Israel's attack on Iran aimed to derail nuclear talks, Tehran observers say

Israel’s multi-pronged attack on Iran aimed to derail nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, former Iranian government officials and analysts have said.

Israel “tried to sabotage America's diplomatic work with a military attack”, Sasan Karimi, a former deputy vice president for strategic affairs, told The National.

The strikes across Iran, which killed senior military commanders and nuclear scientists, took place only 48 hours before US and Iranian officials were due to meet for a sixth round of talks over limits on Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran has responded by launching drones at Israel.

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Unprecedented

“Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran overnight were designed to kill US President Donald Trump’s chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear programme,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London. “This is the biggest military attack Iran has faced since the war with Iraq in the 1980s and is being viewed as a declaration of war.”

Long opposed to a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, Israel sought to upset the negotiations in which the Trump administration and President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government in Iran have been engaged for the past two months, the observers said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has instead lobbied for military action to destroy Tehran’s nuclear capability. Mr Trump has repeatedly refused to support such action in favour of diplomacy, while warning Iran that a military option was on the table should the talks fail.

“The most important political goal of this attack was to prevent the continuation of the line of negotiation,” said Mr Karimi, now a director at Nuclear Watch Network, a think tank in Tehran. "And with this attack, Israel has taken the initiative away from Trump."

US involvement?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington played no part in the Israeli strikes. “Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence,” he said.

The US State Department on Wednesday began preparing to evacuate non-essential staff from the American embassy in Baghdad, as regional tension flared amid an impasse in the nuclear deal talks. The US has insisted Iran should not be allowed to enrich uranium under an agreement, while Tehran claims it should be permitted to continue enriching, perhaps with limitations, for non-military scientific and agricultural purposes.

There is widespread belief in Iran that Israel could not have acted without US support, and that the allies had discussed this over the past week.

The attacks took place “with co-ordination with the US, in my opinion, and of course with the co-ordination of some countries in the region – at the least they made their airspaces available and provided logistical support to the US and were in the know about the attack,” Sayed Mohammad Ali Sayedhanaee, founder of the Nations Diplomacy think tank in Tehran, told The National.

Countries in the region, including the UAE, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have condemned the strikes.

Public opinion

Israel's attacks leave the fate of the US-Iran nuclear talks in the balance, with Iranian officials saying they will not attend the next round, scheduled for Sunday in the Omani capital Muscat.

Public anger in Iran over the attacks carried out by the US’s closest ally in the region may make participation more difficult politically for Iranian officials. "Public opinion in Iran does not allow negotiations to continue easily,” Mr Karimi said.

The Israeli strikes may also have been intended to force Iran into concessions should the talks proceed.

“Maybe America’s wish is that with these actions by Israel, Iran will be under greater pressure,” Javad Heirannia, an analyst in Tehran, told The National.

Mr Trump has already heightened his warnings. “Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire,” he posted on his Truth Social platform on Friday morning.

Mr Netanyahu has attempted to appeal to Iranians and to justify the strikes. “To the brave people of Iran: our fight is not with you. Our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years,” he said in a video message published on X.

Iranians largely do not buy into such messaging, observers said. Residents of cities across the country shared videos on social media of terrified civilians running through rubble-strewn streets and inspecting damage to residential buildings, streets and cars. They have framed the attacks as a strike on Iranians – the opposite of Mr Netanyahu’s claim that they were aimed at the government, the military and nuclear infrastructure.

Condemnation

“Even those who are against the government [in Iran] have condemned these actions and don’t believe what Netanyahu says,” Mr Sayedhanaee said. “Another belief in Iran is that Netanyahu has a problem with Iranians on an ethnic and national basis. Essentially, he has a problem with the Iranian nation and it makes no difference who is in government.”

Gulf nations’ condemnation of the attacks has not gone unnoticed in Iran. Wary of the fallout of an Israel-Iran conflict, these countries have in recent years attempted to build better relations with Tehran, while also retaining ties with the US, and in some cases establishing relations with Israel.

“Condemning these [Israeli] attacks is also a sign that they want to stay out of this conflict – such a conflict could have very dangerous economic ramifications for them, and endanger their prospects for development,” Mr Heirannia said. “So while they have links with the US and Israel - whether official or unofficial – they have tried not to incite Iran and so make themselves a target for Iran.”

Ms Geranmayeh said European and Gulf countries should co-ordinate at the highest level to call for de-escalation from Israel, Iran and the US. “This joint effort between Europe and the Gulf Co-operation Council states should aim to prevent another major wave of attacks, which currently look likely,” she said.