Russia warns of 'unpredictable consequences' if Iran-Israel conflict escalates

Russia's ambassador to the UN said on Tuesday he sees no willingness from Israel to engage in mediation efforts to end its conflict with Iran, warning of “unpredictable consequences” as hostilities intensify.

“This thing should be stopped, because it has absolutely unpredictable consequences, given that we're talking about nuclear sites that are under threat and given that the ballistic exchange continues with heavy casualties on both sides,” Vasily Nebenzya told reporters in New York.

The remarks come as retaliatory attacks between Israel and Iran continue, and as international calls grow for de-escalation. It also comes as President Donald Trump has indicated the US could enter the conflict.

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Moscow is seeking to be a mediator, but its overtures have yet to translate into concrete talks.

“There was a conversation between President [Vladimir] Putin and President Trump the other day, and President Putin said that we are ready to do what we can to facilitate … so in that sense, yes, we are co-ordinating, but we don't have any mediation efforts on the ground,” he said.

Iran provided critical drone support to Russia during the first year of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, helped it establish a domestic drone factory, and signed a 20-year strategic partnership in January, deepening defence and political ties between the two allies.

Yet months after that agreement, as Iran faces unprecedented Israeli strikes threatening its stability, Russia has offered little beyond diplomatic statements and phone calls, leaving Tehran increasingly isolated.

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Moscow is walking a tightrope, Lulia-Sabina Joja, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The National, as it weighs support for Tehran against protecting its broader regional interests amid Iran’s declining influence.

Any prolonged instability in the Middle East, especially involving Iran, could undermine Russia’s delicate balancing act in the region, Ms Joja said.

“Russia has to play now a very difficult balancing game,” she said. “On the one hand, they want to support Iran but have to be on the winning side in the Middle East to pursue their interests, and Iran is looking weak, with its interests on the losing side across the region, particularly in Syria with the Assad regime and other elements.”

At the same time, Moscow's immediate priority remains its war in Ukraine, she noted, where it aims to prolong the conflict while stringing along the US with illusory negotiations.

“For them to be able to do that for as long as possible, which is their aim, they have to play nice, or at least pretend to play nice, with the United States,” Ms Joja said. “That's why we're seeing them take a step back or adopt a more reluctant position than some expected in their partnership with Iran.”

If the US joins Israel in striking Iran, Ms Joja said direct Russian intervention is unlikely. “The US and Israel have the upper hand,” she said of their air superiority.

Still, any escalation of the conflict would necessarily make Moscow uncomfortable, as it would jeopardise Russia's goals in Ukraine and its broader Middle East ambitions, including access to warm-water trade routes, she added.