Lebanon will go to the polls in May for crucial parliamentary elections – but already there is a problem.
At its heart is a law that would severely restrict who Lebanon's large and influential diaspora can cast votes for. Under the law, which dates back to 2017 but was never implemented in the 2018 or 2022 elections, diaspora voters would only be allowed to cast their votes for a newly created bloc of six MPs, as opposed to all 128 seats as has previously been the case.
Detractors say it treats the diaspora as second-class citizens and violates the policy of equality enshrined in Article 7 of the Lebanese constitution, which says that Lebanese enjoy “civil and political rights equally”.
“I think it's unfair and it makes me so sad, because we left our country to find better opportunities, since in our country there is a lack of opportunity,” said Nada Arafat, a member of the Lebanese diaspora. “We are sending money to our families, we are visiting Lebanon, we are spending money there. So it's very unfair,” she added.
More than half of MPs are now seeking to overturn the offending Article 122, but they have come up against the immovable presence of the powerful Speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri. And with registration for diaspora voters already open, they are running out of time.
“This law takes away the basic rights of the Lebanese living abroad,” said Paula Yacoubian, often regarded as the first truly independent MP without affiliation to the old powers, who entered parliament in 2018.
“The message is 'we don't want you to participate in shaping the future of the country. We don't want you to be part of the decision-making,” she said. In essence, it treats the diaspora as a group of second-class citizens, the detractors of the law say.
“The way the law stands is definitely unfair for many reasons, at many fronts and on many levels,” said former deputy prime minister Ghassan Hasbani. Mr Hasbani is now a senior MP for the Lebanese Forces, parliament's largest party and one of the most vocal opponents of Hezbollah. “The diaspora would be treated as a different class of citizens, and this contradicts the principle of fairness,” he added.
What particularly aggrieves critics of the law is that many in the diaspora were forced to leave the country and pursue opportunities elsewhere because the situation was so desperate in Lebanon. Now they are being told they cannot fully engage in the future of their country.
“The establishment in Lebanon is treating the expats only as an ATM,” said Ms Yacoubian. “They want their remittances but at the same time they don't want to give them the right to be able to have a say in Lebanon's future.”
Lebanon has been entrenched in a series of crises in recent years; such as the economic crisis that broke out in 2019, which has been described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history, and the deadly 2020 Beirut blast and Israel's destruction and occupation of Lebanon last year.
During the peak of one of those crises – the 2019 economic crash, which was blamed on serial corruption and financial mismanagement by Lebanon's ruling elite – diaspora remittances were one of the only things keeping the economy and country alive.
“The diaspora contribute around $8 billion in remittances, not to mention any other investments and support for the country, where they are and where they reside, and any businesses they conduct back with the country, which has a major impact on the economy,” said Mr Hasbani.
“Today, the country has survived five years post-crisis, or any crisis, predominantly due to the cash that comes from the diaspora, without any aid or any significant aid from anyone else. So they should have a major say in the way parliament works and in the local, internal politics of the country,” he added.
Nonetheless, there are supporters of the law, including Hezbollah, the once highly influential political party and armed group that has been significantly weakened by its war with Israel last year.
The group is sanctioned by many countries that are home to large sections of the diaspora – in North America, Europe and the Gulf. The Hezbollah spokesman Youssef Zein told The National that this means the group is unable to campaign as effectively abroad as its opponents.
MPs have repeatedly sought to bring an amendment to Article 122 on to the agenda, but Mr Berri has thus far refused to allow it. The long-time speaker and ally of Hezbollah also heads the Shiite Amal Movement, which supports the law in its current form.
It is at him that much of the ire is directed. “The Speaker of parliament is not playing his role as an independent speaker at equal distance from everyone,” said Mr Hasbani. “He's actually playing his role as a political party with a vested interest in basically limiting the involvement of the diaspora in the shape of parliament internally, because he stands to lose the most – him and his allies.”
So attached is Mr Berri to the law that he recently stated that: “Only the Bible and the Quran surpass it.” This month the battle escalated further when MPs submitted a draft fast-track law to essentially allow the diaspora to vote for all 128 MPs – but Mr Berri did not include it on the agenda.
“What happened last Monday was an attempt by Nabih Berri to say, I rule the parliament and I decide whatever I want, even if it's against the law,” said Ms Yacoubian. “So he is supposed to put the urgent laws on the first legislative session that we have. He did not do that for many, many sessions.”
Political calculations are also part of the battle. The diaspora vote is not so large that it could lead to an overwhelming swing. But it is still significant; in 2022, around 140,000 people voted from abroad, 7 seven per cent of the votes.
In 2022, diaspora voters were more likely to favour the Lebanese Forces or reform-minded independent MPs such as Ms Yacoubian than their traditional parliamentary opponents such as Hezbollah or the Amal Movement. However, municipal elections earlier this year showed support for reform-minded candidates waned, while Hezbollah's traditional support base remained strong.
The Lebanese Forces is also seeking to expand its share of the Christian vote at the expense of its main sectarian rival the Free Patriotic Movement, the party founded by former president Michel Aoun, which lost seats in the 2022 polls.
Opponents of Hezbollah, which is under significant pressure to disarm, say their current move is an effort to offset any potential voter damage from next year's elections as it reels from last year's war.
“This is a survival game by Hezbollah and allies. They want to keep a big presence in parliament. They want to continue monopolising the Shia representation in Parliament by coercion, by force, by limiting the number of people who can freely vote,” said Mr Hasbani.
“So they are pushing to limit the diaspora involvement so that they can maximise their presence and that of their allies and like-thinkers, those who think alike and can support them.”
