Egypt faces prospect of Iran defeat further empowering Israel in region

Egypt has been sharply critical of Israel over its war on Iran, a stand rooted in part in Cairo’s concern that a defeated, or significantly weakened, Tehran would allow its one-time foe to project its power more emphatically across the Middle East.

Now that the US has joined Israel in the war, calls for Egypt – once the region's political and cultural engine – to prepare for the prospect of a dominant Israel have taken on added significance.

The challenge has already stirred a national conversation on what needs to be done.

“It’s not just Iran. The fate of the entire region is now on the line," political analyst and author Abdalla Senawy warned.

"We are at a historic juncture. If Iran is defeated … Egypt’s turn will eventually follow. This is the time of reckoning for Egypt before anyone else. Either it rises and makes its own fate or enters and stays in darkness for many decades to come."

Egypt's position on Iran has mostly been shaped by Cairo's opposition to Israel's war in Gaza, as well as US President Donald Trump’s support for Israel. Cairo has also rejected Washington's proposal to resettle Gazans in Egypt.

In contrast, Egypt's ties with Iran have been improving rapidly, with the two nation forging closer relations, including on energy and military co-operation.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has not spoken publicly about the Iran-Israel conflict since it began on June 13. But he has strongly condemned Israel for initiating the conflict in calls and meetings with world leaders and foreign diplomats, according to official statements.

The latest of those talks took place on Saturday night, when Mr El Sisi spoke by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, just hours before the US struck three key nuclear sites in Iran. Mr El Sisi condemned Israel’s escalation with Iran and warned that the war posed a threat to regional security and stability.

Deeper concerns

On Sunday, Egypt said it was “deeply worried about the latest developments” in Iran, without mentioning the US or its attacks. But concerns in Egypt about the consequences of the war are much greater than public statements suggest.

Cairo fears the US and Israel will next turn their attention to carrying out Mr Trump’s proposal to force Palestinians to leave Gaza and resettle elsewhere, including in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

Egypt has repeatedly warned that this would undermine its national security, damage the Palestinian cause and weaken the argument for two-state solution.

Pro-government media figures, including popular talk show hosts, have criticised Israel and assured Egyptians that Mr El Sisi and the country's military are there to stymie Israel's efforts to change the region's political landscape.

Separately, the Grand Imam of Cairo's Al Azhar Mosque, Dr Ahmed Al Tayeb, has supported Iran against Israel, condemning Israel's attacks in a Farsi-language Facebook post. As the head of the world’s foremost seat of Sunni Islam learning, his words carry significant weight given that Iran is predominantly Shiite.

Egypt and Israel signed a US-sponsored peace treaty in 1979 that is widely viewed as a cornerstone of regional stability. But Egypt’s military doctrine continues to present Israel as the nation’s chief adversary.

Egyptian military drills are largely focused on the Sinai Peninsula being the most probable theatre of future hostilities, just as the mainly desert territory was in the wars with Israel in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973.

Egypt currently faces chronic economic woes, while losing much of its allure as a regional cultural and arts centre. Paradoxically, Egypt has the region's largest army, equipped with cutting-edge weapons procured from the US, Russia, western Europe and China.

“Egypt needs smart partnerships with rational regional powers … that will create a ‘crescent of stability’ based on interests not ideology,” US-based political scientist and commentator Mamoun Fandy wrote in an open letter to Mr El Sisi.

“We don’t need a military confrontation to prove our presence but rather economic and political engineering that convinces the region and the world that Egypt remains the ultimate cornerstone of the Middle East. Mr President, history is not written through neutrality but is made with courageous and conscious positions.”

Amr Hashem Radia, another Egyptian commentator, has made similar points about Egypt’s foreign policy. He urged authorities to “open up the public space" and enable more freedom of expression. That will help the government should it need to make “unilateral decisions” to deal with the effects of the Israel-Iran conflict, he said.