Hamas presence in Turkey under spotlight after Israeli air strike on Doha

Turkey has not ruled out the possibility of the Israeli army attacking Hamas-linked targets in the country, but the likelihood of an open attack similar to the strikes on Doha is low, officials and analysts told The National.

Since Israel struck Qatar's capital on Tuesday, killing six people, conservative politicians in Ankara have suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will next set its sights on Turkey, where Hamas officials frequently meet.

“No one can say that Turkey won't be the next target,” former Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu wrote on X.

Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organisation and senior members often visit the country. Shortly after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the movement as a “liberation group” of “mujahideen” that was “waging a battle to protect its lands and people”.

Turkish politicians are aware of the risk of Israel striking Hamas targets in the country. They frequently discuss the issue, an adviser to the parliament’s foreign and national defence committees told The National.

“Of course, those in parliament are dealing with this issue. Threat (both overt and covert) intelligence, air defence measures, Nato alliance management, diplomatic options and so on are constantly on the agenda,” the adviser said.

While the diplomatic and military cost of an open attack on Turkey, a Nato member and close US ally, would be too high, less high-profile attacks on Hamas targets are still possible, the adviser said.

“I believe the rational view is this: the likelihood of an open attack is very low, but covert operations targeting specific Hamas members aren’t entirely ruled out,” the adviser said. “Everyone agrees Israel has such capabilities, but Turkey’s counter-espionage capacity makes it challenging.”

Egypt, Qatar and Turkey have in recent days discussed ways to best protect Hamas's exiled leaders from possible attacks by Israel, sources told The National on Wednesday. Hamas is understood to know the risk of Israeli attacks on its members in Turkey, in part because it believes that Israel has no qualms about striking anywhere.

Aiming to calm tension, countries in the region are attempting to minimise the possibility of further Israeli attacks elsewhere, observers believe. Egyptian and Turkish officials told Hamas to tighten security around their meetings in the region before the strikes on Doha, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The war in Gaza has done enough damage to the region and made the future more unpredictable, Mehmet Ozkan, a professor of international relations at Turkey’s National Defence University, told The National. “Thus Turkey’s support, or possible warning, to Hamas leaders is indicative of not wanting to have further complicated political crisis in [the] Palestinian issue and beyond.”

Israeli officials have long taken offence at Turkey’s hosting of Hamas officials, and once burgeoning relations between the two countries have nosedived since the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza. Turkey halted trade with Israel in May last year and suspended direct flights with the country over the conflict, although it stopped short of severing diplomatic ties.

Following the attack on Doha, a former head of speechwriting at Israel’s mission to the UN posted a picture on X of running rats, with the caption: “Hamas leaders in Turkey be like”. Meir Masri, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, published a picture of Mr Erdogan with former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, with the caption “Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey. Israel fights terrorism.”

Israeli army chief Lt Gen Eyal Zamir said the country would continue its mission “everywhere, at every range, near and far, in order to hold our enemies accountable”, according to a military statement released after the attack.

Turkish observers and politicians have framed the threat of Israeli attacks as being due to both the presence of Hamas in the country and the country’s overall pro-Palestinian stance. They view recent Israeli strikes on its neighbours Syria and Iran, and in other countries across the region, with growing suspicion and are calling for firmer action from Mr Erdogan’s government against what they see as a growing national security threat.

“Zionist Israel says Qatar today, Ankara tomorrow! What more do we expect? Remember, Israel only understands power!” Fatih Erbakan, the leader of the Islamist New Welfare Party, said in a social media post.

The conservative politicians raising the spectre of Israeli attacks on Turkish soil hail from relatively small Islamist parties and are not as powerful as Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). But their fears speak to a large part of Turkish society that increasingly sees Israel as a threat and feels the ruling party has not gone far enough in steps against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The New Welfare Party gained seats in local elections last year in part because voters felt disappointed with what they saw as the AKP’s lack of action over Palestine.

Following the Israeli strikes on Doha, Mr Erdogan held a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, and discussed “joint steps to be taken” against Israel, a Turkish presidency statement said.

Despite the rhetoric on both sides, several factors may prevent Israel from directly attacking Hamas in Turkey, at least overtly.

“Yes, one can see some kind of provocative comments from Israel on social media on this issue,” Mr Ozkan said. “I don't see a possible Turkish-Israeli conflict as reasonable, and it's totally unrealistic given the regional and global circumstances.”

US President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled about the whole situation” after Israel's strikes on Doha. Mr Trump has a good relationship with Mr Erdogan and would likely oppose strikes on Turkey.

The US President has sought the Turkish President's help in both advancing US policy in post-Assad Syria, where Ankara’s influence has soared, and in diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Israel and Turkey have already held diplomatic talks to establish deconfliction mechanisms in Syria, where both operate militarily. An overt attack on Turkish soil could risk leading to a spiral of violence on another front.

Turkey has the second-largest army in Nato. As part of the alliance’s covenants, member countries are obliged to protect any other member state that comes under attack, with armed forces if necessary.

If an attack on Turkey were to happen, “we will have very different implications, as a Nato member would be under attack”, Mr Ozkan said. “Such an attack will not be merely [a] Turkish-Israeli issue. It will be something more than that, bringing in the West, US and even wider Islamic world. My understanding is that Israel will not dare to do such a thing towards Turkey.”