Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, despite UN assessments that Tehran has rapidly increased enrichment of uranium to levels sufficient to build several weapons.
That is the view of the US intelligence community in its Annual Threat Assessment, released on March 25.
“We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that [supreme leader Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so,” the report said.
“In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decision maker over Iran’s nuclear programme,” the document said.
US intelligence community view
The 31-page report represents the joint view of up to 18 US intelligence agencies, from the CIA – the US foreign intelligence service, to the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, which monitors communications, and the National Reconnaissance Office, which operates spy satellites.
It could surprise observers listening to President Donald Trump, who has warned Iran to stop its nuclear research programme or face military consequences.
Israel has long threatened to bomb sites serving Iran's nuclear programme, which it views as developing a bomb, and has sought US assistance for what experts expect would be a days-long campaign of air strikes.
The report was published as Iran revealed more of its vast underground military infrastructure on Tuesday, some dedicated to protecting nuclear facilities from air attack, and some bases dedicated to housing drones and missiles.
Iranian state media showed a video of a subterranean “missile city” being toured by Maj Gen Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who commands the aerospace forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran has shown several similar underground bases in the past, housing drones, attack boats and even fighter aircraft including US-made F-4 Phantoms supplied to the US-backed regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the 1970s.
Warhead challenge
The US assessment makes no estimate of how close Iran might be to a nuclear bomb, if it desired to develop one, only noting that Mr Khamenei is the final decision maker.
Clement Therme, a non-Resident Fellow at the International Institute for Iranian Studies, agrees with the US assessment.
“Since the beginning of the Iranian nuclear file on the international scene in 2002, Iran’s nuclear programme has been primarily about leverage – using its capabilities as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from the West while stopping short of weaponisation,” he said.
“Iran has a history of using nuclear advancements as a pressure tool in negotiations, particularly after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA (2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018.
“At the same time, Iran has accumulated significant technical know-how and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, which shorten its theoretical breakout time. In other words, Iran is a threshold nuclear state: the decision to weaponise or not weaponise is not a technical one but a political one.”
The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran could have material for several bombs if it chose, based on its calculations of Tehran's current stockpile of uranium enriched above 60 per cent. Nuclear bombs require uranium enriched to 90 per cent, but experts say the leap from 60 to 90 per cent enrichment is a minor technicality.
However, nuclear weapons are particularly heavy and it is not clear whether Iran could build a bomb small enough to be carried by a missile, a process known as miniaturisation that is regarded as a tough engineering challenge.
The reliability of an Iranian weapon – whether it would definitely explode if used – is also the subject of scientific speculation.
Most public knowledge about Iran’s weapons programme was released in 2018, when Israeli agents – or people acting on behalf of the Mossad intelligence agency – broke into a warehouse outside Tehran and stole a trove of documents from the nuclear archive.
The documents, analysed and verified by the UN and other experts, detail Iran’s efforts at Parchin, a huge military centre associated with missile research, in particular efforts to compress nuclear material with high implosive force, using shaped explosive charges.
According to the Institute for Science and International Security, the work was conducted in the early 2000s and may have been halted in 2003. The institute said that a document leaked in 2009 suggests that research to develop an “initiator” for a nuclear explosion may have continued.
Since then, experts have only been able to guess as to Iran’s true nuclear ambitions and whether large facilities, many of them inspected by the UN under the 2015 nuclear deal, could be hiding the full extent of its nuclear project.
The institute detailed the complexity of the nuclear detonator research conducted at Parchin in 2019.
“The timing of the explosion and resulting shock waves would need to be near perfect in order to create enough fusion to result in a spurt of neutrons, both in a reliable manner and at exactly the right instant. The experiment itself is very difficult to do,” the institute said.
“Until now, for the sake of the survival of the Iranian political system, the decision of the supreme leader has been not to weaponise Iranian nuclear activities while at the same time increasing its comprehensive nuclear activities and research programme to retain the option to seek nuclear weapons if the political calculus at the top-level decision making process of the Iranian state,” Mr Therme says.
In October last year, sources told US news site Axios that a round of Israeli strikes on Iran had hit facilities for “active” nuclear weapon research, without elaborating.
Despite the assessment that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear bomb, the US intelligence report says “Tehran will try to leverage its robust missile capability and expanded nuclear programme” to pressure the US, Israel and other opponents.
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Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
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Final scores
18 under: Tyrrell Hatton (ENG)
- 14: Jason Scrivener (AUS)
-13: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
-12: Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP)
-11: David Lipsky (USA), Marc Warren (SCO)
-10: Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Chris Paisley (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR)
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Match info
Bournemouth 0
Liverpool 4 (Salah 25', 48', 76', Cook 68' OG)
Man of the match: Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
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Scoreline:
Manchester City 1
Jesus 4'
Brighton 0
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Getting%20there%20
%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Ftravel%2F2023%2F01%2F12%2Fwhat-does-it-take-to-be-cabin-crew-at-one-of-the-worlds-best-airlines-in-2023%2F%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EEtihad%20Airways%20%3C%2Fa%3Eflies%20daily%20to%20the%20Maldives%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%20The%20journey%20takes%20four%20hours%20and%20return%20fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C995.%20Opt%20for%20the%203am%20flight%20and%20you%E2%80%99ll%20land%20at%206am%2C%20giving%20you%20the%20entire%20day%20to%20adjust%20to%20island%20time.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERound%20trip%20speedboat%20transfers%20to%20the%20resort%20are%20bookable%20via%20Anantara%20and%20cost%20%24265%20per%20person.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Mykonos, with a flight change to its partner airline Olympic Air in Athens. Return flights cost from Dh4,105 per person, including taxes.
Where to stay
The modern-art-filled Ambassador hotel (myconianambassador.gr) is 15 minutes outside Mykonos Town on a hillside 500 metres from the Platis Gialos Beach, with a bus into town every 30 minutes (a taxi costs €15 [Dh66]). The Nammos and Scorpios beach clubs are a 10- to 20-minute walk (or water-taxi ride) away. All 70 rooms have a large balcony, many with a Jacuzzi, and of the 15 suites, five have a plunge pool. There’s also a private eight-bedroom villa. Double rooms cost from €240 (Dh1,063) including breakfast, out of season, and from €595 (Dh2,636) in July/August.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Deccan Gladiators 87-8
Asif Khan 25, Dwayne Bravo 2-16
Maratha Arabians 89-2
Chadwick Walton 51 not out
Arabians won the final by eight wickets
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