The Middle East can expect days of Israeli attacks on Iran as it conducts a “brutal and methodical” assault to ensure it sets back the nuclear programme by many years, military experts have told The National.
Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate
Frank Ledwidge
After Iran's military leadership has been largely decapitated in surgical air strikes it currently appears toothless in its ability to respond to the unprecedented attack on the six-decade-old theocracy.
But if it is to retaliate it needs to do so almost immediately as its military infrastructure was “being [eliminated] at such rate that there will soon be little left,” said former British military intelligence officer, Frank Ledwidge.
A defence source added that the Israelis were going through “an enormous bank of targets that they've started with the highest level” and would now “go through them in an orderly fashion”.
It is also becoming evident that Iran’s apparently strong air defences have proven ineffective and could very soon be wiped out by Israeli attacks.
“We are taking out their aerial defence system so we can operate more freely against their nuclear programme and against their military targets,” the Israeli military official added. “Dozens of radars and surface to air missile launchers have been destroyed.”
Nuclear dark ages
The key focus of attack will be Iran’s nuclear facilities with Israeli intelligence stating that Tehran now had enough enriched uranium to rapidly make 15 nuclear bombs.
While Israel does not have America’s GBU-57 13,600kg bunker buster bombs it does possess large but smaller GBU-28 1,800kg bombs thought to have been used in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.
With his command bunker buried deep below a Beirut apartment block, Israel deployed a number of the large bombs creating geometric patterns to penetrate deep.
Without US bombers, that could be the tactic Israel uses against Iran’s key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow in order to eradicate its nuclear bomb making capability.
That will be the bombing campaign’s priority, said Richard Pater, director of the Anglo-Israeli Bicom think tank.
“The key question is that now embarked on this campaign, how many years are you going to be set be setting back Iran’s nuclear programme back as it had better be a long time,” he said.
“Everyone understands that the Iranian desire for revenge is going to be at a peak, so Israel had better do this thoroughly.”
Israel remains silent about whether its action will result in regime change but it is likely that it will want to remove the leadership that has sacrificed so much in search of its nuclear goal.
Retaliation options
Following Israel’s 18 months of fighting since October 7 attacks, Iran’s biggest deterrent against a backlash, Hezbollah, has been severely depleted and on Friday was only able to issue a benign statement that made no reference to military action.
Other proxies are unlikely to mount serious attacks, although there are concerns that that Houthis in Yemen might be able to up their near daily rocket attack with ballistic missiles, one of which came close to hitting Ben Gurion airport last month.
It now will take a few days for Iran to re-establish command and control over its armed forces after senior commanders were killed and once achieved, they may well have a limited revenge arsenal.
While 100 drones were fired towards Israel soon after Friday’s operation began, it appears that few made the eight or nine hour journey to their destination with most shot down.
That is because Israel now has a triple-layered air defence system that can take out drones, cruise as well as ballistic missiles.
Iran’s massed missile and drone attack last October only managed to kill a single Palestinian and damage an airfield.
That leaves the regime’s only other option of asymmetric warfare of using specialist teams such as Unit 840 to conduct terror attacks at Israeli establishments overseas.
But that will require direction and planning from the top, and Iran’s leadership appears under the unprecedented stress of having many of its generals removed from the battlefield.
Ineffectual Iran?
Defence analysts believe the air campaign could continue for a week, perhaps two to “degrade every aspect of the Iranian military command, control and executive function,” said Mr Ledwidge. “Today is just a start.”
“But the Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate,’ he added.
Subsequently Iran’s internal communications have been seriously disrupted with the deaths the equivalent of Britain’s PJHQ (permanent joint headquarters), Ministry of Defence and head of military all being wiped out on one day, he said.
“Our mission is very clear, to remove an existential threat,” an Israeli military official told The National.
With Iran possessing a considerable stock of ballistic missiles – although their effectiveness is in question – Israel has made a point of attacking its launchers, including inserting a Mossad team, that was potentially local recruited, into Iran for direct strikes.
“We know they have hundreds of ballistic missiles ready to fire towards Israel,” the military official said. “We were able to in our actions this morning to weaken their chain of command, and carry out pre-emptive strikes against ballistic missiles.”
Ultimately the bombing campaign could see a “new Middle East” in the long term, said Dr Efrat Sopher, an Iranian foreign policy analyst.
“The immediate future is very worrying with the Iranian regime causing so much instability with all its tentacles but now removing the head of the octopus I believe will bring about a more a more stable international system and peace through prosperity,” she added.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
NEW%20UTILITY%20POLICY%3A%20WHAT%20DOES%20IT%20REGULATE%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Agreements%20on%20energy%20and%20water%20supply%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Applied%20service%20fees%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customer%20data%20and%20information%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Prohibition%20of%20service%20disconnections%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customer%20complaint%20process%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Management%20of%20debts%20and%20customers%20in%20default%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Services%20provided%20to%20people%20of%20determination%20and%20home%20care%20customers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
Anti-semitic attacks
The annual report by the Community Security Trust, which advises the Jewish community on security , warned on Thursday that anti-Semitic incidents in Britain had reached a record high.
It found there had been 2,255 anti-Semitic incidents reported in 2021, a rise of 34 per cent from the previous year.
The report detailed the convictions of a number of people for anti-Semitic crimes, including one man who was jailed for setting up a neo-Nazi group which had encouraged “the eradication of Jewish people” and another who had posted anti-Semitic homemade videos on social media.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20PRO%20(12.9%22%2C%202022)
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Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
The%20specs
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
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Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
How it works
A $10 hand-powered LED light and battery bank
Device is operated by hand cranking it at any time during the day or night
The charge is stored inside a battery
The ratio is that for every minute you crank, it provides 10 minutes light on the brightest mode
A full hand wound charge is of 16.5minutes
This gives 1.1 hours of light on high mode or 2.5 hours of light on low mode
When more light is needed, it can be recharged by winding again
The larger version costs between $18-20 and generates more than 15 hours of light with a 45-minute charge
No limit on how many times you can charge
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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