All eyes on trade and peace prospects when Donald Trump visits Gulf

Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip When US President Donald Trump lands in Saudi Arabia next month, it will be almost exactly eight years since he visited the kingdom on his first foreign visit during his earlier term in office. In some ways, the trip to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar from May 13-16 will be similar. It will be the US leader's first scheduled overseas trip of his second term, following a short trip to the Vatican for Pope Francis ’ funeral this weekend . The visit is likely to focus on many of the same issues as his trip in 2017, including defence and economic co-operation, analysts say. In other respects, the trip will be very different. In the intervening eight years, the Middle East has been reshaped by devastating conflicts, notably in Gaza and Lebanon , and the continuation of the war in Yemen . In 2017, Mr Trump was preparing to rip up a nuclear agreement with Iran signed under the Obama administration. Now the US is holding indirect talks with Tehran to try to seal another deal . Mr Trump’s trip is expected to set the tone for his administration’s broader strategy in a rapidly evolving region, where there are mounting calls for an end to Israel ’s war in Gaza – and on other fronts – and high-intensity diplomacy is taking place, from Moscow to Oman. Trade and investment are likely to be key items on the agenda, observers say. In January, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Mr Trump that the kingdom wants to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years. “President Trump is focused on securing deals that bring investment into the US and increase US exports,” said Sarah Al Shawwaf, a Dubai-based partner at Albright Stonebridge Group, a business strategy firm. The US emphasis will be on attracting Gulf capital, while Gulf countries are seeking greater local investment, manufacturing and access to American technology and knowledge, she told The National . Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund, the PIF , manages assets worth $925 billion and already has interests in electric car company Lucid and ride-hailing firm Uber, as well as in US equities. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding is an investor in Elon Musk -owned social media platform X and artificial intelligence start-up xAI. For the UAE , the White House last month announced that the country had <a href="https://are01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Ffuture%2Ftechnology%2F2025%2F03%2F18%2Fuae-white-house-trump-washington%2F&data=05%7C02%7Clporter%40thenationalnews.com%7C1766e6d7b4ed4d4f9cf108dd823ec5a0%7Ce52b6fadc5234ad692ce73ed77e9b253%7C0%7C0%7C638809928307401080%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=S0q8MIIfv0KWlCdAxx9H2JrG%2FQOcsnmkAZvi667MrE0%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank" rel="">committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework involving AI , semiconductors, energy and manufacturing. In addition, Emirates Global Aluminium plans to invest in the first new aluminium smelter in the US in 35 years, officials said. Other companies from the Gulf, such as Bahrain 's Investcorp, are investing heavily in the US. Mr Trump's visit is likely to produce deals in the public and private sectors, Ms Al Shawwaf said. “In addition to private-sector deals, we expect the US and KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] to announce a series of government-to-government agreements across strategic sectors including defence, technology, infrastructure, energy and space,” she said. Washington imposed 10 per cent "reciprocal" tariffs on Gulf countries this month, potentially curbing exports from the region to the US – although this represents the lowest level of duties imposed by the Trump administration. The UAE is the US’s largest export market in the Middle East, with $34.4 billion in exports in 2024. Direct Emirati investment in the US exceeds $1 trillion, according to the UAE embassy in Washington. The US government says its trade in goods with Saudi Arabia was worth about $25.9 billion last year. One major complication is ever-increasing US energy production and exports to markets in which Gulf countries have previously had an unrivalled share, said Amro Zakaria, a financial markets strategist and the founding partner of Kyoto Network and Madarik Ventures. The outcomes of the latest visit will depend on whether those involved can produce "tangible economic gains" to meet their political pledges, in a climate of "protectionism, oil market volatility, and regional security challenges”, he added. Each country on the itinerary hopes to gain a stronger alliance and secure favourable investments during the visit, while avoiding competing with each other for US support, Sinem Cengiz, an academic at Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Centre, told The National. “Trump’s visits to the Gulf states do not suggest that each country is competing with one another for US support,” she said. “Rather, states like Qatar , Saudi Arabia and the UAE play different but complementary roles in the region.” The visit will also present an opportunity for Gulf countries to portray themselves as increasingly adept players in global diplomacy – appealing to Mr Trump’s keenness to be peacemaker. Saudi Arabia has hosted several rounds of talks between officials from Washington, Moscow and Kyiv in an attempt to end the three-year conflict in Ukraine, although that process has stalled with Kyiv's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal that largely conforms to Russian desires. The UAE has burnished its diplomatic credentials by successfully mediating several rounds of talks for the release of prisoners of war from Russia and Ukraine . “Ahead of the visit, high-level diplomacy has intensified across the region,” Ms Cengiz said. “Qatar’s Emir visited Russia, while the Saudi Defence Minister visited Tehran for talks with Iran’s supreme leader. The Gulf states are clearly positioning themselves as key players in the US-Russia and US-Iran dynamics.” The Saudi visit to Tehran last week indicated Riyadh’s willingness to balance its close ties with the US, and Iran, with whom it has repaired relations in recent years. The aim for Saudi Arabia of broadening relationships with both Washington and Tehran is to “shield itself from any escalation of the conflicts roiling the Middle East”, the Soufan Centre in New York said in an analysis note. If talks over Iran’s nuclear programme fail , Gulf countries want to avoid any fallout from potential US or Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Saudi Arabia was cautiously pessimistic over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from which Mr Trump later withdrew. This time, it has welcomed the talks attempting to reach a new pact, seemingly warming to diplomacy to avoid an escalation that would threaten its economy and national security. The visit also comes as the US, Egypt and Qatar continue efforts to mediate an end to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The latest proposal from Doha and Cairo provides for a truce lasting five to seven years, the release of the remaining 59 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees in Israel , and an end to 18 months of conflict in the enclave. With such an agreement still not in hand and the war in Gaza continuing, Mr Trump’s support for Israel breeds caution among the Gulf states he will visit, analysts say. The Trump administration has dangled the idea of a bilateral defence pact committing Washington to Saudi Arabia’s security. But it made such an agreement dependent on Riyadh forming diplomatic ties with Israel, as Mr Trump pushes for an expansion of the Abraham Accords that led to re-establishing some Arab and Muslim countries’ relations with Israel in his first term. Saudi Arabian officials have repeatedly said they will not do this without the recognition of a Palestinian state - which Israel, in turn, refuses. Senior Gulf state officials have bluntly rejected Israeli policy around Gaza, including the idea of moving Palestinians from their homeland. Mr Trump "is keen on expanding the Abraham Accords but Gulf leaders are consistent for a clear, definitive approach to a two-state solution on the Israeli-Palestinian issue”, Ms Cengiz added. “Trump is likely to hear a consistent stance from Saudi leaders on this matter particularly.”

All eyes on trade and peace prospects when Donald Trump visits Gulf

Middle East has changed since Trump's first presidential visit in 2017 – but he still wants the Gulf onside