Houthis emerge as threat global powers can no longer dismiss

A string of deadly attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial shipping has once again propelled the group onto the world stage, highlighting its evolution from a local insurgency into a regional force capable of challenging global trade and defying military pressure from major powers.

Last week, the Houthis struck two Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged cargo vessels, the MV Magic Seas and MV Eternity C, in the Red Sea, sinking both and causing the deaths of several seafarers. The incident also saw crew members taken hostage.

Private security companies Ambrey and Diaplous Group co-ordinated search efforts for the missing crew of Eternity C, which included a three-man security team. The ship was attacked on July 7 in an assault involving bomb-laden drones before it eventually sank. The attack came a day after the Magic Seas was struck.

The escalation happened at a particularly sensitive moment in the Middle East: talks over a possible Israel-Hamas ceasefire remain fragile, while Iran – the Houthis’ primary backer – is considering whether to re-engage in nuclear negotiations after enduring US air strikes on key nuclear sites during its 12-day war with Israel in June.

The Houthis’ return to the sea war has reignited international alarm and left experts warning that the rebels are now too embedded and too adaptable to be ignored.

Despite a months-long US air campaign dubbed Operation Rough Rider, and a series of strategic setbacks for Iran – including Israeli strikes on its nuclear and proxy infrastructure – the Houthis have survived and even expanded their disruptive reach.

Many in the group now view the May 6 ceasefire agreement with the US as a vindication of their steadfastness, observers argue. The Trump administration launched the air campaign in response to the group’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, and on close ally Israel.

“The degrading of Hezbollah and the 12-day Israel-Iran war have slightly worked to the benefit of the Houthis. Iran is seeing value in the Houthis as the only group within the ‘Axis of Resistance’ that has managed to remain intact. The relationship is not costly on Iran, yet it yields huge benefits,” said Baraa Shiban, a Yemen expert and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based defence and security think tank.

Mr Shiban noted that Tehran supplies the Houthis with weapons, technology and limited financial backing, and receives valuable leverage in return. “Iran played an important role in the ceasefire with the US and managed to pressure the Houthis to halt attacks against US ships. This means they can influence the group to resume attacks as needed,” he added.

‘Operational independence’

The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, have ruled large parts of northern Yemen since 2015 and now exert control over territory home to about 25 million people. While the group receives military and political support from Iran, analysts say it functions autonomously – crafting its own strategies, building local institutions and cultivating external relationships that extend beyond Tehran.

“The Houthis possess a notable degree of resilience and operational independence from Iran. Unlike Hezbollah, which is heavily dependent on Iranian financial and material support, the Houthis have managed to cover a significant portion of their financial needs independently,” Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute in Florida, told The National.

“Their domestic revenue streams include smuggling, religious taxation and administrative income from the areas they control in Yemen.”

Mr Mahmoudian also noted the group’s technological self-sufficiency, cohesive internal structure and capacity to resist intelligence infiltration. “While not a tribal entity per se, their organisational behaviour mirrors traditional tribal dynamics. Intelligence penetration is extremely difficult, and loyalty levels are high – a legacy of their survivalist history.”

The Houthis’ disruptive capability has been most visible at sea. Since November 2023, they have launched more than 100 attacks on international shipping in what the group’s leadership has described as an effort to end Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza. Their strikes have forced global carriers to reroute around Africa, adding weeks to shipping times and driving up costs.

In one of their earliest escalations, the Houthis hijacked the Galaxy Leader, a ship with partial Israeli ownership, in November 2023 and have held its crew hostage for more than a year. Their first fatal strike on a commercial vessel came in March last year, killing three crew members aboard a bulk carrier in the Gulf of Aden.

This month, the attacks turned deadly again. Israel responded by striking key Houthi ports, a power station and the Galaxy Leader, which the Houthis had been using to track other ships.

The two attacks and a round of Israeli air strikes targeting the rebels raised fears of a renewed Houthi campaign against shipping that could again draw in US and western forces.

Although the group has not publicly targeted a US vessel since the May 6 ceasefire, it has continued to launch intermittent missile attacks on Israel. The US-Houthi agreement did not address the rebels’ attacks on Israel. The Houthis maintain that they are striking vessels they believe breach a self-imposed blockade on Israeli ports.

Vigilance on rebels

The UN Security Council authorised on Tuesday continued reporting on attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Houthis, who have defied its previous demands to immediately halt all such attacks.

The vote in the 15-member council was 12-0 with Russia, China and Algeria abstaining because of attacks against Yemen in breach of its sovereignty, a clear reference to US air strikes against the Houthis.

Observers argue that both Russia and China have contributed, either directly or indirectly, to the Houthis’ operational sustainability and international positioning. Russia, in particular, is seen as benefiting from disruptions to western interests and trade through the Red Sea.

“In 2024, Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, reportedly provided the Houthis with targeting data for attacks on US ships,” said Mr Mahmoudian. “Also, some Yemeni fighters, with Houthi approval, joined Russian military efforts in Ukraine, particularly within Russia’s private military companies. This arrangement has offered revenue and strategic depth to the Houthis.”

On the Chinese front, he added, the US sanctioned the Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company for providing satellite imagery that aided Houthi strikes.

The resolution, co-sponsored by the US and Greece, extends the requirement that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres provide monthly reports to the Security Council about Houthi attacks in the Red Sea until January 15, 2026.

On Wednesday, the US Central Command said that Yemeni partners had intercepted a shipment of Iranian weapons bound for the Houthis.

In a statement, US Central Command, which oversees US military interests in the Middle East, congratulated the Yemeni National Resistance Forces for what it called “the largest seizure of Iranian advanced conventional weapons in their history”.

Yet analysts say international actors continue to underestimate the long-term threat posed by the Houthis.

“The Houthis will continue to build their capacity and capabilities to continue harming Western interests. They believe that they are more valuable when they can leverage and harm US interests in the region,” said Mr Shiban.

“They now feel emboldened by the lack of action from the international community. They also don’t fear losing territory. If the Houthis don’t feel pressure and a real threat from losing control of terrain, they will continue threatening international shipping lanes.”