UN experts say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Now what?

UN investigators have concluded that Israel is committing four of the five acts that constitute genocide in Gaza.

In a 72-page report, independent experts detailed “direct evidence” of deliberate intent and acts of genocide against Palestinians.

While the document does not have immediate legally binding consequences, analysts and human rights experts say it holds weight as it extensively documents acts and intent of genocide, making it harder for countries to ignore the findings or claim plausible deniability.

"This report is significant because it reinforces the consensus among experts about the genocidal campaign in Gaza," said Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch. "It makes it clear that states can no longer say they did not know."

Legal obligations

Under the 1948 Genocide Convention, all states have a legal obligation to prevent and punish genocide.

The primary obligation applies to states that have ratified the convention. However, the duty to prevent genocide under customary international law binds all states, including those that are not formal signatories.

The findings of the UN commission "underscore these legal duties", Mr Shakir told The National. "States are legally obliged to use all of their leverage to prevent genocide in Gaza, including taking concrete measures like suspending arms to Israel, imposing sanctions on Israeli officials responsible for ongoing grave abuses, suspending preferential trade deals, and using all other means within their power to press Israel to end the ongoing mass atrocities in Gaza."

The extent to which nations take action depends on their "political will", said Nancy Okail, president and chief executive of the Centre for International Policy in Washington.

The findings of the report "won't automatically trigger enforcement of any measures", but the detailed evidence means that countries "can no longer plausibly claim ignorance or not knowing", Ms Okail said. "It's evident, it's documented, so now they have an obligation to prevent and punish acts of genocide."

Evidence for action

The commission's report can also be used as evidence in continuing cases against Israel in the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

Last year, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, as well as three Hamas leaders who are now dead, on allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

In January last year, the ICJ ordered Israel to refrain from any acts that could fall under the Genocide Convention and to ensure its troops commit no genocidal acts against Palestinians.

With the UN commission finding evidence of genocide, countries are now under renewed pressure to fulfil their legal obligations to both courts.

"Their duty to act is triggered by the mere risk of genocide, a threshold that was crossed in Gaza more than a year and a half ago," said Mr Shakir.

"The commission's report adds to the mountain of evidence that Israel is clearly violating the Genocide Convention, and whether or not states agree is irrelevant to their duties to take urgent action."

Both courts have been challenged by Israel and its staunch ally, the US.

Pressure on US

The US has imposed sanctions on ICC officials in response to the arrest warrants, and has dismissed South Africa's case against Israel in the ICJ as "unfounded".

But amid a build-up of extensive evidence, the report increases pressure on the US, Ms Okail said.

The country is a signatory to the Geneva Convention and the Genocide Convention, and under its Proxmire Act, genocide is a federal crime that is punishable even outside US territories.

"This is significant, particularly given the sizeable material support that the United States provides to Israel in terms of arms, security assistance and political support," Ms Okail told The National.

Between October 2023 and October 2024, the US spent a record $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel, the most military aid sent in a year, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project.

Mr Shakir says the US is "complicit in Israel's war crimes", both under President Donald Trump and former president Joe Biden's administrations.

"There's a mountain of evidence that US arms are being used to commit war crimes," he told The National. The commission's report adds to the evidence, but "the factual reality on the ground for Gazans heightens the obligations of the US to end its complicity and stop providing arms", he said.

The findings

In its report, the commission urged Israel and all states to "fulfil their legal obligations under international law to end the genocide and punish those responsible for it".

Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, UN investigators say

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The commission investigated the events on and since October 7, 2023, and concluded that Israeli authorities and Israeli security forces committed four of the five genocidal acts defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

They were: killing members of a group; causing them serious physical or mental harm; intentionally subjecting them to living conditions intended to cause physical destruction; and imposing measures aimed at preventing the birth of children.

"Explicit statements by Israeli civilian and military authorities and the pattern of conduct of the Israeli security forces indicate that the genocidal acts were committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as a group," its report said.

The findings reaffirm what human rights groups, genocide scholars and Palestinians have been saying since October 2023.

In Gaza, Israel has "killed an unprecedented number of Palestinians, imposed a total siege on the strip, blocked humanitarian aid leading to starvation, systematically destroyed the healthcare and education systems, committed systematic acts of sexual and gender-based violence, and directly targeted children" among other violations, according to the report.