An air of uncertainty surrounds US President Donald Trump and potential American involvement in Israel's war against Iran.
Concern is mounting across the region that US strikes on Iran would provoke retaliation and make American bases a target.
While Tehran has long been an adversary of Washington and a source of international concern over its nuclear ambitions, Middle East governments and the broader international community have warned the Americans that getting involved in this war could have catastrophic consequences. Iran itself has warned of unleashing “hell” in the region if the US intervenes.
As Mr Trump considers whether or not to directly involve US forces, one of Iran’s largest support networks remains deeply embedded in Iraq. Powerful militant groups, tied to Tehran through years of military and strategic co-operation, are watching developments closely and escalating their threats of military action to back their ally.
It is a big risk and Iraq would pay a heavy price, which it cannot afford. It just started rebuilding its security and stabilising the country
Iraqi government source
Sources close to the Iraqi government said some of the most prominent militant groups have made it known this week that any US military intervention would trigger a response.
“They told the government that they would go in and that they disagree with the decision to stand by,” one source said.
Baghdad decided at the start of this war not to be part of it. The government wants to avoid turning the country into a battlefield for a regional conflict.
One source said that the Iraqi government has already “warned the militias against any involvement,” fearing further escalation.
“It is a big risk and Iraq would pay a heavy price, which it cannot afford,” the source added. “It has just started rebuilding its security and is stabilising as a country.”
Iraqi militant factions operate on their own terms, but military action to support Iran would not be straightforward and could result in severe consequences, the government sources added.
“The US know where those factions are based and can easily eliminate them if they chose to,” one source said. “They can target them one by one.”
Hassan Janabi, a former Iraqi ambassador and minister, told The National: “It is clear that armed factions will see US involvement as an opportunity to carry out attacks on US sites, including the embassy in Baghdad.”
Although direct American involvement would not be a surprise, it would “increase the anger of the Iraqi public, which is hostile to Israel and America, as well as the Iran-aligned armed factions that are ideologically and strategically tied to Tehran,” Mr Janabi added.
He added that the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani is attempting to portray “solidarity with Iran by condemning the Israeli aggression, because it is ultimately unable to confront the military escalation taking place”.
The threat of a full regional war is more serious now than at any point in the past two years. If Mr Trump sends warplanes to support Israel, Iraqi militias are unlikely to be passive.
While the threat isn’t entirely new and the scale and potential impact of this type of involvement is uncertain, these Iraqi factions, known as Fasael, have been adopting a more serious tone as the conflict intensifies and enters a second week.
Powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr said on Friday that an attack could take place at any time and against any country, depending on the decision “entrusted” to Mr Trump.
“This means that the unjust decision will, by divine wisdom and divine power, bring calamity and loss upon the man who issued this decision," he added. "It will bring calamity and loss upon him, as has already happened.”
On Thursday, the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq vowed to attack US military bases across the Middle East if the US enters the war.
“We affirm, with greater clarity, that if the United States enters this war, the ‘crazy’ Trump will lose all the trillions he dreams of seizing from this region,” militia leader Abu Ali Al Askari said in a statement. He added that operational plans had already been drawn up.
Another Tehran-backed armed faction in Iraq, the True Promise Corps, has also threatened to join the war. The group, part of a shadowy coalition known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, issued a warning Monday that it would strike Israeli targets and its regional allies.
“We declare that all the sites and camps of the entity [Israel] and anyone who supports it in the region are targets for us,” the group’s leader, Mohammed Al Tamimi, said in a statement posted on X.
The escalating threats come after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Mr Trump will make a decision “within the next two weeks”, suggesting that much would depend on the outcome of more potential talks with Iran.
“In light of the substantial chance that negotiations with Iran may or may not take place in the near future, the President will make his decision within the next two weeks,” she said.
Just 24 hours earlier, Mr Trump said he had not made up his mind. “I may do it,” he told reporters. “I may not do it.”
One source suggested to The National that Washington is “reluctant to get directly involved,” pointing out that “Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to de-escalate conflicts in the region and end foreign entanglements.”
It remains to be seen whether or not the Trump administration will stand by and watch Iranian missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv, especially after talking about “hitting hard”, repeat warnings about Iran’s nuclear threat and five failed rounds of negotiations.
'Survival mode'
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London's Chatham House, believes Iraq's armed factions are in “survival mode”.
“The situation has gone beyond their control,” he said. “They don't know where it's going or where it will end, and it's about surviving effectively.”
Baghdad does not want to create instability following years of calm. However, “what's happening now is risking the equilibrium that Iraq has enjoyed", Mr Mansour added.
“So for this reason, armed groups – certainly senior PMF groups – have tried to rhetorically signal their support for Iran and condemn Israel.”
Iraq’s powerful militias played an active role early in the Israel-Gaza war, launching attacks on US bases and claiming that they fired rockets towards Tel Aviv.
But that momentum shifted following a quiet, unannounced truce that led Iran-backed factions to halt attacks on US forces. The truce, involving Washington, Baghdad and Tehran, was reached in February 2024.
Mina Aldroubi contributed to this report from Abu Dhabi
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ferrari
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Results
5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Mudaarab, Jim Crowley (jockey), Erwan Charpy (trainer).
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Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Hassan Al Hammadi.
6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m
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6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige Dh100,000 1,600m
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7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
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8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1 Dh5,000,000 1,600m
Winner: Mashhur Al Khalediah, Jean-Bernard Eyquem, Phillip Collington.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The five pillars of Islam
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
THURSDAY'S FIXTURES
4pm Maratha Arabians v Northern Warriors
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Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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