Half a century has passed since the outbreak of the 15-year Lebanese Civil War, a vicious, multifaceted conflict characterised by sectarianism, foreign intervention, powerful militias and a state struggling to impose itself.
But while the guns may have stopped firing at each other, those characteristics shape today's Lebanon. Despite the war officially ending and armed groups – except Hezbollah – disarming, power remains in the hands of the same ruling class and militia leaders-turned-politicians.
“As long as you have the warlords still in power, it's difficult to put an end to the civil war,” said Paula Yacoubian, often regarded as the first independent MP without affiliation to the old powers. She has been in the position since 2018.
“Sometimes I don't feel it's all behind us because of that – and because there was never real reconciliation between the Lebanese,” Ms Yacoubian added. “Up until today we said: let's forget the past, and we don't want to dig into these hard memories.”
In 2022, another 12 reformist MPs joined Ms Yacoubian when they were elected to the 128-seat legislature.
Together they formed the Change Bloc of MPs – generally regarded as politicians who do not belong to the traditional ruling class that had leveraged patronage systems for decades.
“The civil war is not over yet,” said Marc Daou, one of the bloc's MPs, who was elected in 2022 when he defeated Talal Arslan, a prominent Druze leader and former cabinet minister, for a seat in the Aley district of Mount Lebanon.
The war left around 150,000 dead and displaced hundreds of thousands more. It erupted on April 13, 1975, after Christian gunmen fired on a bus carrying Palestinian fighters in Beirut. But tension had been building for a while between Lebanese leftists allied to Muslim groups and Christian-dominated groups.
Lebanon then split on largely sectarian lines – but alliances were changing constantly. It dragged in an array of countries including Israel, Syria and the US. The early 1980s saw the rise of Hezbollah after Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, paving the road for the current situation.
Very few people were held accountable during an amnesty that brought the conflict to an end. Many of the main armed groups simply transformed into parliamentary parties.
“There has been no accountability,” Mr Daou added. “The issues remain unresolved, the fears persist and generations are still traumatised by the war. We’ve never done enough to make people feel that the country has learnt from its past.
“The sectarian structure continues to dominate, and we’ve never managed to build a state that provides true security for everyone,” he added, of the civil war's legacy.
Mr Daou cited the devastating 2019 economic crisis in Lebanon, which led to people being locked out of their life savings and the country plunging into a liquidity crisis. Since then, few people have been prosecuted for one of the worst financial collapses in modern times.
“It’s just like the financial crisis – no one was held accountable. It echoes what happened during the civil war: you could become a criminal and still get away with it.”
'More and more sectarian'
A quick scan of the major parties in the confessional parliament highlights the issue. Almost all bear the name of the militia that preceded them during the civil war or are headed by former commanders, their sons or close relatives, and represent one of the array of sects in Lebanon's diverse religious patchwork.
Nabih Berri, the powerful parliamentary speaker for more than 30 years, has headed the Amal Movement for over four decades. His civil war-era ally Walid Joumblatt has taken a step back from frontline politics but his son Teymour now leads the largest Druze bloc in parliament, the Progressive Socialist Party.
“Lebanon is more and more sectarian because of these leaders who are in power,” said Ms Yacoubian. “And they don't have the interest in stopping this game. They want to secure their sectarian base every day. This is their bread and butter.
“They are using today sectarianism and clientelism to stay in power and to keep their sectarian base voting for them and afraid of the other. It's divide and conquer, nothing has changed,” she said.
Mr Daou echoed this, adding: “The majority of political parties are still warlords. The same leaders, the same language, the same framework.”
But it is not only in parliament where sectarianism and patronage holds sway. Ms Yacoubian points to the politicisation and entrenchment of almost all aspects of state and society – from the judiciary to the media to military intelligence.
“They don't want to hear anything about change, they fight change with their teeth,” she said. “This is the game, since the civil war until today. And that's why we have the same families, the same names, the same political parties. They don't change.”
Israel's latest war on Lebanon has reactivated the trauma of many in Lebanon who experienced the civil war. Israel invaded Lebanon last year for the sixth time since 1978 and continues to occupy five positions on the Lebanese border.
Hints of progress
But despite that, there have been hints of change. Ms Yacoubian said bringing about change in Lebanon in the face of the ruling class is a tough battle – but there are signs that it is not impossible.
“I don’t think Lebanon is stuck,” Mr Daou said. “The parties aren’t as important as they once were. The issues have changed completely.
“Even when traditional parties say, ‘We defended you during the war,’ people don’t find that relevant any more. That’s where the shift is happening.
“The warlords are losing their aura and their leadership. They look different now. Even if their sons take over, it’s not the same – they didn’t kill.
“I think we’re moving fast. Socially, people are shifting. What happened with Hezbollah pushed many away from traditional parties, their symbols, and their narratives,” he said.
Syria's Assad regime, which occupied Lebanon until 2005, fell in December and there are indications of a new relationship between the countries moving forward. Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel's war and talks of disarming seem to be on the table for the first time.
There is also optimism about Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun – who has vowed to clamp down on corruption – and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, even if things have not been straightforward.
Both leaders have vowed to uphold the independence of the judiciary and prevent interference in its work, in a country plagued by impunity.
Mr Salam's new cabinet, although formally technocrat and not comprised of members of the traditional parties, is still divided up into players backed by most of the major blocs.
That cabinet agreed by a majority to support Karim Souaid as the country's new central bank chief, despite his backing from the much-derided banking sector and in the face of Mr Salam's disapproval.
“I always have hope and today I have more hope since someone like Nawaf Salam … was able to be Prime Minister,” Ms Yacoubian said of the former chief of the International Court of Justice.
She highlighted the willingness of members of the international community to pressure Lebanon into change, for instance through reforms to the financial sector.
Next year's parliamentary elections are seen as an important litmus test for Lebanon's progress.
“New parties are emerging,” said Mr Daou. “The next elections will be a test of how willing people are to move past the civil war.”
“More than 50 per cent of the electorate today were born after the war – they never fought in it. It’s a new generation. But they’ve inherited their parents’ trauma. That’s why accountability is key.”
