In only a matter of days it has become clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government is the closest it has come to collapse.
It is not because of the catastrophic security failure of the October 7, 2023, attacks; the Israeli hostages still languishing in Gaza; nor the unprecedented international isolation facing Israel as anger mounts over its war in the strip.
Instead, Israel could be on the cusp of new elections because of an internal dispute tearing apart Mr Netanyahu’s coalition, which turns on its failure to exempt ultra-Orthodox young men from being conscripted into the military. Passing such a law is a priority of certain parties, and a demand they made of Mr Netanyahu when joining his coalition.
The army is viewed as a melting pot of secular and religious, men and women, in which young ultra-Orthodox men are highly likely to drift from the conservative ways.
Many ultra-Orthodox people are ambivalent about nationalism and the state of Israel, some even anti-Zionist, viewing the state as a man-made enterprise and not the true Israel to be brought about only by God.
The crisis is hardly a surprise. How ultra-Orthodox Israelis interact with wider national life is a question that has dogged the country for decades. The community’s leaders try to guard their people from anything that might interrupt their secluded, strict way of life.
That mission is becoming harder to pull off as the group's numbers have grown by more than 500 per cent since 1979, according to a 2023 report by the Haredi Policy Research Institute.
While the question of military service was always a part of the debate, it also extended to issues like participation (particularly by men) in the general workforce, how the community educates its children, and the subsidies it receives.
But with the Israeli military suffering a manpower shortage during the Gaza war, new security problems on the horizon and major fatigue in reservist troops, the ultra-Orthodox absence from duty is enraging all other Israelis, from left to right.
How did the crisis begin?
Last week, United Torah Judaism, one of the two ultra-Orthodox parties in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition, backed dissolving the Knesset to pave the way for elections. On Monday, the other party, Shas, announced that it backed the same.
Shas’s involvement means that Mr Netanyahu would no longer have a majority in the Knesset, a devastating blow as opposition parties would easily have the numbers to topple the government.
A way out of the crisis could lie with the ultra-Orthodox parties and Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, who have not been able to find a compromise, despite last-ditch talks. Mr Edelstein, a member of Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party, previously vowed to find a solution that “significantly increases [the military’s] conscription base", echoing frustration by many in the ultranationalist, hawkish coalition at the ultra-Orthodox refusal to serve.
Last week a spiritual leader in the Shas party said Mr Edelstein’s “soul is an abomination”.
Is there room for compromise?
An enlistment bill being drafted by Mr Edelstein’s committee reportedly includes major financial sanctions against ultra-Orthodox men who ignore draft orders, including the loss of tax benefits and subsidies. There are even reports that the sanctions would prevent dodgers from travelling abroad.
While it is possible some of these sanctions could be negotiated on, the main disagreement about whether the community should be drafted at all appears insurmountable.
“I don’t see that they’ll find a compromise regarding the scope of sanctions,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former spokesman for Mr Netanyahu.
“What they want to do is to find a way that the sanctions will be implemented not immediately but within a year from now … but again you hear the spiritual leaders say no way by all means."
What could happen next?
Opponents of Mr Netanyahu now have to decide how to best approach a possible bill to dissolve parliament. Such a bill would have to pass a preliminary vote and then three readings.
If it does not complete these steps then there is a delay until the same bill can be voted on again, giving Mr Netanyahu months to continue negotiations with coalition partners for a solution.
How likely are the ultra-Orthodox parties to topple the government?
While the rage of the ultra-Orthodox parties is palpable, many commentators note that they are unlikely after new elections to find a government even close to as sympathetic as Mr Netanyahu’s.
Emphasising the unjustness of ultra-Orthodox exemptions while sympathising with the sacrifice of soldiers is a crucial tactic of opposition parties, whose voters are unlikely to tolerate supporting a government that gives the ultra-Orthodox leeway on the issue.
Despite this, the anger and threats of the community’s political and spiritual leaders have never been so strong. It is also uncertain the extent to which the leadership views triggering elections as a matter of worldly tactical politics or God’s will.
What does this mean for Netanyahu?
Mr Netanyahu is by far the most successful politician in Israeli history, serving several terms in office. He is viewed as a truly gifted political survivor and has so far weathered the scandal of the October 7 attacks, despite many believing he would not last six months after at first, and a continuing corruption trial.
However, Mr Bushinsky said that his current position is very bad.
“As things are at the moment, Netanyahu is being dragged, not leading, not controlling the situation,” he said. “His approach now is to hug his allies and say everyone is having good conversations. This is not customary to him. He is usually very aggressive and tries to keep control.
“Netanyahu wants to reach something more tangible – a flag he can wave, be it a strike on Iran, total victory in Gaza. At the moment to go to elections without such tangible successes would be devastating.”
