What could have begun as a move to strong-arm Hamas could end with the mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza as Israel moves ahead to occupy Gaza city, former Israeli intelligence, security and political officials have told The National.
“It could be a tactic of pressuring Hamas, but it could also be the real Netanyahu-Ben Gvir-Smotrich plan of emptying Gaza and settling Israelis in their place,” said former hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin.
Israel on Wednesday intensified attacks on Gaza city, where at least 1 million – or half of Gaza's population, live. The army began by issuing “evacuation orders”, forcibly removing people from their homes and makeshift tents in the enclave, where at least nine out of 10 people have already been displaced.
The Israeli cabinet had approved plans to take over Gaza city, effectively reoccupying all of Gaza 20 years after it had pulled out and dismantled settlements.
At the same time, Israel gave final approval to a project to expand settlements in the occupied West Bank, billed as dashing hopes of Palestinian statehood. The project is also seen as a pressure tactic against western countries moving towards recognising Palestine.
A planning committee signed off on Wednesday on the construction of 3,400 homes in a wedge of land east of Jerusalem known as E1. This will effectively bisect the West Bank by connecting the area to the large nearby settlement of Ma’ale Adumim.
Pressure cooker
Regardless of whether the Gaza city plan started with the intention to frighten Hamas, the results are real and will bring about Palestinians' removal from the strip by moving them to the south-west of Gaza, he said.
The area in the south is already so overcrowded that 40,000 people live in every square kilometre, according to UN figures.
“Israel wants to … create a pressure cooker there and wait for it to explode; and for people to cross the border to Sinai and do the ethnic cleansing of Gaza,” Mr Baskin added.
Israel's advancement towards Gaza city, and the intensification of attacks and killings, comes while a US-brokered deal mediated by Egypt and Qatar is pending Israeli approval after it was greenlit by Hamas.
The group had made concessions on the initial version of the agreement, including relinquishing a demand for written US guarantees that the deal would lead to a permanent ceasefire and Hamas's approval for the posting of a force in Gaza under UN supervision to maintain security.
Collateral damage
Hamas had basically agreed to a version of the deal very similar to one that Israel had already approved. Yet, delays in Israel's response remain.
“Benjamin Netanyahu is not interested in a deal … because he is fully committed to an overarching strategy of annihilation of the two-state solution, first in Gaza then the West Bank,” Eran Etzion, former head of Israel's National Security Council at the Prime Minister's office, told The National.
Mr Etzion believes the Israeli Prime Minister is guided by his personal and political gains through the continuing aggression on Gaza, with no regard paid to the Palestinian death toll, which has passed 62,000, nor the fate of the remaining hostages in Hamas's grip.
“His real view of the hostages is as 'collateral damage', and he sees their political release as a political threat,” Mr Etzion added.
With Mr Netanyahu resistant to rising internal pressure, from the streets, to the hostage families and members of government, the only means to stop him from moving forward will not come from within Israel, the former head of Israel's Security Agency, Ami Ayalon, said.
“The idea to conquer Gaza came as a means of pressure, but now, without external intervention, it seems to me it's becoming a horrible reality. America can stop it, and they have the power to do it.”
