Iran will not be able to make a nuclear bomb “for years”, even if it has managed to protect its enriched uranium from air strikes, analysts have told The National.
They have concluded that the damage inflicted by US bombers to the Fordow plant, where centrifuges could enrich uranium to a high enough purity for a bomb, will have severely damaged its capabilities.
However, following reports that Iran has managed to remove 400kg of its 60 per cent enriched uranium out of Fordow, there is a belief that it would allow Tehran to continue its nuclear programme once the bombing stops.
The stakes in what happens next to the residual programme could not be higher. Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that “strikes cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has acquired over several decades, nor any regime ambition to deploy that knowledge to build a nuclear weapon”.
In a statement to Parliament he added that “once you have the ability to enrich uranium to 60 per cent that knowledge is not lost, it is the step to an advanced weapon”.
He also called for Tehran to “dial this thing down and negotiate” as the alternative was “even more destructive and far-reaching conflict, which could have unpredictable consequences”.
Years out
Steps to weaponising uranium will have become harder for Iran. Without getting the uranium to 95 per cent enrichment it is impossible to create a chain reaction and a nuclear explosion, said nuclear weapons specialist Hamish de Bretton Gordon.
“Turning that enriched uranium into weaponised uranium at 95 per cent would require a facility with centrifuges and all the other paraphernalia,” he said.
“These are very complex pieces of equipment and you need the knowledge to make them work. My assessment is that Iran doesn't have the capacity to make a nuclear device and is unlikely to do so for some considerable time, for years.”
IAEA nuclear inspectors have suggested that Iran would “adopt special measures” to protect its programme in the event of war and that the regime had already notified them of a new enrichment site which they were due to inspect before the Israeli attack began.
But Rafael Grossi, IAEA director general, also suggested that the American bombing had now devastated the programme. “Given the explosive payload utilised, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred,” he said.
Assassination effects
Intelligence reports suggest that Iran was close to enriching uranium to 95 per cent within three days using the Fordow centrifuges, but with these now destroyed that will be difficult to achieve.
Israeli intelligence is reported to know that Iran has some highly enriched uranium hidden, probably at Isfahan, which was one reason for their bombing campaign.
Iran will also need to rebuild facilities and, while this could take months, many of the parts will have to be imported with, intelligence agencies on high alert.
Iran has suffered the killings of up to 17 nuclear scientists along with destruction of research papers and laboratories. While it will have some corporate knowledge left over, this will be difficult to rebuild.
Labs gone
The main problem for Iran is that it needs to turn enriched uranium hexafluoride back into solid metal which requires the laboratories and factories that have now been destroyed.
Israeli and US intelligence service appear to have infiltrated the regime, making it possible that Iran’s adversaries will know or can find out where the uranium has gone.
Mr de Bretton Gordon, a former British Army colonel, admitted that “you can hide uranium fairly easily as it doesn't emit really strong, powerful radiation” and if it was bombed it would cause very little radiation fallout.
But Marion Messmer, nuclear expert at Chatham House think tank, said that Fordow and other enrichment sites attacked are unlikely to be all the Iranian programme.
She claimed that the attacks would “embolden Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weapons as they will likely be seen now as the only security guarantee”.
Darya Dolzikova, a nuclear specialist at the British Royal United Services Institute think tank, added that the physical elimination of the programme’s infrastructure and assassinations “will not be sufficient to destroy the latent knowledge that exists in the country”.
Dirty bombs
At best Iran could rapidly produce an “improvised nuclear device” using the 60 per cent enriched uranium but this would amount to no more than a dirty bomb that would simply spread radiation around an area without particularly deadly effect.
Dr Messner said that while a dirty bomb only required a conventional payload and some radioactive material, this would go against Iran’s goal of a nuclear arsenal. “Using some of its limited stockpile for a dirty bomb would be a waste,” she said. “And the consequences of using a dirty bomb against Israel would also likely be very severe. A dirty bomb is not a deterrence capability.”
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
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Company%20Profile
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Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
Match info
Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20profile
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RIVER%20SPIRIT
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UAE v Ireland
1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets
2nd ODI, January 12
3rd ODI, January 14
4th ODI, January 16
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
