Donald Trump’s Suez comments sink Egypt-US relations deeper into uncertain territory

Egypt's relations with the US are edging deeper into uncertain territory as proposals affecting Cairo by President Donald Trump test one of Washington's most enduring partnerships in the Middle East.

Soon after taking office in January, Mr Trump proposed that Palestinians from the war-battered Gaza Strip be resettled in Egypt and Jordan, an idea rejected by both countries. Last weekend, he suggested Egypt should allow US vessels, both military and commercial, to transit the Suez Canal free of charge.

Analysts and sources with first-hand knowledge of the dynamics of US-Egypt relations rule out the possibility of the friendship forged in the 1970s turning into open hostility or a parting of ways, but they believe it is set for a period of tumult and distrust that could last until Mr Trump's second term ends in 2029.

Egypt has said Mr Trump's proposal to move Palestinians from Gaza across the border into its sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula would not only make it party to a historical injustice and hollow out the Palestinian cause, but would also pose a threat to its national security.

Cairo has yet to officially respond to the suggestion of free passage for US vessels through the Suez but the idea has been dismissed as preposterous by pro-government TV talk show hosts, who have devoted much of their broadcasts since the weekend to the issue, using patriotic and defiant rhetoric.

Estimates put the total amount of transit fees paid annually by US ships that sail through the canal at about $150 million, with about 40 warships and 300 commercial vessels making the journey.

"It is difficult to imagine that Trump is worried about this small amount of money," said Anis Salem, a retired career diplomat from Egypt who is now a senior member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, a think tank in Cairo.

"It's likely more about his business mindset of 'no such thing as a free lunch'," he added, speculating that Mr Trump's demand may be rooted in his belief that the US air campaign against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi forces to stop their attacks on Red Sea shipping is designed to help the Suez Canal regain the traffic it has lost as a result.

The Houthi attacks, ostensibly in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, have slashed by more than half Egypt's revenue from the canal, a main source of foreign currency for the cash-strapped nation of 106 million.

Signs of tension between Cairo and the Trump administration emerged in early February when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi indefinitely put off a White House visit he had been expected to make later that month, sources told The National at the time.

The Egyptian leader's move followed Mr Trump's proposal to relocate Gaza's population and bring the tiny enclave on the East Mediterranean under US control before turning it into a glitzy resort – ideas that have been denounced by much of the world but warmly embraced by Israel, Washington's closest Middle East ally and biggest beneficiary of US aid.

For his part, Mr Trump omitted Egypt from his Middle East tour next month, when he plans stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

"It's a strategic mistake to belittle Egypt's role in the region by leaving it out of his tour," said Mr Salem.

"After all, Egypt's US-sponsored 1979 peace treaty with Israel is probably one of Washington's biggest foreign policy achievement in 50 years."

He pointed out that Mr Trump did not visit Egypt during his first term in office between 2017 and 2021.

The direction in which US-Egypt relations will turn, however, may be decided in large part by whether Mr Trump pursues his idea of relocating Gaza's population and continues to give Israel free rein in the war, which has killed more than 52,300 Palestinians since it began 18 months ago.

"A great deal depends on what happens in Gaza when it comes to Egypt's relations with the Trump administration," said Michael Hanna, the New York-based director of the US programme at the International Crisis Group.

"Israel is of no mind to agree to a ceasefire or pull back from pieces of Gaza it has occupied, and it is not under any real pressure from the Americans to do any of that," he told The National.

"Neither Egypt nor the US are looking for a fight but the Egyptians feel a little under siege these days."

Significantly, Mr Trump exempted both Egypt and Israel from his decision to terminate foreign aid programmes. However, he appeared to raise the possibility of this changing in the case of Egypt when he publicly expressed disappointment at its rejection of his idea to resettle Palestinians there, despite receiving billions of dollars in US aid over the years.

Egypt and the US are not new to disputes, having been at odds over a range of issues in the past.

These include what successive Egyptian governments see as Washington's heavy bias in favour of Israel, Cairo's military ties with communist North Korea and, in the past decade, Egypt's arms purchases from Russia, which it has tacitly supported politically in its war against western-backed Ukraine.

Another point of contention has been US criticism of Egypt's human rights record, which had at times led Washington to partly suspend or withhold its military assistance package, which currently runs at $1.3 billion a year.

In recent weeks, Egypt has stepped up its policy of diversifying its US-dominated arsenal and deepening military ties with two of Washington's biggest adversaries – Russia and China.

It has recently purchased a cutting-edge air defence system from Beijing and is considering buying Chinese jet fighters with capabilities similar to the US-made F-16s it already has in service, the sources say.

It is also holding its first joint aerial war drills with China this month and has just completed naval war games with Russia in the Mediterranean.

The sources said China's President Xi Jinping was likely to make a milestone visit to Egypt in the near future, although there has been no official announcement.

However, while these arms purchases and war games send a clear message to Washington that Cairo is not beholden to US largesse or influence, the policy of diversifying Egypt's weaponry has its limitations, the sources said.

The Egyptian military is mostly built on US weapons and systems after more than 40 years and billions of dollars of procurement, the sources said, suggesting that, in some cases, their compatibility with non-US weapons could pose a challenge.

The two countries have also been co-operating in counter-terrorism, sharing intelligence and conducting joint war games since the 1980s, creating deep bonds between their militaries. US warships are given priority when transiting the Suez Canal and Egypt's airspace is routinely available to US warplanes.

Moreover, they point out, the US continues to maintain a presence in the Middle East that, unlike other parts of the world where it faces competition from China and Russia, cannot be replaced by other powers.

The Egypt-Israel peace treaty, for example, has been a cornerstone of Middle East stability since it was signed nearly a half century ago. Today, it serves as the guiding light for Washington's efforts to encourage more countries in the region to make peace with Israel.

The US also is the only country with enough leverage over Israel to settle its decades-long conflict with the Palestinians, which Arab states, including Egypt, have been beseeching Washington to do for decades.

With this in mind, Mr El Sisi has been careful not to antagonise the US President despite strong opposition to his Middle East ideas, always making clear in public comments that Mr Trump alone has what it takes to bring peace and stability to the region.

"All this might at the end be no more than a storm in a teacup," said Mr Salem.