Fears of voter apathy loom over Iraq’s upcoming election

Fallah Al Rawaf, 57, has never bothered getting his Iraqi voter ID as he does not believe his vote would change anything. “It’s the same ruling class. Nothing changes,” the seller of antiques in downtown Baghdad told The National.

Mr Al Rawaf's shop is on Al Rashid Street, a historic street located in the city centre, which has been undergoing a facelift in recent months. After decades of neglect, the street is now lined with dozens of freshly painted shops, windows still covered in plastic, with gleaming new signs in golden lettering.

The refurbishment of the area is one of many development projects launched by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s government ahead of Iraq's sixth parliamentary election since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Despite the construction frenzy gripping the capital, Mr Al Rawaf says Iraqis’ main demands, such as basic services, have yet to be met.

“Yes, the infrastructure may look good to outsiders, but it only benefits the officials and their relatives,” he said, speaking above the rattle of passing carts full of goods and the whine of a drill in the background. "But true change begins with providing people with decent living conditions, not just buildings.”

The section of street where his dilapidated shop is located has yet to be renovated, and Mr Al Rawaf said he does not know if it ever will be. He has given up hope that his country will grant him his rights, including access to affordable electricity, education and health care.

Like Mr Al Rawaf, many Iraqis doubt their votes will bring about real change. Observers have warned of a possible repeat of the 2021 election, when only four in 10 registered voters cast ballots.

Iraqis’ political disenchantment deepened after the brutal suppression of youth-led protests to demand change in 2019, driving many to leave the country or abandon politics, while sectarian and elite power structures have remained largely unchanged.

Iraq’s electoral commission said on Thursday that 21.4 million people have been issued biometric cards required to vote, meaning that nearly a third of the 30 million Iraqis eligible to vote have not registered for the polls. Voter registration for the election, scheduled for November 11, closed in June.

Calls to boycott the election have grown amid allegations of vote-buying and corruption, including from Moqtada Al Sadr, a popular Shiite cleric who has refused to take part in what he described as a “paralysed electoral process” and urges his followers to do likewise.

Facing the prospect of low turnout, Mr Al Sudani, who is seeking a second term with the support of a political alliance called the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, urged Iraqis on Tuesday to cast their ballots.

“A single vote carries weight and can bring about positive change,” he said at a conference to launch the Iraq Democracy Observatory (IDO), a platform set up to monitor democratic practices ahead of the vote.

He warned that abstention would mean “the rise of a corrupt alternative, where personal interests override those of the people”.

Militias and entrenched parties

The elections are expected to be closely contested among Iraq’s main religious and ethnic groups. Mr Al Sudani is seen as a front-runner, having secured the backing of some, but not all, elements of the powerful Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), who helped him take office in October 2022 after a year of political deadlock following the 2021 election.

The umbrella group of mostly Shiite, Iran-aligned factions was formed to fight ISIS after the extremist group seized large parts of Iraq in 2014. Now recognised as part of the state's security services, the PMF's military strength and political influence have increased greatly since ISIS was defeated in 2017.

Mr Al Sudani's main rival is Nouri Al Maliki, a former prime minister and head of the State of Law Coalition, who enjoys support from some Iran-aligned militias and parties.

Sajjad Salem, an independent member of Parliament who will be running under the Alternative (Al Badeel) Coalition in Wasit province, says Iraqis remain doubtful that real change is possible because of the grip of traditional political parties and the influence of Iran-backed militias acting outside of state control.

“Most people think the outcome will be predictable because the dominance of weapons is clear. The armed power of militias and factions is moving towards becoming the Iraqi state and taking control of it,” he told The National on the sidelines of the IDO launch.

“This is dangerous; this is why our presence is needed to entrench the idea of the Iraqi state."

Successive governments have struggled to keep Iraq’s multitude of Iran-backed militias in check. While the PMF was formally placed under the command of the Iraqi military in 2016, some groups continue to operate outside state control and are widely seen as taking orders from Tehran.

“When the state grows stronger, militias and armed groups become weaker. That is why we strive to ensure that weapons are in the hands of the state,” said Hussein El Arab, another independent MP.

But he is hopeful the political model may change.

“I think turnout will be high, especially among young people between 18 and 25," he said. I have seen great enthusiasm among this age group to go to the ballot boxes.”

Iraq has a predominantly young population, with nearly 60 per under the age of 25. The electoral authority said the number young eligible voters has risen sharply, with more than 1 million people born in 2007 set to cast their ballots for the first time in the upcoming election.

Mohamed Ammar, who is in his 20s, works in one of the newly renovated shops on Al Rashid street. He said he feels “proud” of this new face of Baghdad.

“Even though there’s still some rubbish, it’s nothing compared to before. Before, you couldn’t imagine taking a picture in the street. Now, it’s beautiful, something that reflects the heritage of the country. Everywhere you walk, you see it,” he said.

Still, he said he was unsure whether he will vote, as are about half his friends. He doubts his voice can make a difference and is resigned to the idea that Iraq’s future may not depend on his ballot.

“I’m happy now, but I don’t know about the future. It’s Iraq – things can change in the snap of a finger; maybe tomorrow everything collapses,” he said.