On November 11, Iraqis will head to the polls in their country’s sixth parliamentary elections since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein's regime. These elections are expected to be highly competitive and much depends upon their outcome.
A radical change to the structure of the political system, which has been in place since 2003, is not expected. Rather, the outcomes are likely to recalibrate the weights of the traditional political parties and therefore the distribution of power and influence within the ruling structure.
The polls will be governed by an electoral law that was amended in March 2023 despite objections from protesters and independent politicians. These amendments could make it harder for independent candidates and small parties to compete against bigger parties and to reach the legislative body.
There is no indication whether or not the powerful Shiite cleric and political leader Moqtada Al Sadr will take part in the elections. Mr Al Sadr withdrew from the political process when he failed to form a majority government with only Sunni and Kurdish parties after winning 73 of the 329 seats in parliament in the 2021 polls.
Iran-backed armed factions are seeking political clout after coming under unprecedented pressure since the start of the war on Gaza. They are either standing in the elections alone or within coalitions.
According to the Independent High Electoral Commission, there are 343 registered political parties in the country, and another 60 are being formed. Of those, 118 parties and 25 coalitions have confirmed their participation in November's elections, according to the commission.
The nature of these coalitions reflects the divisions among the main three ethnic and religious groups: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. They also reflect the desire of the powerful political players to reduce their rivals' influence within each group and exclude them from the decision-making centres.
What are the main coalitions?
The Reconstruction and Development Coalition
This coalition is led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is attempting to create a new equation in the competition among the Shiite parties, setting his eyes on a second term in office.
The coalition consists of several political groups, as well as political and economic figures. Among his main allies are the US-sanctioned chairman of the paramilitary Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) Falih Al Fayyadh, and the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, Ahmed Al Asadi, who also leads Kataib Jund Al Imam armed faction.
Others are the National Coalition led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, the National Alliance of Solutions led by one of the PM’s advisers, Mohammed Sahib Al Daraji, Karbala Creativity Alliance and The Generations Gathering.
The biggest challenge facing Mr Al Sudani’s coalition is lack of support from key factions within the Coordination Framework, an umbrella group of Iran-backed political parties and militias which controls the majority of seats in parliament. Top among them is the State of Law Coalition led by former prime minster Nouri Al Maliki.
State of Law Coalition
This is considered one of the most prominent Shiite alliances. It has grassroots support in central and southern parts of the country, relying heavily on the weight of Mr Al Maliki, who served two terms in office from 2006 to 2014 and still has significant influence within state institutions. One of Mr Al Maliki’s strategies is to form or support lists in Sunni and Sunni-dominated areas to expand his influence and weaken his rivals.
For the first time in years, Mr Al Maliki announced he is running in the elections, in a move seen as an attempt to counter Mr Al Sudani.
Badr List
It is led by senior politician Hadi Al Amiri, who heads the Badr Brigade, one of the oldest Iran-aligned militias, which dates back to 1980s Iraq-Iran war. Other medium-sized and small militia groups have joined the list in some parts of the country.
Like the head of the State of Law Coalition, Mr Al Amiri is running for the first time in years.
Al Sadiqoun List
This is affiliated to the influential Asaib Ahl Al Haq armed faction led by Shiite cleric Qais Al Khazali. AAH is one of the main backers of Mr Al Sudani's government and its members hold senior government positions. In December 2019, the Treasury Department blacklisted Mr Al Khazali, along with two militia leaders.
The National State Forces Alliance
The coalition is led by Shiite cleric Ammar Al Hakim. One of his main allies is former prime minister Haider Al Abadi, who oversaw the fight against ISIS from 2014 to the end of 2017 when he announced that the group had been defeated.
The coalition presents itself as a moderate and a reformist political group that seeks to move beyond the sectarian divisions. It relies heavily on the symbolic stature of Mr Al Hakim, who is from a prominent Shiite religious family.
The Hoquq Movement
A political group backed by Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful armed faction within the Axis of Resistance – an Iran-backed umbrella group for militias in the region. It sent fighters to Syria after civil war broke out in 2011 to support president Bashar Al Assad and launched attacks against US troops in Iraq and Syria.
Takadum Coalition
This is led by former parliament speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi, who has emerged as a prominent Sunni political leader in recent years. Most of his support comes from his home province of Al Anbar, in western Iraq, where he formerly served as governor.
The alliance also includes independent politicians, technocrats and tribal leaders from Al Anbar and other Sunni-dominated provinces.
Siyada Coalition
The coalition is led by Sunni tycoon Khamis Al Khanjar. In 2021, it emerged as the largest Sunni coalition but it quickly disintegrated when Mr Al Halbousi broke away.
Mr Al Khanjar enjoys tribal support mainly in Al Anabr and Salaheddin provinces as well as regional support from countries such as Turkey and Qatar.
Azem Alliance
Led by Sunni politician Muthana Al Samarraie, this coalition emerged in 2021 following deep disagreements and political divisions between Mr Al Khanjar and Mr Al Halbousi.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party
One of the two major parties in the Iraq Kurdish region, it is led by prominent Kurdish politician Masoud Barzani. KDP dominates the provinces of Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan Region, and Dahuk, maintaining control over the regional government and presidency.
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
This is the KDP's main rival, which is led by Bafel Talabani and controls Sulaymaniyah and Halabja provinces. Both KDP and PUK, who have a delicate power-sharing arrangement to run the region, used to run national elections in one list along with other small Kurdish parties, but in recent years they have participated separately.
The New Generation Movement
It is the newest and most dynamic opposition political party in the Kurdistan region, led by businessman Shaswar Abdul Wahid. It was established as a popular reaction to what was widely perceived as corruption and monopolisation of power by the two traditional parties KDP and PUK.
It has attracted a broad base of support, mainly among young people, intellectuals and those disillusioned with the current political order in the region. It came third in October 2024 parliamentary elections in the region.
