Oman steps in again to mediate between US and Iran

The US and Iran are scheduled to engage in indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman this week, signalling a cautious step toward diplomacy at a time of heightened regional tensions.

At the heart of the renewed diplomatic efforts is Oman, a longtime Gulf intermediary whose quiet but effective diplomacy has helped to bridge divides between adversaries.

President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement on Monday that the US and Iran were set to begin direct talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the discussions would be indirect.

In a further sign of the fragile nature of any breakthrough between the two, Mr Trump said that if the talks were unsuccessful, “Iran is going to be in great danger”.

“We’re having direct talks with Iran, and they’ve started. It’ll go on Saturday. We have a very big meeting, and we’ll see what can happen,” Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Observers said that negotiations between the US and Iran could be a blow to Mr Netanyahu, who has long favoured a hardline approach toward Tehran, including military strikes against its nuclear facilities.

Oman’s mediation role

Last month, Iran responded through Oman to a letter from Mr Trump, in which he urged Tehran to reach a new nuclear deal.

This is not the first time Muscat has mediated between Washington and Tehran. During Mr Trump’s first term, it played a role in trying to dial down tensions after a deadly US drone strike killed Iran’s most senior military commander Qassem Suleimani.

Oman had also facilitated the early negotiations that led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which restricted Iran’s nuclear advances in return for sanctions relief.

Mr Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018. He argued that the deal was flawed and did not address Iran’s ballistic missile programme or regional influence. Following the withdrawal, the US reimposed severe economic sanctions on Iran.

But Muscat appears to remain committed to acting as a diplomatic bridge between Washington and Tehran, working to ease tensions on both nuclear and non-nuclear fronts.

The Gulf state is known for its neutral foreign policy. It maintains amicable relations with both western nations and regional powers, allowing it to act impartially in mediations.

Oman has worked to de-escalate flare-ups in the region, including efforts to release detainees and hostages.

Earlier this year, the Houthi rebels in Yemen said they released the crew of the Galaxy Leader after mediation by Oman, which has long been an interlocutor with the group. The vehicle carrier was seized in November 2023 at the beginning of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping at the start of the Gaza war. Oman had also provided a backchannel between the US and the Houthis, now targeted by US air power almost daily.

The Trump administration has linked its air strikes against the Houthis to a broader pressure campaign against Iran, suggesting that the rebels' missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea serve as a proxy battleground in Washington’s confrontation with Tehran.

The Houthi rebels have been attacking international shipping vessels, including US warships and commercial vessels, since 2023.

Direct vs indirect talks

Iran had resisted Mr Trump’s demands in recent weeks for direct negotiations over its nuclear programme, warning that failure to engage would lead to military action, and it seemed intent on holding firm to that position.

Mr Araghchi posted on X on Tuesday that indirect high-level talks would be held in Oman, adding, “It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America’s court.”

Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s special envoy, is expected to lead the US side, Axios reported. The US and Iran held indirect talks during former president Joe Biden’s term, but they made little if any progress.

The last known direct negotiations between both governments were under president Barack Obama, who lead the 2015 international nuclear deal.

The talks on Saturday aim to explore possible avenues for reining in Iran’s nuclear activities. A report by the UN's nuclear watchdog earlier this year said that Iran had accelerated its production of near weapons-grade uranium. Tehran maintains that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon.

The outcome of the Muscat talks remains uncertain, but despite all the setbacks, Washington and Tehran appear ready to test the waters again – albeit with tempered expectations. Some say Tehran believes that Mr Trump wants to strike a deal and may be both willing and able to offer meaningful sanctions relief to make it happen.