Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s recent threat to “turn Tehran into Beirut” with attacks on civilian areas will be difficult to execute without direct US involvement, Iranian analysts and citizens told The National.
They pointed to Tehran’s vast size and distance from Israel, as well as Iran’s military strength and defensive capabilities, as major obstacles.
The "Dahieh Doctrine" – named after Israel’s 2006 destruction of the Beirut residential suburb, which is Hezbollah’s seat of power – relies on using overwhelming force against enemy infrastructure in civilian areas. It aims to cause destruction and sow discord, ultimately causing the civilian population to turn against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza. But analysts said such a doctrine cannot be easily applied to Iran.
The Israelis "are trying to replicate their strategy in Lebanon,” said Seyed Emamian, an assistant professor at Tehran Polytechnic University, referring to Israel’s sudden and deadly air and ground campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024. “But Iran is quite different in terms of size, military, geography, and distance from Israel.”
In Lebanon, Israel's military campaign began with a shock-and-awe air offensive and a targeted decapitation strategy against Hezbollah’s leadership. Israeli air superiority – made possible by Lebanon’s lack of air defence systems or a functioning air force – allowed near-total freedom of operation. The offensive also followed an unprecedented Mossad spy operation that crippled much of Hezbollah’s fighting force.
Israel was also successful in assassinating long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Then it assassinated his replacement, “and his replacement’s replacement,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in October of last year. They also took out the vast majority of Hezbollah’s remaining command structure.
Unlike Hezbollah, Iran’s armed forces – particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – possesses an extensive air defence network and a layered military hierarchy that cannot be neutralised with decapitation strikes alone, according to Mr Emamian.
“They wanted to dismantle the army’s leadership chain. But there are huge numbers of leadership in the Iranian army,” said Mr Emamian, who is also the co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran. “The IRGC is not comparable to Hezbollah in terms of command structure.”
The scale and capabilities of the Iranian military, combined with its geographic depth, make any attempt to replicate Israel’s Lebanon strategy in Tehran far more complex – a campaign that may ultimately rely on drawing the US into direct military intervention.
Civilian mood
Meanwhile, in Tehran – a sprawling metropolis of more than 10 million – thousands have fled amid repeated Israeli calls to evacuate, but few see these warnings as realistic.
“Honestly most people are behaving as Iranians normally behave during the holidays,” Mr Emamian said of the traffic jams and the mass exodus. He himself has left the city for the countryside, like many others. “Tehran is less crowded now. But there’s no public panic because Tehran is huge. There are some people who don’t hear or see the strikes.”
For nearly two years, Iranian citizens watched as Israel wrought devastation in Gaza and Lebanon and their government, which backs numerous regional proxies, attempted to avoid war on its own doorstep.
“But of course we didn’t imagine there would be a war and that they would strike Iran in this way,” said Ahmad Jahandar, 43, who lives in the city of Rasht, near the Caspian Sea.
Still he, too, was doubtful of Israel’s threats to “burn Tehran”. “Greater Tehran has 15 million people in it,” he said dismissively in response to the Israeli threats.
“Dozens of women and children have been killed. We’re being attacked even night and day,” he said. He referred to US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate the capital and said "I don't think psychological warfare is useful in such cases".
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
More on animal trafficking
More on animal trafficking
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How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 2 (Mahrez 04', Ake 84')
Leicester City 5 (Vardy 37' pen, 54', 58' pen, Maddison 77', Tielemans 88' pen)
Man of the match: Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
Our legal advisor
Rasmi Ragy is a senior counsel at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Prosecutor in Egypt with more than 40 years experience across the GCC.
Education: Ain Shams University, Egypt, in 1978.
if you go
The flights
Direct flights from the UAE to the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, are available with Air Arabia, (www.airarabia.com) Fly Dubai (www.flydubai.com) or Etihad (www.etihad.com) from Dh1,200 return including taxes. The trek described here started from Jomson, but there are many other start and end point variations depending on how you tailor your trek. To get to Jomson from Kathmandu you must first fly to the lake-side resort town of Pokhara with either Buddha Air (www.buddhaair.com) or Yeti Airlines (www.yetiairlines.com). Both charge around US$240 (Dh880) return. From Pokhara there are early morning flights to Jomson with Yeti Airlines or Simrik Airlines (www.simrikairlines.com) for around US$220 (Dh800) return.
The trek
Restricted area permits (US$500 per person) are required for trekking in the Upper Mustang area. The challenging Meso Kanto pass between Tilcho Lake and Jomson should not be attempted by those without a lot of mountain experience and a good support team. An excellent trekking company with good knowledge of Upper Mustang, the Annaurpuna Circuit and Tilcho Lake area and who can help organise a version of the trek described here is the Nepal-UK run Snow Cat Travel (www.snowcattravel.com). Prices vary widely depending on accommodation types and the level of assistance required.
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
