The Middle East can expect days of Israeli attacks on Iran as it conducts a “brutal and methodical” assault to ensure it sets back the nuclear programme by many years, military experts have told The National.
Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate
Frank Ledwidge
After Iran's military leadership has been largely decapitated in surgical air strikes it currently appears toothless in its ability to respond to the unprecedented attack on the six-decade-old theocracy.
But if it is to retaliate it needs to do so almost immediately as its military infrastructure was “being [eliminated] at such rate that there will soon be little left,” said former British military intelligence officer, Frank Ledwidge.
A defence source added that the Israelis were going through “an enormous bank of targets that they've started with the highest level” and would now “go through them in an orderly fashion”.
It is also becoming evident that Iran’s apparently strong air defences have proven ineffective and could very soon be wiped out by Israeli attacks.
“We are taking out their aerial defence system so we can operate more freely against their nuclear programme and against their military targets,” the Israeli military official added. “Dozens of radars and surface to air missile launchers have been destroyed.”
Nuclear dark ages
The key focus of attack will be Iran’s nuclear facilities with Israeli intelligence stating that Tehran now had enough enriched uranium to rapidly make 15 nuclear bombs.
While Israel does not have America’s GBU-57 13,600kg bunker buster bombs it does possess large but smaller GBU-28 1,800kg bombs thought to have been used in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.
With his command bunker buried deep below a Beirut apartment block, Israel deployed a number of the large bombs creating geometric patterns to penetrate deep.
Without US bombers, that could be the tactic Israel uses against Iran’s key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow in order to eradicate its nuclear bomb making capability.
That will be the bombing campaign’s priority, said Richard Pater, director of the Anglo-Israeli Bicom think tank.
“The key question is that now embarked on this campaign, how many years are you going to be set be setting back Iran’s nuclear programme back as it had better be a long time,” he said.
“Everyone understands that the Iranian desire for revenge is going to be at a peak, so Israel had better do this thoroughly.”
Israel remains silent about whether its action will result in regime change but it is likely that it will want to remove the leadership that has sacrificed so much in search of its nuclear goal.
Retaliation options
Following Israel’s 18 months of fighting since October 7 attacks, Iran’s biggest deterrent against a backlash, Hezbollah, has been severely depleted and on Friday was only able to issue a benign statement that made no reference to military action.
Other proxies are unlikely to mount serious attacks, although there are concerns that that Houthis in Yemen might be able to up their near daily rocket attack with ballistic missiles, one of which came close to hitting Ben Gurion airport last month.
It now will take a few days for Iran to re-establish command and control over its armed forces after senior commanders were killed and once achieved, they may well have a limited revenge arsenal.
While 100 drones were fired towards Israel soon after Friday’s operation began, it appears that few made the eight or nine hour journey to their destination with most shot down.
That is because Israel now has a triple-layered air defence system that can take out drones, cruise as well as ballistic missiles.
Iran’s massed missile and drone attack last October only managed to kill a single Palestinian and damage an airfield.
That leaves the regime’s only other option of asymmetric warfare of using specialist teams such as Unit 840 to conduct terror attacks at Israeli establishments overseas.
But that will require direction and planning from the top, and Iran’s leadership appears under the unprecedented stress of having many of its generals removed from the battlefield.
Ineffectual Iran?
Defence analysts believe the air campaign could continue for a week, perhaps two to “degrade every aspect of the Iranian military command, control and executive function,” said Mr Ledwidge. “Today is just a start.”
“But the Iranians can't afford to wait a week to respond because they're going to be attrited now at a very high rate,’ he added.
Subsequently Iran’s internal communications have been seriously disrupted with the deaths the equivalent of Britain’s PJHQ (permanent joint headquarters), Ministry of Defence and head of military all being wiped out on one day, he said.
“Our mission is very clear, to remove an existential threat,” an Israeli military official told The National.
With Iran possessing a considerable stock of ballistic missiles – although their effectiveness is in question – Israel has made a point of attacking its launchers, including inserting a Mossad team, that was potentially local recruited, into Iran for direct strikes.
“We know they have hundreds of ballistic missiles ready to fire towards Israel,” the military official said. “We were able to in our actions this morning to weaken their chain of command, and carry out pre-emptive strikes against ballistic missiles.”
Ultimately the bombing campaign could see a “new Middle East” in the long term, said Dr Efrat Sopher, an Iranian foreign policy analyst.
“The immediate future is very worrying with the Iranian regime causing so much instability with all its tentacles but now removing the head of the octopus I believe will bring about a more a more stable international system and peace through prosperity,” she added.
Pakistan T20 series squad
Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Fakhar Zaman, Ahmed Shahzad, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammed Hafeez, Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Mohammed Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Amir Yamin, Mohammed Amir (subject to fitness clearance), Rumman Raees, Usman Shinwari, Umar Amin
Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Mane 51', Salah 53'
Chelsea 0
Man of the Match: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
WORLD CUP SQUAD
Dimuth Karunaratne (Captain), Angelo Mathews, Avishka Fernando, Lahiru Thirimanne, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kusal Perera (wk), Dhananjaya de Silva, Thisara Perera, Isuru Udana, Jeffrey Vandersay, Jeevan Mendis, Milinda Siriwardana, Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep
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The stats: 2017 Jaguar XJ
Price, base / as tested Dh326,700 / Dh342,700
Engine 3.0L V6
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 340hp @ 6,000pm
Torque 450Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.1L / 100km
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
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Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
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MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
Naga
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Maestro
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LEADERBOARD
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The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
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- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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South Korea
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ON%20TRACK
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
Directed by: Michael Fimognari
Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo
Two stars
Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
Penguin
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Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
Day 2, stumps
Pakistan 482
Australia 30/0 (13 ov)
Australia trail by 452 runs with 10 wickets remaining in the innings
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BMW M5 specs
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
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- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
