Iran is expected to exhaust its missile supply much sooner than Israel, members of the US Congress told The National on Wednesday, as the Middle East air war entered its sixth day.
A long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran erupted into open conflict last week when Israel launched a large‑scale air and covert strike campaign – including Mossad-backed drone operations – against military and nuclear sites in Iran.
The attacks killed senior commanders in the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and nuclear scientists, and damaged nuclear sites such as Natanz and Isfahan. Israel said its sweeping assault was necessary to prevent Tehran from moving closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon. An Iranian human rights group in Washington said at least 585 people, including 239 civilians, have been killed and more than 1,300 wounded.
Iran has fired some 400 missiles and hundreds of drones in retaliatory strikes that have killed at least 24 people in Israel and wounded hundreds. Some have hit apartment buildings in central Israel, causing heavy damage, and air raid sirens have repeatedly forced Israelis to run for shelter.
“If the current pattern continues, it’s sort of a war of attrition with missiles for Iran and defence systems for Israel,” said Representative Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat.
“The Iranians are eating up their national resources on impotent responses. Their allies are turning away from them. Russia is not nearly as engaged as it's been in the past. They're alienating individuals in the region who should be their partners and their domestic situation gets worse every day that they drag this out.”
“I don't believe they have the capabilities to continue producing them [missiles] as quickly as they’ll need to if they’re going to stay in this conflict,” said Mr Panetta.
His comments came during a conversation with The National in Abu Dhabi alongside fellow congressmen Brad Schneider, a Democrat, and Republican members Don Bacon and Zach Nunn. All have a military or national security background, with Mr Panetta, Mr Nunn and Mr Bacon having served in the armed forces.
“We saw larger salvos earlier. Now there are only smaller ones, which indicates they’re having a hard time getting missiles to the launchers,” said Mr Bacon. “Some speculate they’re also running low, because they’re firing far fewer now.”
Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel was estimated to be around 2,000 before Israel launched Operation Rising Lion last Friday, according to Israeli intelligence. US commander General Kenneth McKenzie said in 2022 that Iran had more than 3,000 missiles capable of various ranges.
The lawmakers stressed continued US support for Israel’s defence and said Iran finds itself today in a "much weaker” position.
Potential US involvement
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that his country “will not surrender”, in response to remarks made by US President Donald Trump. He also warned that any direct American involvement in Israel’s war would lead to “irreparable” consequences for the US.
“The US President threatens us. With his absurd rhetoric, he demands that the Iranian people surrender to him. They should make threats against those who are afraid of being threatened,” he said in a televised speech.
Mr Trump had earlier cautioned Iran that any attacks on US interest in the region would be met with “the full strength and might” of the American military.
“We’ve made it clear: if there are attacks on American assets – especially the 40,000 troops we have in the region – we will respond in any way necessary to defend ourselves and our men and women in uniform,” said Mr Panetta.
Trump limits
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a member of the Senate armed services and foreign relations committees, introduced on Monday a bill that would block Mr Trump from using the American military in a conflict against Iran without explicit authorisation from Congress.
Mr Nunn has reservations about restricting presidential powers. “I don’t want to put handcuffs on the President when he is trying to be in the best possible position to defend US interests,” he said.
“We’re working together with 47 other members on a compendium of maximum pressure sanctions against Iran that the President can leverage immediately with Congress’s backing, not only to push Iran to de-escalate but also to apply pressure where necessary.”
The members of Congress said diplomacy remains a preferred option, emphasising that there is still a window for a nuclear deal.
Since April, the US and Iran have held five rounds of negotiations in Rome and Muscat. The talks aimed to contain Iran’s nuclear advances and prevent a regional confrontation, with both sides signalling cautious optimism. A sixth round was scheduled to take place last Sunday. However, two days earlier, Israel launched what it called “pre-emptive” strikes against Tehran. Mr Trump had given Iran a 60-day deadline to reach a deal or face severe repercussions. Israel’s operation began at dawn on day 61.
Asked about whether the war amounts to an attempt to force regime change in Tehran, the politicians responded, “That’s going to be up to the people of Iran.”
Degraded proxies
Although the Iranians are at their weakest point in decades, their nuclear programme is at its strongest in decades, the congressmen said.
“According to the people we’ve been listening to, they know Khamenei made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon. So the Israelis said, ‘We can’t wait any longer,’” said Mr Schneider.
Last week, the UN nuclear watchdog's 35-nation board of governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. A central issue was Iran's failure to provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with credible explanations of how uranium traces detected at undeclared sites in Iran came to be there despite the agency having investigated the issue for years. Iran insists its programme is for civilian purposes and that it does not seek a nuclear bomb.
Politicians believe that with many of its proxy groups degraded, Iran now sees nuclear weapons as its last reliable deterrent.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have both suffered severe losses in wars with Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have also faced setbacks: US-led strikes have halved their offensive capabilities. The regime of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad – once a critical partner in Iran’s regional axis – was toppled last year.
“Their only deterrent now would be their nukes,” said Mr Panetta.
The House members said that Iran’s proxies are incapable of offering meaningful defence.
“Whether or not they choose to act is going to be at their own risk – with consequences,” added Mr Panetta.
Abraham Accords
Mr Schneider said that the “path to a more secure, prosperous and peaceful Middle East is through the Abraham Accords”, referring to a series of normalisation agreements signed in 2020 between Israel and several Arab countries.
Before the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Saudi Arabia was in advanced talks to join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel, in a deal mediated by the US. However, the war and Israel’s military campaign in Gaza halted the momentum, with Riyadh publicly emphasising the need for a credible path towards a Palestinian state before moving forward.
“We’re not going to have a decision tomorrow on what happens in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank,” said Mr Nunn. “But what we do know is there was great economic opportunity and greater security through peaceful relations. There’s a mutual threat coming from Iran. And every time Iran fires off a weapon, it goes over Iraq, Jordan, Syria and others, posing a mutual risk.”
