Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s recent threat to “turn Tehran into Beirut” with attacks on civilian areas will be difficult to execute without direct US involvement, Iranian analysts and citizens told The National.
They pointed to Tehran’s vast size and distance from Israel, as well as Iran’s military strength and defensive capabilities, as major obstacles.
The "Dahieh Doctrine" – named after Israel’s 2006 destruction of the Beirut residential suburb, which is Hezbollah’s seat of power – relies on using overwhelming force against enemy infrastructure in civilian areas. It aims to cause destruction and sow discord, ultimately causing the civilian population to turn against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza. But analysts said such a doctrine cannot be easily applied to Iran.
The Israelis "are trying to replicate their strategy in Lebanon,” said Seyed Emamian, an assistant professor at Tehran Polytechnic University, referring to Israel’s sudden and deadly air and ground campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024. “But Iran is quite different in terms of size, military, geography, and distance from Israel.”
In Lebanon, Israel's military campaign began with a shock-and-awe air offensive and a targeted decapitation strategy against Hezbollah’s leadership. Israeli air superiority – made possible by Lebanon’s lack of air defence systems or a functioning air force – allowed near-total freedom of operation. The offensive also followed an unprecedented Mossad spy operation that crippled much of Hezbollah’s fighting force.
Israel was also successful in assassinating long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Then it assassinated his replacement, “and his replacement’s replacement,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in October of last year. They also took out the vast majority of Hezbollah’s remaining command structure.
Unlike Hezbollah, Iran’s armed forces – particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – possesses an extensive air defence network and a layered military hierarchy that cannot be neutralised with decapitation strikes alone, according to Mr Emamian.
“They wanted to dismantle the army’s leadership chain. But there are huge numbers of leadership in the Iranian army,” said Mr Emamian, who is also the co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran. “The IRGC is not comparable to Hezbollah in terms of command structure.”
The scale and capabilities of the Iranian military, combined with its geographic depth, make any attempt to replicate Israel’s Lebanon strategy in Tehran far more complex – a campaign that may ultimately rely on drawing the US into direct military intervention.
Civilian mood
Meanwhile, in Tehran – a sprawling metropolis of more than 10 million – thousands have fled amid repeated Israeli calls to evacuate, but few see these warnings as realistic.
“Honestly most people are behaving as Iranians normally behave during the holidays,” Mr Emamian said of the traffic jams and the mass exodus. He himself has left the city for the countryside, like many others. “Tehran is less crowded now. But there’s no public panic because Tehran is huge. There are some people who don’t hear or see the strikes.”
For nearly two years, Iranian citizens watched as Israel wrought devastation in Gaza and Lebanon and their government, which backs numerous regional proxies, attempted to avoid war on its own doorstep.
“But of course we didn’t imagine there would be a war and that they would strike Iran in this way,” said Ahmad Jahandar, 43, who lives in the city of Rasht, near the Caspian Sea.
Still he, too, was doubtful of Israel’s threats to “burn Tehran”. “Greater Tehran has 15 million people in it,” he said dismissively in response to the Israeli threats.
“Dozens of women and children have been killed. We’re being attacked even night and day,” he said. He referred to US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate the capital and said "I don't think psychological warfare is useful in such cases".
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Abu Dhabi race card
5pm Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
5.30pm Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
6pm Abu Dhabi Championship Listed | Dh180,000 | 1,600m
6.30pm Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,400m
7.30pm Handicap (TB) |Dh100,000 | 2,400m
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
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2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
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Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time
Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.
Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.
The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.
The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.
Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.
The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.
• Bloomberg
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
RESULT
Los Angeles Galaxy 2 Manchester United 5
Galaxy: Dos Santos (79', 88')
United: Rashford (2', 20'), Fellaini (26'), Mkhitaryan (67'), Martial (72')
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
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