The Middle East can expect days of Israeli attacks on Iran as it conducts a “brutal and methodical” assault to ensure it sets back the nuclear programme by many years, military experts have told The National.
Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate
Frank Ledwidge
After Iran's military leadership has been largely decapitated in surgical air strikes it currently appears toothless in its ability to respond to the unprecedented attack on the six-decade-old theocracy.
But if it is to retaliate it needs to do so almost immediately as its military infrastructure was “being [eliminated] at such rate that there will soon be little left,” said former British military intelligence officer, Frank Ledwidge.
A defence source added that the Israelis were going through “an enormous bank of targets that they've started with the highest level” and would now “go through them in an orderly fashion”.
It is also becoming evident that Iran’s apparently strong air defences have proven ineffective and could very soon be wiped out by Israeli attacks.
“We are taking out their aerial defence system so we can operate more freely against their nuclear programme and against their military targets,” the Israeli military official added. “Dozens of radars and surface to air missile launchers have been destroyed.”
Nuclear dark ages
The key focus of attack will be Iran’s nuclear facilities with Israeli intelligence stating that Tehran now had enough enriched uranium to rapidly make 15 nuclear bombs.
While Israel does not have America’s GBU-57 13,600kg bunker buster bombs it does possess large but smaller GBU-28 1,800kg bombs thought to have been used in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.
With his command bunker buried deep below a Beirut apartment block, Israel deployed a number of the large bombs creating geometric patterns to penetrate deep.
Without US bombers, that could be the tactic Israel uses against Iran’s key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow in order to eradicate its nuclear bomb making capability.
That will be the bombing campaign’s priority, said Richard Pater, director of the Anglo-Israeli Bicom think tank.
“The key question is that now embarked on this campaign, how many years are you going to be set be setting back Iran’s nuclear programme back as it had better be a long time,” he said.
“Everyone understands that the Iranian desire for revenge is going to be at a peak, so Israel had better do this thoroughly.”
Israel remains silent about whether its action will result in regime change but it is likely that it will want to remove the leadership that has sacrificed so much in search of its nuclear goal.
Retaliation options
Following Israel’s 18 months of fighting since October 7 attacks, Iran’s biggest deterrent against a backlash, Hezbollah, has been severely depleted and on Friday was only able to issue a benign statement that made no reference to military action.
Other proxies are unlikely to mount serious attacks, although there are concerns that that Houthis in Yemen might be able to up their near daily rocket attack with ballistic missiles, one of which came close to hitting Ben Gurion airport last month.
It now will take a few days for Iran to re-establish command and control over its armed forces after senior commanders were killed and once achieved, they may well have a limited revenge arsenal.
While 100 drones were fired towards Israel soon after Friday’s operation began, it appears that few made the eight or nine hour journey to their destination with most shot down.
That is because Israel now has a triple-layered air defence system that can take out drones, cruise as well as ballistic missiles.
Iran’s massed missile and drone attack last October only managed to kill a single Palestinian and damage an airfield.
That leaves the regime’s only other option of asymmetric warfare of using specialist teams such as Unit 840 to conduct terror attacks at Israeli establishments overseas.
But that will require direction and planning from the top, and Iran’s leadership appears under the unprecedented stress of having many of its generals removed from the battlefield.
Ineffectual Iran?
Defence analysts believe the air campaign could continue for a week, perhaps two to “degrade every aspect of the Iranian military command, control and executive function,” said Mr Ledwidge. “Today is just a start.”
“But the Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate,’ he added.
Subsequently Iran’s internal communications have been seriously disrupted with the deaths the equivalent of Britain’s PJHQ (permanent joint headquarters), Ministry of Defence and head of military all being wiped out on one day, he said.
“Our mission is very clear, to remove an existential threat,” an Israeli military official told The National.
With Iran possessing a considerable stock of ballistic missiles – although their effectiveness is in question – Israel has made a point of attacking its launchers, including inserting a Mossad team, that was potentially local recruited, into Iran for direct strikes.
“We know they have hundreds of ballistic missiles ready to fire towards Israel,” the military official said. “We were able to in our actions this morning to weaken their chain of command, and carry out pre-emptive strikes against ballistic missiles.”
Ultimately the bombing campaign could see a “new Middle East” in the long term, said Dr Efrat Sopher, an Iranian foreign policy analyst.
“The immediate future is very worrying with the Iranian regime causing so much instability with all its tentacles but now removing the head of the octopus I believe will bring about a more a more stable international system and peace through prosperity,” she added.
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Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
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Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
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The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
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