Are we alone in the universe? It remains one of the great unanswered questions of our age. Alien civilisations on other planets sound like the stuff of Hollywood blockbusters or science fiction novels, but a new study could offer a glimpse into why we have never encountered one.
It seems implausible that in a universe so vast that we should be the sole intelligent society. Which raises an obvious issue, why have we not uncovered the existence of extraterrestrial life anywhere in the cosmos by now?
A new study suggests that could be because they are too busy causing their own demise by heating up their planets through vast energy consumption. The study's findings offer a glimpse of a potentially grim future for Earth, should efforts to tackle climate change fall short.
They suggest that civilisations consuming similar amounts of energy to us would find their planets uninhabitable after a certain period, estimated be no longer than 1,000 years – even without burning fossil fuels.
The findings are “a bit of a shock”, says study co-author Dr Amedeo Balbi, an associate professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of Rome Tor Vergata.
“You have these results that were a bit surprising to ourselves, that only a few centuries will increase the temperature of the planet beyond the level at which it will be habitable,” he said.
“If you have this kind of exponential growth anywhere, it’s not, by definition, something that can last forever. Eventually everything will increase faster than any system will tolerate.”
Alone in the universe?
He said that might help to explain why, despite looking very hard with increasingly sophisticated technology, humans have yet to discover any other technological society, or even any other form of life, beyond planet Earth.
In previous generations there was what he described as “a lot of optimism” about finding other civilisations and a hope that we could become part of a “galactic club”.
“The fact of the matter is we haven’t found any evidence of that. When we look outside and look at the universe, it’s very silent,” Dr Balbi said. “Either they’re very well hidden or we haven’t looked very well, but that’s not true: we’ve been looking for quite a long time now.”
This could be because intelligent life is rare and it is hard to “climb the ladder of technological progress”. Or it could be because societies have continued to grow at an unsustainable rate.
“In either case, the humbling answer is there are probably not many old, long-lived technological civilisations out there,” he said.
Using complex mathematical calculations, the researchers determined the heating effect, and its impact on habitability when energy demand increased by one per cent annually. Last year electricity demand on Earth rose 2.5 per cent, according to the International Energy Agency.
“Our analysis suggests that, if the energy growth rate is of the order of one per cent per year, the maximal lifetime of such putative technospheres is ephemeral compared to stellar evolution,” the researchers wrote.
“Significant heating – which can drive the planet beyond potentially dangerous thresholds – due to exponential waste heat generation is predicted to occur on a short timescale of [less than or equal to] 1,000 years.”
The key issue is that when one form of energy is converted to another, some of that energy is dissipated or lost as heat, even if great efforts are made to avoid this loss.
“Whatever energy you use, there’s no way you can avoid producing waste heat, because that’s what the principles of thermodynamics tell us,” Dr Balbi said. “When you convert energy to do work, like using machines or electricity or whatever kind of conversion you do, eventually a fraction of this energy will be degraded and converted into heat and go into the environment.
“There are basic limits that tell you [that] you will never reach a perfect efficiency, you will never build a perfect engine. You will never convert all of the energy that you use into usable energy. You will always have some waste heat.”
To take an example on Earth, even an electric vehicle powered by renewable energy generates heat, such as in its tyres or its brakes. The heat generated by energy conversion ends up in the planet’s atmosphere and, while some will be lost to space, if the heat generation continues, as will be the case in growing societies, there will be planetary warming.
Is our fate sealed?
However, the research, which was co-authored by Dr Manasvi Lingam, of the Florida Institute of Technology, also suggests that if civilisations exist in a steady state instead of continuing to grow, their demise within hundreds of years is no longer inevitable.
“Maybe this kind of exponential growth that our civilisation, our society kept for the past few decades or century is not sustainable in the long term,” Dr Balbi said.
“Maybe one answer is to rethink the way we use energy or the way we grow. But there may be other answers that go in a different direction that are preferable for other people.
“One answer could be we just have to move elsewhere and transfer all our production and all our energy production and consumption somewhere else in space. Then we can keep growing and expanding for ever.”
Dr Balbi said that there were “reasons to be sceptical” about whether this would work, based on what is known about physics and the challenges of creating settlements away from Earth. But while he said he was unsure if humans could move elsewhere, it was a possibility.
“Maybe the solution will be in technological progress. We keep going and we find answers,” he said. “We have to have conversations about what’s best for our civilisation and for humanity in general.”
It could happen 'to any intelligent species'
Prof Peter Vickers, co-director of the Centre for Humanities Engaging Science and Society at Durham University in the UK, researches issues around the search for alien life. He said he was “sympathetic” to the idea that any other technological society would not last long.
“There has been literature arguing this for a while, mostly based on our own case that what’s happening here on Earth would plausibly happen to any intelligent species – a runaway effect of using natural resources beyond the breaking point,” he said.
He said that there was a consensus that if alien life existed, it would have evolved under the same laws of nature as those found on Earth, sometimes described as survival of the fittest, resulting in organisms that “overindulge in what’s available”.
“The species that can use tools the best is often going to be the most successful species and that’s probably going to be the case on any planet,” he said.
“Using tools leads to using technologies, which leads to extracting natural resources, which leads to, if you like, ruining your home.
“At some point they have to ask themselves 'are we overdoing it' and then it’s going to be really hard to go back on the track they’re on, because extracting natural resources brings such benefits in the short term.”
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
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No_One Ever Really Dies
N*E*R*D
(I Am Other/Columbia)
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Williams (14')
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
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The Orwell Prize for Political Writing
Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include:
- Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
- Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
- Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
- Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
- Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
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Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
