Ahead of the highly anticipated Iran-US talks in Oman, Tehran has warned that any attack by the US or its allies could push Tehran to pursue nuclear weapons, reversing its long-held stance against developing atomic military capabilities.
As tensions in the Middle East escalate and Iran’s nuclear capabilities advance amid a US “maximum pressure” campaign, many in the region and beyond are again forced to consider a long-dreaded question: Is Iran nearing the nuclear threshold, and what can be done to stop it?
Here is a breakdown of the key components of Iran’s nuclear programme and the possible scenarios:
What is Iran’s nuclear programme composed of?
Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is built primarily around uranium enrichment, with the ultimate aim of either fuelling civilian reactors, or, if it chooses, rapidly building nuclear weapons. As of early 2025, Iran is operating at an unprecedented level of activity.
According to experts, Iran runs 36 cascades of IR-1 centrifuges and 42 cascades of advanced machines – IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6 – at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). Another 13 cascades of IR-1 and IR-6 centrifuges are operating at Fordow, a facility buried deep in the mountains. Additional centrifuge arrays are spinning at the Natanz pilot plant.
Although none of Iran’s centrifuges are currently enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level that defines weapons-grade material, it already has a stockpile enriched to 60 per cent, according to the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. With further enrichment, that material could fuel up to eight nuclear warheads.
Moreover, Iran has produced small quantities of uranium metal, a material that can substitute for weapon-grade cores, at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. The institute reported that Iran has “accomplished a considerable amount” of preparatory work for weaponisation.
Where are the main nuclear sites and how are they protected?
Iran’s nuclear facilities are widely dispersed and increasingly fortified against attack.
Natanz, located 225km south of Tehran, is Iran’s flagship enrichment site. According to the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, the centre now includes four tunnels bored into the Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or “Pickaxe Mountain”, providing underground protection against air strikes.
Fordow, a heavily reinforced plant embedded in a mountain near Qom, was a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base whose existence was kept secret until 2009. The institute described it as “already a hardened structure” at that time, built specifically to withstand attack.
Other key centres include Arak, Esfahan and Parchin, the latter of which is a sprawling military research laboratory linked to explosives testing and missile development.
Iran has invested heavily in multi-layered air defence systems to protect these sites. In January, Tehran claimed it shot down a simulated Israeli bunker-buster bomb using a Dey-9 missile, during drills simulating an attack on Natanz. Iran’s air defences include Russian-built TOR systems, and it claims to have modified them to target bombs rather than just aircraft or missiles.
However, aviation experts who spoke to The National stated that these drills probably occurred under test conditions and would not reflect the chaos of actual conflict. They warned that even the successful interception of a bomb does not mean the defence system could survive long enough to engage it during a real-world strike, especially against Israeli electronic warfare and decoy systems.
How close is Iran to building a nuclear weapon?
The most urgent question is whether Iran has crossed the so-called “breakout threshold”.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, Iran could produce enough fissile material for one weapon in a matter of weeks, a drastic shift from the one-year estimate embedded in the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. That deal was designed to provide world powers with reaction time. However, after the US withdrew from it in 2018, Iran gradually ramped up enrichment and restricted inspections. The last full International Atomic Energy Agency inspection occurred in 2021.
Last June, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Iran could now produce weapons-grade material in “one or two weeks”. However, analysts stress that producing fissile material is only the first step. Weaponisation involves building the device, ensuring it works reliably and integrating it into a delivery system. This process could take several more months, particularly if Iran wants to field an initial arsenal, not just a single device.
Can the US or Israel strike Iran’s nuclear centres?
The US and Israel have long maintained that they will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. But mounting an effective strike would be complex and risky.
To effectively neutralise such targets, the US would likely consider using specialised munitions like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bomb capable of penetrating deep into the earth to destroy subterranean centres.
Israel’s most powerful bomb, the GBU-28, is capable of penetrating some bunkers but not deep enough for targets buried under mountains. The much larger GBU-57, the only bomb designed to destroy ultra-hardened targets, requires B-2 or B-1 bombers, which only the US possesses.
Israel has used covert tactics in the past: cyberattacks like Stuxnet in 2010, assassinations of nuclear scientists such as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 and sabotage at Natanz. However, direct strikes on hardened centres like Fordow are another matter.
Even if Israel were to attempt a strike with its F-15I fighter bombers, it would face serious logistical challenges, including the need to refuel mid-air for long-range flights. Iran’s air defences, radar systems and electronic warfare countermeasures would pose further obstacles. Israel might also use stealth F-35s, decoy drones like the ATALD, and HARM missiles to suppress radar. But success is not guaranteed.
How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
The five pillars of Islam
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
JERSEY INFO
Red Jersey
General Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the leader of the General Classification by time.
Green Jersey
Points Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprints.
White Jersey
Young Rider Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the best young rider born after January 1, 1995 in the overall classification by time (U25).
Black Jersey
Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the rider who has gained the most Intermediate Sprint Points.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
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About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
