The rainstorms that struck the UAE and Oman last week were between 10 per cent and 40 per cent more intense due to climate change, a major research body has said.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) research initiative found greenhouse gas emissions caused the storms to be far more destructive than they would have been in the pre-industrial era.
The El Nino climate pattern and global warming together meant the storms were particularly destructive.
Twenty people died in Oman and four were killed in the Emirates when a series of storms battered the Gulf nations. Dubai and Sharjah were struck by four waves of rainstorms, leaving large parts of the cities badly flooded.
If it had not been an El Nino year, it would have not have rained in this way. But at the same time, if it had not been for climate change, it would not have rained as heavily as it did
Friederike Otto,
Imperial College London and World Weather Attribution
“If it had not been an El Nino year, it would have not have rained in this way. But at the same time, if it had not been for climate change, it would not have rained as heavily as it did,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and a WWA researcher.
“Both were important factors for driving this event.”
A separate team of scientists in January found that by the middle of this century, annual rain in the UAE may rise by up to 30 per cent. More than 250 millimetres (10 inches) fell on Dubai over two days last week.
Despite modern infrastructure and an early-warning system, WWA said 80 per cent of people in Oman and 85 per cent of those in the UAE live on low-lying, flood-prone ground.
Speaking to The National, Dr Hylke Beck, assistant professor at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, said the Gulf nations will need to prepare for a wetter future.
"The general consensus in the scientific community is that as the atmosphere warms up, it can hold about seven per cent more moisture for every degree Celsius that it warms," said Dr Beck, who co-authored the Climate Futures Report, a major analysis published last year that looked at the effects of climate change on the Arabian peninsula.
"That means when there’s more water available … this can lead to much heavier rainfall."
By the end of the century, the most severe rainfall event in the UAE in any given year is expected to be 10 to 15 per cent more intense than is the case now, according to climate models based on a "moderate" greenhouse gas emission scenario, Dr Beck said.
The Climate Futures Report also highlighted the risk that rising sea levels would contribute to increased coastal flooding and erosion, storm surges and saltwater contamination of groundwater.
Another notable rainfall event happened in 2016, when Dubai experienced more than 240mm of rainfall and suffered severe flooding.
Riyadh and Jeddah are among the other cities in the region that have been affected by deadly flash floods in recent decades.
Another scientist who researches climate change in the region, Prof Jos Lelieveld, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany and The Cyprus Institute, said it was not possible to say that a single event, such as the recent extreme rainfall in the UAE, had happened because of climate change.
However, Prof Lelieveld said that while it may have taken place without climate change, it would have been less likely.
"You can say in general these types of events are likely to become more common because of climate change," he added.
Urbanisation trapping flood water
"You cannot make a specific prediction for Dubai, but in the Middle East, not so much in the summer but in the winter, spring and to some extent in the autumn, such events are more likely in the future."
The region is particularly vulnerable to severe flooding for a number of reasons, among them that most rainfall tends to be "short duration and very intense", Dr Beck said.
The soil in the region is often very hard and dry, so it does not absorb water easily, Dr Beck said, while there is little vegetation to slow run-off.
Also, there has been a massive increase in the scale of urban areas, so there is less bare ground to absorb rainwater. Population increases mean the risk that flooding will lead to casualties is greater.
The recent storm and the one in 2016, Dr Beck said, are the result of what it called a mesoscale convective system, which involves moist air from the Arabian Gulf converging in regions of low pressure.
The air then rises, expands and cools, causing the water vapour to condense and form clouds that result in significant rainfall.
Research has shown, Dr Beck said, that mesoscale convective systems have increased in duration over the UAE during the past two decades.
"Natural hazard early warning systems are very important to prepare and respond and reduce the damage and loss of life and in the case of floods these early-warning systems have proven to be super useful," he said.
"The drainage systems were really put to the test and they didn’t quite hold up – the airport was flooded, roads. This shows how important it is to beef up the flood defences, improve the stormwater infrastructure and the drainage systems."
Creating floodwater infrastructure, including lakes and drainage systems, that can cope with the most severe events is not easy, he acknowledged, given the "huge amounts" of water that appear in a short space of time.
Aside from actually creating the drainage systems, Dr Beck said maintenance was essential, as they easily become clogged up with sand if not cleared out regularly.
"It’s very hard to maintain these reservoirs, these infrastructure drainage systems, very costly," he said.
"We don’t know what’s going to happen with climate change. Perhaps they’re sufficient for current conditions but not for future conditions."
UAE flooding clean-up - in pictures
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
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if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
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Jawan
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LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
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Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
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Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
