One in 10 Iranian missiles are cutting through Israeli air defences with a pan-Middle East exchange of attacks now becoming a battle of resources, experts have told The National.
Iran is thought to be deploying its hypersonic Fatah-1 missiles, capable of flying at up to 18,600kph while manoeuvring in flight, making them difficult to intercept.
A battle of numbers is also developing, with the amount of relevant missiles Iran has, estimated at about 2,000, compared to the stockpile of Israel’s interceptors that has rapidly been used up in four days of bombardment.
Crucial to the outcome of this long-range war will be which side has the most missiles. If Israel’s world-leading Iron Dome, Arrow and the David’s Sling layered system runs out of interceptors, then its cities and industrial centres will be vulnerable to Iran’s missile fleet.
But if Israel manages to fend off the offensive – it is estimated Tehran has used 280 of its total stockpile – there will be no deterrent from further attacks.
Israel on Monday claimed it had destroyed a third of all Iranian missile launchers and now “controls the skies over Tehran”, although experts say its own missile interceptor stocks are “running low”.
Bleed through
Key to Iran’s successes in penetrating defences has been the Fatah-1 missile that entered service only two years ago. The medium-range missile travels on a fixed trajectory until a few hundred kilometres from its target when its movable nozzle is initiated, increasing speed threefold to up to Mach 15, allowing it to change course frequently.
That tactic is designed to throw off the calculations of Israel’s long-range radars that can track the threats, predicting impact points.
The ability to intercept a fast-moving missile high in the atmosphere is “phenomenally complex”, said Nick Brown, director of equipment intelligence at Janes, the defence intelligence company. These missiles operate in what is called exo-atmospheric flight, or outside Earth's atmosphere.
“The pure physics of making an exo-atmospheric or very high-speed interception within the atmosphere – basically making sure your interceptor is going to be in the right place at the right time – is phenomenally complex,” Mr Brown told The National.
The defenders could likely to fire two or three interceptors for every incoming missile, for which, with each Arrow-3 costing $3 million, there is a finite amount.
While Israel has good protection around its major cities, as well as military sites and key national infrastructure, it cannot protect the entire country, hence why some towns have been hit.
And even with the missile defence, Tel Aviv and the northern industrial city of Haifa have been struck. “If Iran can get enough missiles in the air simultaneously, some of them will likely bleed through,” Mr Brown said.
Reduced stocks
To win the missile war and reduce the negative political impact of a high civilian death toll, Israel will be heavily reliant on its sophisticated layered defensive system.
The key defence against high-speed missiles are the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors – the latter is an exo-atmospheric system – that can take out threats along the arc of a ballistic trajectory.
Dr Sidharth Kaushal, an expert on missile technology at the Rusi think tank, said Israel has achieved a “high success rate of around 90 per cent” and the number of missiles “leaking through the Israeli defensive system is not especially high”.
“No system provides preclusive defence and if a system is saturated with enough missiles, some will get through."
But he warned the interceptors themselves, especially the Arrow-2 local coverage weapons, had unknown stockpiles and “the fact that the US has deployed a destroyer to abet the defence and is apparently considering further deployments would suggest that there is a meaningful risk of Israeli interceptor stockpiles running low”.
Poor accuracy
Most of Iran’s arsenal is based on the Shahab-3, a ballistic missile that once fired follows the same trajectory making it easier to shoot down.
But if the Shahab pierces defences – its accuracy is also quite poor – it carries a devastating 1,200kg warhead that will impact at about 8,600kmh.
Another more effective ballistic missile introduced in 2020 is the Haj Qasem, named after assassinated former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Suleimani, that Iran claims can penetrate advanced air defences and strike targets with precision. It travels at Mach 12 (14,800kph), with a 500kg warhead.
Endurance test
But the Israel air force is pounding Iran’s supplies, especially as it appears to have achieved air superiority over the country, with many missiles and their launchers now being pre-emptively struck. “As such, the outcome of the test of endurance between the two sides is not yet certain,” Dr Kaushal said.
However, without those air strikes it might be possible for Iran to overwhelm the enemy air defence systems, either “by the sheer number of attacks, or by attacking from different directions”, said Dr Marion Messmer, an expert on arms control at Chatham House think tank.
“That’s why we've seen differing success rates in terms of the interception, especially with the hypersonic glide vehicles, when they remain manoeuvrable in flight. But the fact is that Israel has managed to intercept a huge amount of these various attacks.”
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEducatly%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohmmed%20El%20Sonbaty%2C%20Joan%20Manuel%20and%20Abdelrahman%20Ayman%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEducation%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%242%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEnterprise%20Ireland%2C%20Egypt%20venture%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20HBAN%2C%20Falak%20Startups%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Aston Villa 1
Samatta (41')
Manchester City 2
Aguero (20')
Rodri (30')
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
MATCH INFO
Schalke 0
Werder Bremen 1 (Bittencourt 32')
Man of the match Leonardo Bittencourt (Werder Bremen)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Race card
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Meydan Cup – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,810m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,600m
9.50pm: Meydan Classic – Conditions (TB) $$50,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm: Dubai Sprint – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,200m
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PRO%20MAX
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The five pillars of Islam
The years Ramadan fell in May
The years Ramadan fell in May
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
More on animal trafficking
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The bio
Academics: Phd in strategic management in University of Wales
Number one caps: His best-seller caps are in shades of grey, blue, black and yellow
Reading: Is immersed in books on colours to understand more about the usage of different shades
Sport: Started playing polo two years ago. Helps him relax, plus he enjoys the speed and focus
Cars: Loves exotic cars and currently drives a Bentley Bentayga
Holiday: Favourite travel destinations are London and St Tropez
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 2 (Van Dijk 18', 24')
Brighton 1 (Dunk 79')
Red card: Alisson (Liverpool)
Opening Premier League fixtures, August 14
- Brentford v Arsenal
- Burnley v Brighton
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- Everton v Southampton
- Leicester City v Wolves
- Manchester United v Leeds United
- Newcastle United v West Ham United
- Norwich City v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Manchester City
- Watford v Aston Villa
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
