Donald Trump’s escalated campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, who have revived their Red Sea blockade in protest at Israel’s war in Gaza, could soon face difficult trade offs.
The US President has promised to “annihilate” the “barbarian” group and there have been at least 30 US air strikes against them since Saturday, as well as threats to hold Iran directly responsible for Houthi attacks.
The campaign however, is not the top defence priority for the US.
In January, Mr Trump’s defence secretary Pete Hegseth articulated a long-term goal of Washington, held since the Obama presidency. Mr Hegseth said a key aim was to “deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by communist China”.
This means an ambitious boost to US arms inventories and naval capability for war with a “near peer” – Beijing’s vast armed forces – rather than a militia force like the Houthis or a country such as Iran.
Rearming America
The US arms build-up is happening – factories are being built or expanded, with a focus on stealthy, long-range cruise missiles, in some cases enabled by AI, including ways of cutting costs while maintaining capability.
Old weapons like the Tomahawk missile are being upgraded for naval warfare and new systems focus on building what is known as “mass” or sheer numbers in war.
The Ships Act, meanwhile, seeks to vastly expand US military and commercial ship construction, partly to compete with China’s massive naval build-up.
Many new systems are designed with a focus on fighting across the vast expanse of the Pacific, what US commanders call the “tyranny of distance”. Focus includes anti-ship missiles, which have no use against the Houthis, although they would be important in a war with Iran. Production of air defence interceptors, too, is stepping up.
But many experts warn that the US may not have enough new capability ready in time for a crisis with China. This could make any new entanglement in the Middle East unwelcome, especially one involving Iran. The reason is the astonishing projected defence requirements the US believes it would need to confront China.
Estimates vary as to how much military material the US would need for a Pacific crisis.
US military Pacific command "is concerned about the expenditure of weapons”, says Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian at Campbell University in North Carolina.
“They are also worried about the diversion of ships there and pulling assets. However, not having a secure sea lane through the Red Sea would also have an impact on supporting an operation in the western Pacific. The Houthis (and by that I mean Iran) could shut down the strait if they wanted to with the one weapon not yet used – mines.”
In a full-scale Pacific war focused on Taiwan, the US would expect to fire more than 30,000 precision munitions, a similar number to the total bombs and missiles fired in the 2003 Iraq invasion, according to analysis by Tyler Hacker, a researcher at the US Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
For context, one projection for the advanced Joint Air to Surface Standoff missile inventory by 2026 was 3,600 missiles. The US might have about 4,000 older Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles – exact stockpiles are classified – and is upgrading many of these weapons for an anti-ship role, again less relevant for Middle East clashes. Precision-guided bomb kits called JDAMs are in better shape, with capacity to make tens of thousands a year, but this would be a short-range weapon in a war with China.
Running out of missiles?
Recent US war-games suggest the US might expend 5,000 cruise missiles of various types in the first month of a Pacific war, implying a sustained conflict would empty American arsenals.
This is not the only challenge. Houthi missile attacks on US ships and Washington’s ally Israel might not be particularly effective but would still require expensive interceptor missiles to fend off. In a war with China, the US would need many thousands of these missiles to protect critical bases, such as Guam, and allies like Japan. Washington is struggling to increase production of ballistic missile defences.
Experts say that in the short term, the US Navy could sustain a significant campaign against the Iran-backed movement, including using extremely long-range strikes by the US Air Force and ally Britain, after launching more than 200 strikes on the Houthis in the first part of the campaign, causing a dip in attacks in the Red Sea, but failing to restore the confidence of shipping companies using the route.
A long campaign against the Houthis, however, could drain costly missile air defence inventories, based on the first crisis from November 2023 onwards, when the US deployed warships to the Red Sea, to the end of the first Houthi campaign in January. The US fired 155 Standard Missiles and numerous other air defence weapons, at a cost of nearly $2 billion.
Experts previously told The National this would not be a huge short-term problem because stockpiles built up over the years number in the thousands. But the longer a war drags on – especially if Iran becomes directly involved – the more stockpiles are drained.
Freedom of the seas
“I don't think the US strikes are meant to deter the Houthis,” Mr Mercogliano says. "Their goal appears to be twofold. One, to leverage the Iranians to pull their support. President Trump has leverage with OFAC [Office of Foreign Assets Control] sanctions against Iranian tankers, which can be ended. Second, it is to convince the insurance companies to lower the war risk insurance for ships to resume their voyages. This is what is keeping ships from sailing through the Red Sea."
Mr Mercogliano adds: “President Trump just had the owner of [French shipping giant] CMA CGM at the White House, who is talking about flagging 20 ships into the US registry. Mediterranean Shipping Company is also working with BlackRock to buy CK Hutchinson ports. So these strikes appear to me to be more commercial in objective than military.”
For now, Washington can continue naval operations despite fears of some US commanders that the navy is seriously overstretched. The navy, one officer wrote in analysis for the US Naval Institute, is torn between “commitments to allies, training certifications, readiness requirements and off-the-cuff deployments to the Middle East”.
This had, he said, piled up endless maintenance, meaning fewer ships are ready for war while China continues rapid naval expansion. Mohammad Basha, of the Basha Report consultancy in Virginia, tells The National that these challenges will not impact the counter-Houthi campaign in the short term.
“The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group has demonstrated the capability to sustain extended operations. During its 2007-08 deployment, the Carrier Strike Group operated for approximately seven months, conducting missions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Maritime Security Operations,” he says, adding that planes from the ship conducted “2,459 combat sorties”.
“Currently, the USS Harry S. Truman is positioned west of Jeddah, with daily supply flights from Bahrain, home of the US 5th Fleet, supporting its operations.” Mr Basha says a campaign of similar duration can be expected against the Houthis from this carrier force, led by a commander who knows the campaign intimately.
“Captain Chris ‘Chowdah’ Hill, previously the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), has been appointed as the interim commanding officer of the USS Harry S. Truman,” he says.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower spent nine months in the Red Sea at the start of the crisis, described as one of the most intense naval deployments by the US military for decades.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
NYBL PROFILE
Company name: Nybl
Date started: November 2018
Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence
Initial investment: $500,000
Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)
Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
SPECS
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Meydan card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (PA) Group 1 US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) Group 2 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20profile
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HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Aguero 1', 44', 61'
Arsenal 1
Koscielny 11'
Man of the match: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Specs
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