It is vital the Cop29 climate talks deliver a strong outcome despite entrenched positions on finance, climate advocates and experts say.
The pressure is on the Cop29 presidency to deliver an agreement that builds on the success of Cop28 in Dubai and lays the groundwork for Cop30 in Brazil next year.
Preparations are complicated because Azerbaijan had less time to organise the November 11 to 22 summit than other hosts due to its delayed selection over geopolitical wrangling. It is also expected to be a smaller gathering than previous years.
Cop29 also starts just days after crucial US elections that could see the return of climate change sceptic, Donald Trump, and comes before a hugely vital Cop in the south American country next year.
Dubai delivered the Global Stocktake – a report card for how the world is doing – where countries made the historic decision to transition away from fossil fuels.
Cop30 is crucial because countries need to come with revised climate plans – known as nationally determined contributions – to keep the 1.5ºC goal alive.
Now Baku needs to deliver on finance - how to pay for this transition and support those most vulnerable - but negotiators remain some distance apart.
“Waiting for another Cop is simply no longer an option,” said WaterAid climate expert, Patience Mukuyu, who said there needs to be a strong outcome on finance from the talks.
“It is the people around the world who have done the least to cause the climate crisis who continue to suffer from its devastating impacts – floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves and rising sea levels.”
New financial goal
Countries at Cop29 need to agree a new financial goal to replace from 2025 the $100bn pledge a year from developed countries to help developing countries deal with climate change. This is known as the “new collective quantified goal”. But countries remain at loggerheads on how to resolve this with a recent retreat convened by the presidency failing to break the deadlock.
“In short it is an agreement on the level of financial support and investment that rich countries should provide from public and private sources to help developing countries with their transition away from fossil fuels and to make themselves more resilient to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided,” said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the London School of Economics, who said Cop29 was a “really important summit” because of this.
“Without this financial support we are unlikely to see the level of action required in the future.”
Moustafa Bayoumi, climate change research fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, said he expects a broad agreement at Cop29 that makes it easier for the close to 200 parties to find common ground.
"I think that's what they will have to resort to because they are very tough negotiations and there are a lot of uncertainties," he said. "There are a lot of geopolitical tensions.
"Negotiators today still have not reached agreement on the quantity, quality or sources of finance. Some developed countries also want to broaden the donor base to include developing countries."
Ms Mukuyu added the world had changed a lot since 2009 when the old pledge was made.
“Progress on the NCQG at this year’s Cop could change the course of the future for those living on the frontlines of the climate crisis.”
US election casts long shadow
The US election takes place on November 5, just a few days before the summit opens.
Donald Trump has vowed to take the US out of the Paris climate deal for a second time if elected, imperilling global climate action from a global superpower and major greenhouse gas emitter.
Carbon Brief, the respected UK-based climate specialist website, published analysis stating a Trump victory could add 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030.
President Joe Biden has championed climate action but much remains to be known about the climate plan of Kamala Harris, US vice president and the Democratic Party's nominee if elected. However, she mentioned climate in her acceptance speech on Thursday and has a record of advocating for the environment.
"It is not going to change the negotiations immediately," said Mr Bayoumi. "But it will potentially cast a shadow on the mood because then people will know whatever we're going to negotiate here might be undone depending on the election results," he explained.
He suggested a Harris victory might bring a more positive mood at the talks with the expectation of continuity from the Biden administration and could be seen as a "sigh of relief" among climate activists.
No one adapts without water
The Cop29 presidency has been ramping up activity over the past few weeks. It has launched a billion-dollar climate fund, unveiled the thematic schedule for the event and announced a raft of other initiatives to drive action at Cop29.
Among them is an effort to bring water front and centre to the debate. Scientists believe hotter temperatures, changes in historical rainfall patterns, and water contamination, are putting pressure on water.
The “Baku Dialogue on Water and Climate” seeks to bring together governments, UN organisations, academia and the private sector to work on how to adapt to these new realities.
“Clean water, sanitation and hygiene are essential for people to adapt, building their resilience to continued climate change,” said Ms Mukuyu. “This must be at the heart of Cop29.”
A smaller Cop
Cop28 in Dubai was the largest ever staged with, according to the UNFCCC, about 85,000 participants and more than 150 heads of state.
Cop29, however, is expected to be a smaller affair with organisers expecting up to 50,000 attendees but others put the figure around 40,000.
Mr Bayoumi said the last few Cops had been trying to be more inclusive by bring in businesses and wider society. This boosted numbers and interest, but also put pressure on the talks.
"It's good to be inclusive but it also needs to be very well managed, otherwise the negotiators can get overwhelmed with the number of places they have to be in, the queues, etc. It becomes very taxing," he said.
Clock is ticking
Regional climate weeks that are typically held across the world to drive momentum for Cop were cancelled this year due to a lack of funds.
But The UN General Assembly, along with Climate Week New York City, that both take place in September could be seen as crucial signposts ahead of the November summit.
The climate week in particular is seeing a surge of interest – with 1,350 organisations applying for speaker slots, as opposed to just under 650 last year – but organisers said it wasn’t clear if this was related to a slimmed down Cop29.
“It could be the challenges around Cop29, but it could also be because Climate Week NYC has an increasingly high profile among businesses and governments,” noted Rik Goverde, the event’s director of programme and corporate communications.
“So it is a bit hard to say what the influence of the business-sentiment around Cop is, if any.”
The G20 summit in Brazil also takes place during the closing days of Cop29 so it remains to be seen how the geopolitical landscape will influence the outcomes that are due on November 22.
Two other UN gatherings on biodiversity in Colombia in October and on desertification in Saudi Arabia in December are also getting attention.
“Our message to world leaders is this: there is no time to waste," said Ms Mukuyu.
“Delivering the finance needed to ensure people can adapt to climate change is not aid, it is justice.”
The effects of climate change on the Middle East region – in pictures
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
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Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
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The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
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How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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The biog
Title: General Practitioner with a speciality in cardiology
Previous jobs: Worked in well-known hospitals Jaslok and Breach Candy in Mumbai, India
Education: Medical degree from the Government Medical College in Nagpur
How it all began: opened his first clinic in Ajman in 1993
Family: a 90-year-old mother, wife and two daughters
Remembers a time when medicines from India were purchased per kilo
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
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RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
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Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 2 (Willems 25', Shelvey 88')
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
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The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
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Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)
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WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
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All the Money in the World
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Four stars
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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'Saand Ki Aankh'
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5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions Dh90,000 2,200m
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6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m
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6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige Dh100,000 1,600m
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7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
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8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1 Dh5,000,000 1,600m
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