A ceasefire deal between the US and Yemen’s Houthis appears fragile after the rebels vowed to continue attacking Israeli interests, while Gulf states continue to push for de-escalation, experts told The National on Thursday.
The agreement, mediated by Oman on Tuesday night, stipulates that neither the US or the Houthis would target the other, including US vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb strait.
The truce comes seven weeks after the US launched an intense bombing campaign on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen in an attempt to stop their attacks on international shipping lanes. The US military has said it has struck more than 1,000 targets. The strikes, the military said, have killed “hundreds of Houthi fighters and numerous Houthi leaders”. Scores of civilians have also been killed.
“The ceasefire remains uncertain. The Houthis continue to exchange fire with Israel and have threatened retaliation following Israeli air strikes on Sanaa and Hodeidah in the last two days,” Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the Crisis Group told The National. “The situation remains volatile and could quickly deteriorate.”
The Houthis have been firing at Israel and at ships in the Red Sea since Israel began its war in Gaza on October 7 2023. The Iran-backed group says the attacks are in support of Palestinians.
US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had agreed to stop disrupting important shipping lanes in the Middle East. But the rebels claim that only US ships are part of the deal and they will continue to attack Israeli ships to pressure the country into agreeing to a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
“The ceasefire is very fragile as the Houthis are vowing to continue attacks on Israel which can easily drag back the US,” Baraa Shiban, a Yemen expert and associate fellow at the Royal United Service Institute in London, told The National.
Mr Shiban said the deal has seen the “end of this round of fighting but all the seeds are there for more confrontation with the US in the near future”.
If the Houthis continue their attacks on non-US ships in the Red Sea, that may “test the limits of the deal”, especially as the US is committed to securing the area, said Elana DeLozier, a Yemen specialist at the Sage Institute for Foreign Affairs.
“The Houthis frame their actions as defensive, they argue that if the other party stops, they will stop. In that context, this quid pro quo ceasefire with the United States aligns with long-standing Houthi rhetoric,” Ms DeLozier said.
De-escalation in the region
The timing of the de-escalation is linked to increased contact between the US, Oman, Iran and Saudi Arabia, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at London's Chatham House, told The National.
“All parties see connectivity in regional conflicts and are looking for opportunities to de-escalate. Engagement between US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and the Omani government in tandem to the Iran negotiations has helped to facilitate this deal,” Ms Vakil said.
director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House
“President Trump will see this as a notch on his peace making endeavours.”
The deal could be seen as a victory on both sides, said Dina Esfindiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead at Bloomberg Economics.
It is a win for Mr Trump as “it looks like he got the Houthis to capitulate and stop attacks, and a win for the Houthis, because the deal concerns US vessels in particular [of which there aren't many there anyway]”, she said.
Mr Trump will visit the Gulf next week – probably a major factor leading to the deal with the Houthis.
“It is in Trump's and Riyadh's interest for his visit to Saudi Arabia to be calm and for his presence to be coupled with major economic deals with wealthy Gulf states,” Maged Al Madhaji, co-founder of the Sanaa centre, told The National.
The visit and the agreement come against the backdrop of negotiations between Iran and the US on Tehran's nuclear programme. The Houthi deal also complements the nuclear talks, Mr Al Madhaji said.
The deal can be seen as a confidence-building measure between Iran and US and the nuclear talks have incentivised it, Dina Arakji, associate analyst at Control Risks, told The National. “Tehran will want to demonstrate to the US its capability to facilitate de-escalation in the region,” she said.
A fourth round of nuclear talks is likely to take place at the weekend in Muscat, with Iranian state media suggesting the meeting would happen on Sunday.
Israeli strikes on Yemen
While Gulf states and Iran welcomed the truce between the US and the Yemeni rebels, it appeared Israel had not been aware as it intensified strikes on the Houthis in response to an attack on Ben Gurion Airport this week.
The move “highlighted poor co-ordination between Tel Aviv and Washington over military operations against the Houthis”, Mr Nagi said. It also showed that “Israel may continue targeting the Houthis with or without US co-ordination, and further escalation is likely if the Houthis persist in attacking Israeli territory”, he added. There could be an expansion in the scope and intensity of attacks in the coming days, he said.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on X on Thursday that the Houthis will suffer heavy blows if they continue to fire at the country.
However, Israel will also want to avoid an escalation of the conflict in Yemen ahead of Mr Trump's visit to the Gulf region, Ms Arakji said.
“However, the Houthis will likely continue to launch strikes against Israel over the coming weeks aiming to re-assert the credibility of their threats to the international community,” she said.
