A war, but not before the Pope’s visit.
In Lebanon, rumours are circulating about a possible military escalation after the pontiff’s inaugural trip, during which, the joke says, he would offer his final blessing before Israel unleashes its firepower on the country.
Escalating strikes on southern Lebanon in recent weeks, coupled with increasingly aggressive Israeli rhetoric, have left many Lebanese anxious over the prospect of a full-scale war, nearly a year since a shaky ceasefire was supposed to end 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which had culminated in two months of open war.
Israel has accused Hezbollah, whose military capabilities were greatly damaged by Israel’s ground and air campaign, of rearming. It has signalled that it could step up operations in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Israel Katz warning on November 2 that “maximum enforcement will continue, and even intensify".
Four days later, Israel carried out a wide wave of strikes after issuing eviction orders for five villages in southern Lebanon. Over the past year, Israel has conducted near-daily strikes in violation of the ceasefire, claiming to be targeting Hezbollah positions, but has rarely issued eviction orders since the truce.
The bombing notices, posted on the Israeli army’s social media accounts, were a grim reminder of a dreaded and common Israeli tactic during the two months of full-blown war.
Yet, diplomats, analysts and Hezbollah sources told The National they do not expect a full-blown aerial campaign in the near term, despite escalating Israeli threats.
They argued that Israel has largely benefited from the current status quo – a so-called ceasefire agreed in November last year, under which Hezbollah stopped firing at its archenemy, while Israel has continued to strike the country at will, with little to no international condemnation.
Unifil, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, has documented thousands of ceasefire violations by Israel since last year, including air strikes and ground incursions, which have prevented tens of thousands of people from returning to border towns.
While Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah, civilians have also borne the brunt: at least 111 have been killed in Israeli shelling during the ceasefire, according to the United Nations.
Disarming Hezbollah 'today', not 'tomorrow'
Gen Mounir Shehadeh, who was the Lebanese government's co-ordinator with Unifil from 2021 to 2023, said Israel did not need to engage in a dramatic escalation, as it has already managed to impose a de facto reality of freedom of movement.
“It bombs what it wants, when it wants; there is no deterrent,” he told The National.
The recent intensification of Israeli strikes, he argued, is meant to “pressure Lebanon by fire,” forcing it to carry out Israel’s demands: the complete and rapid disarmament of the once-formidable, and still influential, militia.
Since September, Lebanon has been implementing an army plan to disarm Hezbollah, in line with the ceasefire's terms, without setting a deadline for it.
Lebanon has taken historic steps to dismantle the group’s armed presence, with the army saying Hezbollah’s military infrastructure has been largely removed south of the Litani River. But Israel has criticised the pace as far too slow, accusing Lebanon of dragging its feet.
Hezbollah has repeatedly refused to surrender its weapons, insisting on Thursday that it has a “legitimate right” to resist Israel. Yet, the group has not impeded the army’s efforts in the south, and has not fired at Israel since the ceasefire.
“Israel’s demands are: disarming Hezbollah today, not tomorrow,” Gen Shehadeh said.
To pressure Lebanon to act faster, Israel may escalate further, reaching Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah is influential, or striking deeper inside Lebanon, without starting a full-scale campaign, he added.
Negotiations under fire
A western diplomatic source said Israel didn’t need a full-blown war to reach its goals. “They still manage to secure a ceasefire, meaning an end to attacks from Lebanese territory, while they have also kept the right to carry out so-called ‘pre-emptive’ strikes,” they said.
The western diplomat added that Israel’s recent escalations in south Lebanon could be part of a strategy to pressure Beirut; a negotiations-under-fire approach.
But analysts and diplomatic sources have repeatedly warned that Israel’s maximalist posture risks weakening Lebanon’s new leadership: US-backed President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, an international lawyer, a duo widely welcomed by the international community as reformist.
On Monday, Mr Aoun said Lebanon had “no option” but to engage in dialogue with Israel, after US envoy Tom Barrack called Lebanon a “failed state,” signalling Washington’s frustration with the slow pace of Hezbollah’s disarmament.
But after Thursday's strikes, Mr Aoun struck a sharper tone, saying that the more Beirut "expresses its openness to a peaceful negotiation approach to resolve the outstanding issues with Israel, the more it intensifies its aggression".
The diplomatic source argued that some of the fast-spreading reports of a looming full-blown war may also come from Hezbollah opposition within Lebanon, which has long pushed for the group’s disarmament, and is keen to see its historic rival defeated.
Heavy diplomatic pressure
Heavy diplomatic pressure remains on Israeli attacks not to tip into a full-scale war. “Since the Gaza ceasefire, the momentum has been towards de-escalation. The worst is behind us, in principle,” the western diplomat said.
Hezbollah also sees the current geopolitical context as not conducive to further escalation in Lebanon. A Hezbollah source said that while the US and Egypt had conveyed concerns that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was inclined towards escalation, mediators have prioritised a negotiation approach to prevent it.
Any war on Lebanon, the Hezbollah source added, would require a US green light, one they believe is unlikely to be granted. “The US is now interested in calm and stability across the region in order to enable a major reconciliation, and Donald Trump is interested in stopping wars,” the source told The National.
The Hezbollah source also argued that it was unlikely Mr Netanyahu would risk once again displacing residents of northern communities, whose return was among the stated goals of the recent war. Northern residents were allowed to return to their communities only in March, and did not fully come back to this day.
None of the sources, however, fully ruled out the possibility of a major escalation. “Of course, with this Israeli government, anything is possible at any moment. There are no rules either. It is difficult to analyse Israel’s behaviour rationally,” the western diplomat said.
