It is vital the Cop29 climate talks deliver a strong outcome despite entrenched positions on finance, climate advocates and experts say.
The pressure is on the Cop29 presidency to deliver an agreement that builds on the success of Cop28 in Dubai and lays the groundwork for Cop30 in Brazil next year.
Preparations are complicated because Azerbaijan had less time to organise the November 11 to 22 summit than other hosts due to its delayed selection over geopolitical wrangling. It is also expected to be a smaller gathering than previous years.
Cop29 also starts just days after crucial US elections that could see the return of climate change sceptic, Donald Trump, and comes before a hugely vital Cop in the south American country next year.
Dubai delivered the Global Stocktake – a report card for how the world is doing – where countries made the historic decision to transition away from fossil fuels.
Cop30 is crucial because countries need to come with revised climate plans – known as nationally determined contributions – to keep the 1.5ºC goal alive.
Now Baku needs to deliver on finance - how to pay for this transition and support those most vulnerable - but negotiators remain some distance apart.
“Waiting for another Cop is simply no longer an option,” said WaterAid climate expert, Patience Mukuyu, who said there needs to be a strong outcome on finance from the talks.
“It is the people around the world who have done the least to cause the climate crisis who continue to suffer from its devastating impacts – floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves and rising sea levels.”
New financial goal
Countries at Cop29 need to agree a new financial goal to replace from 2025 the $100bn pledge a year from developed countries to help developing countries deal with climate change. This is known as the “new collective quantified goal”. But countries remain at loggerheads on how to resolve this with a recent retreat convened by the presidency failing to break the deadlock.
“In short it is an agreement on the level of financial support and investment that rich countries should provide from public and private sources to help developing countries with their transition away from fossil fuels and to make themselves more resilient to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided,” said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the London School of Economics, who said Cop29 was a “really important summit” because of this.
“Without this financial support we are unlikely to see the level of action required in the future.”
Moustafa Bayoumi, climate change research fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, said he expects a broad agreement at Cop29 that makes it easier for the close to 200 parties to find common ground.
"I think that's what they will have to resort to because they are very tough negotiations and there are a lot of uncertainties," he said. "There are a lot of geopolitical tensions.
"Negotiators today still have not reached agreement on the quantity, quality or sources of finance. Some developed countries also want to broaden the donor base to include developing countries."
Ms Mukuyu added the world had changed a lot since 2009 when the old pledge was made.
“Progress on the NCQG at this year’s Cop could change the course of the future for those living on the frontlines of the climate crisis.”
US election casts long shadow
The US election takes place on November 5, just a few days before the summit opens.
Donald Trump has vowed to take the US out of the Paris climate deal for a second time if elected, imperilling global climate action from a global superpower and major greenhouse gas emitter.
Carbon Brief, the respected UK-based climate specialist website, published analysis stating a Trump victory could add 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030.
President Joe Biden has championed climate action but much remains to be known about the climate plan of Kamala Harris, US vice president and the Democratic Party's nominee if elected. However, she mentioned climate in her acceptance speech on Thursday and has a record of advocating for the environment.
"It is not going to change the negotiations immediately," said Mr Bayoumi. "But it will potentially cast a shadow on the mood because then people will know whatever we're going to negotiate here might be undone depending on the election results," he explained.
He suggested a Harris victory might bring a more positive mood at the talks with the expectation of continuity from the Biden administration and could be seen as a "sigh of relief" among climate activists.
No one adapts without water
The Cop29 presidency has been ramping up activity over the past few weeks. It has launched a billion-dollar climate fund, unveiled the thematic schedule for the event and announced a raft of other initiatives to drive action at Cop29.
Among them is an effort to bring water front and centre to the debate. Scientists believe hotter temperatures, changes in historical rainfall patterns, and water contamination, are putting pressure on water.
The “Baku Dialogue on Water and Climate” seeks to bring together governments, UN organisations, academia and the private sector to work on how to adapt to these new realities.
“Clean water, sanitation and hygiene are essential for people to adapt, building their resilience to continued climate change,” said Ms Mukuyu. “This must be at the heart of Cop29.”
A smaller Cop
Cop28 in Dubai was the largest ever staged with, according to the UNFCCC, about 85,000 participants and more than 150 heads of state.
Cop29, however, is expected to be a smaller affair with organisers expecting up to 50,000 attendees but others put the figure around 40,000.
Mr Bayoumi said the last few Cops had been trying to be more inclusive by bring in businesses and wider society. This boosted numbers and interest, but also put pressure on the talks.
"It's good to be inclusive but it also needs to be very well managed, otherwise the negotiators can get overwhelmed with the number of places they have to be in, the queues, etc. It becomes very taxing," he said.
Clock is ticking
Regional climate weeks that are typically held across the world to drive momentum for Cop were cancelled this year due to a lack of funds.
But The UN General Assembly, along with Climate Week New York City, that both take place in September could be seen as crucial signposts ahead of the November summit.
The climate week in particular is seeing a surge of interest – with 1,350 organisations applying for speaker slots, as opposed to just under 650 last year – but organisers said it wasn’t clear if this was related to a slimmed down Cop29.
“It could be the challenges around Cop29, but it could also be because Climate Week NYC has an increasingly high profile among businesses and governments,” noted Rik Goverde, the event’s director of programme and corporate communications.
“So it is a bit hard to say what the influence of the business-sentiment around Cop is, if any.”
The G20 summit in Brazil also takes place during the closing days of Cop29 so it remains to be seen how the geopolitical landscape will influence the outcomes that are due on November 22.
Two other UN gatherings on biodiversity in Colombia in October and on desertification in Saudi Arabia in December are also getting attention.
“Our message to world leaders is this: there is no time to waste," said Ms Mukuyu.
“Delivering the finance needed to ensure people can adapt to climate change is not aid, it is justice.”
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