Iraq faces lengthy political wrangling over the formation of a new government, with Iran-aligned political blocs leading the talks after parliamentary elections last week.
Post-election talks between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties typically last for months, with constitutional deadlines often being missed. Final results and seat numbers showed that about a third of Iraq's parliament is made up of factions close to Tehran.
The first major move was made this week by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who announced he was once again joining the main Shiite alliance – the Co-ordination Framework. That gives the bloc an outright majority of nearly 175 seats in the 329-seat parliament.
The biggest bloc in parliament will have to nominate the next prime minister. Mr Al Sudani has his eyes on a second term but there is no guarantee he will remain in the post, despite his bloc coming first in the election with 46 seats.
No single party has won a majority of the seats in votes held since 2003 and the country's electoral system is designed to prevent the monopolisation of a single ruling party. But this often means there is a long road to form a government.
Groups within the Co-ordination Framework, which includes members with ties to Iran, also performed well at the polls, with some winning more seats than in previous elections.
“The main Shiite parties have done well and certainly the Shiite Co-ordination Framework will have significance,” Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House in London, told The National.
However, they will still need to form a wider coalition and alliances with the main Kurdish and Sunni groups, to ensure full governance in parliament, he said.
Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq expert at the Century Foundation think tank in New York, said he expected there to be a Shiite majority in parliament. “They will have a majority of seats in the parliament, over 165, probably around the sort of 180, 175 mark. So they will have a majority and I think that’s in line with what has happened in the past, so it's not really a surprise,” he told The National.
Mr Al Sudani will be part of the Co-ordination Framework and, even though he has non-Shiite politicians in his coalition, will be able to “contribute" given the number of seats in his bloc.
The Co-ordination Framework seems "confident that the government formation will not take as long as last time, which took over just around a year, because they feel they have the numbers at the moment", Mr Mansour added.
The two largest Shiite blocs after Mr Al Sudani’s coalition are former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coalition and the Sadiqoun Bloc – linked to the Asaib Ahl Al Haq militia. Both oppose giving Mr Al Sudani a second term.
The Sadiqoun Bloc is led by Qais Al Khazali, a militia leader designated as a global terrorist by the US, and made significant gains in the vote, winning 27 seats.
“Running as an independent list for the first time, this success in the central and southern provinces reflects Khazali's rebranding efforts to frame himself as an Iraq-first statesman,” Inna Rudolf, a research fellow at the Centre for Statecraft and National Security, told The National. It also “established his movement as a key stakeholder in the upcoming government formation process", she said.
Shiite armed groups linked to the Popular Mobilisation Forces managed to secure clear political influence based on seats won, Ms Rudolf added.
Many of Iraq’s Iran-backed groups “have adopted precautionary measures to ensure their survival and institutional gains", she said. “They have now prioritised self-preservation and entrenchment within the Iraqi state apparatus as a form of insurance policy."
But Shayan Talabany, senior Middle East analyst at the Tony Blair Institute, said it was "far too early to declare whether Iran-aligned actors, or any external patron, hold an upper hand".
“What stands out this cycle is the rise of a younger generation across Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs,” Ms Talabany said. “They’re not newcomers. Many have spent two decades observing, learning and quietly consolidating economic and political networks."
How those groups "negotiate their relationship with the old guard” will determine their future within the political framework, she added.
The main challenge for the next government will be to address long-standing grievances over poor public services, corruption and unemployment – issues that have fuelled mass protests in recent years. They will also need to appoint the country's new leaders.
In Iraq, the prime minister must be Shiite, a Sunni must hold the role of parliament speaker and the largely ceremonial presidency is to go to a Kurd.
The Kurdistan region held its own parliamentary elections last year but government formation talks largely faltered owing to disputes between its ruling parties. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) secured more than a million votes in the federal election, consolidating its position as the strongest and largest Kurdish party.
The role of Iraq's president has typically gone to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) since 2003. It is currently held by Abdul Latif Rashid – uncle of PUK leader Bafel Talabani. Several names have been touted as a possible successor, but Ms Talabany noted that, given its election performance, the KDP may push to choose the next president. “Mohammed Al Halbousi has expressed interest, though most expect he is aiming to return as Speaker,” she said.
