man-made climate change are to obtain.

Also crucial are US-China relations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he "hoped that the US side would "maintain policy stability". He spoke after meeting US climate envoy John Podesta in September.

Two days of pre-Cop talks in Baku earlier this month failed to resolve the deadlock. Mr Elgendy said uncertainty over the US election meant some countries were hesitant to announce new goals if the US could reverse its position.

"The key negotiation on climate finance - the New Collective Quantified Goal - is particularly sensitive to US political dynamics since it involves substantial financial commitments from developed nations," he said.

Trump win won’t end global climate action

Whether Mr Trump claims victory or not, experts believe that global climate action isn’t going to abruptly end despite the US election's implications.

The growth of wind and solar power and the decline of coal continued throughout Mr Trump’s term and it is unlikely to stop.

“Another way of saying this is that we have long moved past a world where countries only act on climate for altruistic reasons,” said Mr Evans.

“China's efforts to develop renewables, nuclear, batteries and electric vehicles is largely driven by its desire to boost energy security through reduced fossil fuel imports, as well as to develop the industries of the future,” he said.

“Pakistan has been installing record amounts of cheap solar capacity in response to a years-long electricity crisis and high costs for power from the grid.”

Mr Elgendy said the growth of solar was "unstoppable due to market forces and production capacity growth in China" but the broader question is the pace of change to meet the Paris deal.

"One president can accelerate or delay the energy transition especially on the domestic production front, but the long term trend appears unstoppable due to global momentum," he said.

Mr Ward said Mr Trump also risked undermining trillions of dollars of investment in renewables, electric vehicles and other green industries if he tried to slow down the pace of the transition in the US.

“This would have a damaging impact on the US economy, destroying jobs and creating the prospect of significant tariffs being imposed on American exports that are regarded as dirty compared to the domestic production of clean goods and services in other countries,” he said.

“In addition, Mr Trump is likely to find that he and the US become more isolated internationally, including at the G7 and G20, as other countries face up to the challenges posed by climate change, rather than pretending that they do not exist like Mr Trump.”

Climate change effects in the Middle East - in pictures