A military offensive by Yemen's internationally recognised government to take control of a Red Sea port from the Houthi rebels could begin soon, analysts believe. But there has been little assurance that the operation will receive the US backing needed to be successful.
The Iran-backed Houthis took control of Hodeidah in 2021. It is an entry point for humanitarian aid into Yemen and contains oil storage facilities.
After the US renewed air strikes against the Houthis, armed groups supporting the internationally recognised government have been preparing to march into Hodeidah, analysts said. The attacks on the port city have reportedly killed Houthi figures and weakened the group.
About 80,000 soldiers are being mobilised, said Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Gulf Research Centre. The operations are not just planned for Hodeidah port, but the surrounding region known as the “fifth district” in western Yemen, and the Taiz province to the south, said Farea Al Muslimi, a fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London.
The capture of Hodeidah would be the “groundwork” for a takeover of the capital Sanaa, which has been under Houthi control since 2014. “It has always been the case that if Hodeidah goes down then Sanaa is next," said Mr Sager, speaking at the same Chatham House event. "We are at the stage of counting down the end of the Houthis.”
The group seized control of northern Yemen in 2014, sparking a civil war. A Saudi-led coalition intervened at the request of the internationally recognised government.
Since 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, actions the group claims are in solidarity with the people of Gaza. The attacks on international shipping prompted the US strikes.
Post-war concerns
But a push to recapture Hodeidah comes with challenges. US military support is not guaranteed, owing to Washington's “inconsistent” foreign policy on Yemen, Mr Al Muslimi said. “There is a lot of illusion from the Yemeni government that they will be armed by the US or they will be given air cover,” he added.
The US has said it will not become involved in the Yemeni conflict. A Saudi-brokered peace process, which was handed over to the UN last year, has been stalled by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Gen Michael Kurilla of US Central Command met Lt Gen Sagheer Hamoud Ahmed Aziz, Chief of Staff of Yemen’s armed forces this week, and they discussed "ongoing efforts against the Iran-backed Houthis, including the current operation designed to restore freedom of navigation", Centcom said in a statement.
Rather, US decisions on Yemen would most likely be guided by Washington’s “domestic political calculations” and growing isolationism, Mr Al Muslimi said.
A military operation in Hodeidah would be “politically” difficult because it would breach the 2018 UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, he added. This required all parties to the conflict to withdraw from the port city, which the Houthis never did.
Yet there were concerns the internationally recognised government would lack legitimacy in Sanaa and had a limited capacity to govern. Its track record in southern Yemen was plagued by inefficient governance, electricity shortages and rising food prices.
“My honest concern is the next day. If they take Sanaa, what can they deliver to the people that will make them feel that now things are back to normal, there is safety and security, the law is there,” Mr Sager said.
These risks would be amplified by the growing isolation of the US and UK, two of the world's biggest donors to Yemen but that recently decreased foreign aid programmes. “The US is not in the government capacity-building space any more,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Mena programme at Chatham House.
Mr Al Muslimi urged the US and its allies to turn their attention to Yemen’s peace process. “With some updates, it's still possible in the longer term. Yemen has the better chance of a political process, more than Libya, more than Syria."
Creeping Russian interests
A Houthi agreement with Moscow and Beijing to allow their ships to sail through the Bab Al Mandeb strait without being attacked adds further obstacles to a potential offensive on Hodeidah.
It is not known what the terms of the agreement are, but both Russia and China hold veto power at the UN Security Council and there have been Iran-brokered talks for Russia to send advanced anti-ship missiles to the Houthis. There has also been evidence of Houthis recruiting fighters to join the war in Ukraine.
“It is the elephant in the room, a real dark hole,” Mr Al Muslimi said, answering a question from The National, about the potential long-term affects of the Houthi agreement.
With Russia’s hold in Syria weakened by the toppling of former president Bashar Al Assad, Moscow seemed set to shift resources to Yemen. Russian regional experts previously stationed in Damascus were now in Sanaa, Mr Al Muslimi said. “Losing Syria will only make the Russian presence in Yemen stronger,” he added.
Russia’s recent attempts to open an embassy in Aden – the seat of the internationally recognised government – were mired by a request for free movement, which was rejected by the Yemeni side, Mr Sager said. “The government told them you cannot have free movement, because they know there is some sort of linkage, relations and supply happening,” he said.
Likewise, US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China was likely to make Beijing “more generous” in Yemen, Mr Al Muslimi added.
Update: In an earlier version of this article the quotation "We are at the stage of counting down the end of the Houthis" was wrongly attributed to Farea Al Muslimi. As corrected, above, it was made by another speaker who contributed to this article.
