A once-bustling Syrian town that is home to a strategic Russian military airbase is now a pale shadow of its former self, yet at the centre of geopolitics.
In a way, the hollowed-out, mainly Alawite town of Hmeimim has become a symbol of the transitional government’s consolidation of power in parts of Syria once held by deposed president Bashar Al Assad, Russia’s former ally.
Whereas the town’s shops – their signs written in Arabic and Cyrillic, an indication of their past Russian clientele – would once stay open late into the night, they now close by late afternoon.
Russian patrols are no longer permitted to leave the base without prior co-ordination with Syria’s new authorities, and off-duty soldiers no longer walk freely in the town.
Bullet holes and scorch marks are visible on every corner, a reminder of the coastal massacres in March that caused half of the population to flee. Hmeimim’s remaining residents, under the watchful eye of Syrian government patrols and checkpoints, are wary of newcomers.
“It used to be always crowded and full of life,” one of the few remaining shop owners, who declined to give his name out of fear of retribution, told The National.
He said most of the residents left for Russia or Lebanon after the March violence, when a crackdown launched by government forces on a nascent pro-Assad insurgency in the coastal area turned into a spree of sectarian killings.
Those who stayed are now afraid to go out of their homes after dusk, he said, and the town’s economic life, once driven by Russian soldiers, is in tatters. Many inhabitants declined to speak because of the sensitivity of the topic.
The small town is now at the centre of one of the thorniest issues in Syria’s foreign affairs: the continuing presence of the Russian military in the country, which has been thrown into question after the fall of the Assad regime.
Russia still operates three bases in Syria – besides Hmeimim, there is a naval station in Tartus further south and a smaller base in Qamishli in the north-east. Moscow is keen to retain them due to Syria’s strategic location.
Until Mr Al Assad’s fall, Russia viewed Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the rebel group that led his ousting in December and now anchors Syria's government, as a terrorist group.
Moscow backed Mr Al Assad during the Syrian civil war, launching deadly air strikes on rebel-held areas for nearly a decade.
But since Mr Al Assad’s ousting, both sides have shown pragmatism, engaging in talks that analysts have said are an example of realpolitik. Months of back-channel negotiations led to the unprecedented meeting between Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara and his Russian counterpart and former nemesis, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow this month.
A few days after the fall of the Assad regime, The National was granted rare access to the Hmeimim airbase, and was able to interview HTS and military officials.
Inside the base, a Russian military representative told The National they wanted “friendly relations” with a government that would soon be “legitimate”.
An HTS source said the group wanted to request the extradition of Mr Assad either to Syria or the International Criminal Court. The former president is in exile in Moscow, after reportedly fleeing Syria through Hmeimim.
The claims by the HTS and Russian officials have come to pass.
Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the negotiations between the former sworn enemies were merely “transactional”.
Russia needs to engage with the new Syrian government if it wants to secure its military foothold in Syria, which it has historically viewed as strategic because of its position at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, providing a hub for its operations in Africa. “Russian economic influence in Syria will matter at least as much as its access to military bases,” she added, referring to potential business deals, notably in the energy and phosphate sectors.
senior fellow at the Washington Institute
“The fall of the Assad regime was not the strategic defeat for Russia to the extent that people have portrayed,” she explained.
As delicate negotiations continue, it remains unclear what compromises each side is willing to make to safeguard its interests.
About 10 months after The National’s first visit to Hmeimin, authorities have tightened their control around the Russian airbase, repainted its entrance in the colours of the country's new identity, and adorned it with its new national emblem – a golden eagle. Access for media has also been considerably restricted.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to The National’s request for comment on the continuing talks.
Realpolitik talks
Russia-Syria specialist and author Ruslan Trad said Russia will probably retain its military bases in Syria following the meeting of the presidents on October 15, during which Mr Al Shara said Damascus would respect all previous deals struck with Moscow, without explicitly mentioning the military bases.
Experts said that Damascus hopes that the Russian military presence will help to deter future Israeli strikes, which intensified after the fall of the Assad regime.
Despite Syria's new authorities not having shown hostility, Israel has said it does not trust them because of their hardline Islamist background. It has launched repeated air strikes across Syria, including on the capital, destroyed much of its heavy arsenal, and invaded vast areas in the south.
“This represents a strategic compromise: Syria gains a potential counterweight to Israeli military pressure while Russia preserves its only Mediterranean military foothold and logistical hub for operations in Africa,” Mr Trad said.
Another reported concession from Russia is to help Syria in enforcing the Disengagement Treaty, which created a buffer zone along the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and the resumption of the 2018 arrangement under the Assad regime, under which Russian forces helped to patrol the border area.
But Russia's ability to deter Israeli operations is “limited”, Mr Trad said.
“Moscow has historically imposed restrictions on Israeli Air Force movements but has never prevented strikes entirely, using this dynamic as leverage over both parties,” he said.
He added that Mr Al Assad's extradition from Russia was “highly unlikely”.
“Moscow views Assad as a litmus test of its reliability as an ally, abandoning him would signal to other authoritarian partners that Russian protection is conditional and unreliable”.
Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute, said Syria's broad-based approach to foreign affairs could backfire in the long run.
“For now, it makes sense because Syria is in a weakened position,” he told The National.
As Syria opens official talks with Russia, it has also been seeking to rekindle its ties with Moscow’s rivals, including the US and some EU countries.
“At a certain point, you’ve got to have your friends and you’ve got to have your adversaries. Especially now, in a world defined by competition among major powers, or you risk alienating everyone,” Mr Zelin said.
A 'deal with the devil'
For many who suffered Russian bombardment of besieged rebel-held areas during the war, the thought of a national alliance with Russia is difficult to swallow.
“The Russians have killed and destroyed Syria. We would never be in such a disastrous situation if it weren’t for Russia’s intervention,” Nader Debo, 39, from Deraa in southern Syria, told The National. “It's a political mistake from every perspective. Mr Al Shara might lose supporters in regions where Russia’s bombardment was intense.
“It’s also naive. Russia’s presence will never deter Israel from attacking us. It never did under Assad. Russia just wants its economic interests. We don’t need them to extradite Bashar, we will get him ourselves,” he added.
But for others, such as Hasan, not his real name, who, like thousands of other Alawites, took refuge at the Hmeimim base during the March massacres, Russia presents a reassuring counterweight to a government accused of neglecting to protect its minorities.
“Russia has protected us until now, but we still need more guarantees,” said Hasan, a former soldier who surrendered his weapons as part of the reconciliation initiative that followed the fall of the Assad regime.
“We will make a deal with the devil if this means that we can stay safe."
