Muscat set to host first US-Iran technical talks in third round of negotiations

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Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Muscat on Friday evening for a third round of indirect nuclear talks with the US and the first meeting of technical experts from the two sides.

The US team of experts is headed by the State Department's director of policy planning Michael Anton, while the Iranian team will be led Iran's two deputy foreign ministers, Majid Takht-e Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi.

The experts' meeting will be followed by further negotiations between the Iranian and American delegations, led by Mr Araghchi and the US envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, respectively, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

Saturday's talks are expected to be the most in-depth so far as the two sides attempt to reach a new nuclear accord after President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the previous pact in 2018 during his first term, three years after it was agreed under former president Barack Obama.

Mohammad Al Zaghool, a researcher on Iranian and Arab Gulf Affairs at the Emirates Policy Centre, said the current discussions were taking place under very different circumstances from those that led to the 2015 pact. "Time is such a crucial factor and the options are limited," Mr Al Zaghool said.

Mr Trump last month gave Iran two months to reach a new agreement on curtailing its nuclear programme. Iran also faces the risk that the remaining parties to the 2015 deal might invoke a provision to "snap-back" UN sanctions before it expires in October.

Unlike the 2015 agreement, which also involved Europe, Russia and China, the negotiations this time are between the US and Iran exclusively.

So far, the discussions have focused only on Iran's nuclear programme and ensuring that it does not develop nuclear weapons, not other potential sticking points such as its ballistic missile programme or proxies across the region.

The involvement of Israel, albeit from the sidelines, might further complicate matters, Iranian writer and historian Arash Azizi told The National.

"Since President Trump has recently spoken with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, affirming that they are on the same page on Iran, there is a chance that there might be new hurdles or firmer positions by the US in the coming meeting on Saturday," he said.

Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly called for strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent it from developing atomic weapons.

Thomas Juneau, associate fellow with the Mena programme at Chatham House, said he expects "more tensions" to emerge over the next weeks and months, in a divergence from the cordial atmosphere around the initial talks.

"Lower-level people in both governments will meet and try to run through the massive amount of detail that needs to be worked out, and that will be frustrating," Mr Juneau said.

Technical talks are limited in what they can achieve and will not shift the broad parameters of what can be agreed on, he added. Sticking points could include whether the US will accept Iran continuing to enrich uranium under its nuclear programme, which it insists is for peaceful civilian purposes.

Mr Witkoff recently said Iran could enrich uranium to 3.67 per cent, the limit set under the 2015 pact, before making a U-turn and insisting that all enrichment must stop − something Tehran has ruled out.

Europe's role, or lack thereof, will also be a factor. In a tweet on Thursday, Mr Araghchi said he was willing to visit Germany, the UK and France – the "E3" group of nations that were part of the 2015 pact.

“The ball is now in the E3’s court,” he wrote. “They have an opportunity to do away with the grip of Special Interest groups and forge a different path.”

But Iran has long been frustrated with the E3, Mr Juneau said.

"European investment and trade in Iran after the nuclear deal didn’t materialise into what Iran had hoped. The E3 was marginalised [in the talks] and Iran is seizing on this context."

Whether Saturday's talks yield significant progress or not, continuing the negotiation process might provide the opportunity for the US and Iran to find a middle ground.