Donald Trump’s escalated campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, who have revived their Red Sea blockade in protest at Israel’s war in Gaza, could soon face difficult trade offs.
The US President has promised to “annihilate” the “barbarian” group and there have been at least 30 US air strikes against them since Saturday, as well as threats to hold Iran directly responsible for Houthi attacks.
The campaign however, is not the top defence priority for the US.
In January, Mr Trump’s defence secretary Pete Hegseth articulated a long-term goal of Washington, held since the Obama presidency. Mr Hegseth said a key aim was to “deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by communist China”.
This means an ambitious boost to US arms inventories and naval capability for war with a “near peer” – Beijing’s vast armed forces – rather than a militia force like the Houthis or a country such as Iran.
Rearming America
The US arms build-up is happening – factories are being built or expanded, with a focus on stealthy, long-range cruise missiles, in some cases enabled by AI, including ways of cutting costs while maintaining capability.
Old weapons like the Tomahawk missile are being upgraded for naval warfare and new systems focus on building what is known as “mass” or sheer numbers in war.
The Ships Act, meanwhile, seeks to vastly expand US military and commercial ship construction, partly to compete with China’s massive naval build-up.
Many new systems are designed with a focus on fighting across the vast expanse of the Pacific, what US commanders call the “tyranny of distance”. Focus includes anti-ship missiles, which have no use against the Houthis, although they would be important in a war with Iran. Production of air defence interceptors, too, is stepping up.
But many experts warn that the US may not have enough new capability ready in time for a crisis with China. This could make any new entanglement in the Middle East unwelcome, especially one involving Iran. The reason is the astonishing projected defence requirements the US believes it would need to confront China.
Estimates vary as to how much military material the US would need for a Pacific crisis.
US military Pacific command "is concerned about the expenditure of weapons”, says Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian at Campbell University in North Carolina.
“They are also worried about the diversion of ships there and pulling assets. However, not having a secure sea lane through the Red Sea would also have an impact on supporting an operation in the western Pacific. The Houthis (and by that I mean Iran) could shut down the strait if they wanted to with the one weapon not yet used – mines.”
In a full-scale Pacific war focused on Taiwan, the US would expect to fire more than 30,000 precision munitions, a similar number to the total bombs and missiles fired in the 2003 Iraq invasion, according to analysis by Tyler Hacker, a researcher at the US Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
For context, one projection for the advanced Joint Air to Surface Standoff missile inventory by 2026 was 3,600 missiles. The US might have about 4,000 older Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles – exact stockpiles are classified – and is upgrading many of these weapons for an anti-ship role, again less relevant for Middle East clashes. Precision-guided bomb kits called JDAMs are in better shape, with capacity to make tens of thousands a year, but this would be a short-range weapon in a war with China.
Running out of missiles?
Recent US war-games suggest the US might expend 5,000 cruise missiles of various types in the first month of a Pacific war, implying a sustained conflict would empty American arsenals.
This is not the only challenge. Houthi missile attacks on US ships and Washington’s ally Israel might not be particularly effective but would still require expensive interceptor missiles to fend off. In a war with China, the US would need many thousands of these missiles to protect critical bases, such as Guam, and allies like Japan. Washington is struggling to increase production of ballistic missile defences.
Experts say that in the short term, the US Navy could sustain a significant campaign against the Iran-backed movement, including using extremely long-range strikes by the US Air Force and ally Britain, after launching more than 200 strikes on the Houthis in the first part of the campaign, causing a dip in attacks in the Red Sea, but failing to restore the confidence of shipping companies using the route.
A long campaign against the Houthis, however, could drain costly missile air defence inventories, based on the first crisis from November 2023 onwards, when the US deployed warships to the Red Sea, to the end of the first Houthi campaign in January. The US fired 155 Standard Missiles and numerous other air defence weapons, at a cost of nearly $2 billion.
Experts previously told The National this would not be a huge short-term problem because stockpiles built up over the years number in the thousands. But the longer a war drags on – especially if Iran becomes directly involved – the more stockpiles are drained.
Freedom of the seas
“I don't think the US strikes are meant to deter the Houthis,” Mr Mercogliano says. "Their goal appears to be twofold. One, to leverage the Iranians to pull their support. President Trump has leverage with OFAC [Office of Foreign Assets Control] sanctions against Iranian tankers, which can be ended. Second, it is to convince the insurance companies to lower the war risk insurance for ships to resume their voyages. This is what is keeping ships from sailing through the Red Sea."
Mr Mercogliano adds: “President Trump just had the owner of [French shipping giant] CMA CGM at the White House, who is talking about flagging 20 ships into the US registry. Mediterranean Shipping Company is also working with BlackRock to buy CK Hutchinson ports. So these strikes appear to me to be more commercial in objective than military.”
For now, Washington can continue naval operations despite fears of some US commanders that the navy is seriously overstretched. The navy, one officer wrote in analysis for the US Naval Institute, is torn between “commitments to allies, training certifications, readiness requirements and off-the-cuff deployments to the Middle East”.
This had, he said, piled up endless maintenance, meaning fewer ships are ready for war while China continues rapid naval expansion. Mohammad Basha, of the Basha Report consultancy in Virginia, tells The National that these challenges will not impact the counter-Houthi campaign in the short term.
“The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group has demonstrated the capability to sustain extended operations. During its 2007-08 deployment, the Carrier Strike Group operated for approximately seven months, conducting missions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Maritime Security Operations,” he says, adding that planes from the ship conducted “2,459 combat sorties”.
“Currently, the USS Harry S. Truman is positioned west of Jeddah, with daily supply flights from Bahrain, home of the US 5th Fleet, supporting its operations.” Mr Basha says a campaign of similar duration can be expected against the Houthis from this carrier force, led by a commander who knows the campaign intimately.
“Captain Chris ‘Chowdah’ Hill, previously the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), has been appointed as the interim commanding officer of the USS Harry S. Truman,” he says.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower spent nine months in the Red Sea at the start of the crisis, described as one of the most intense naval deployments by the US military for decades.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
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Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Uefa Nations League A Group 4
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
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1. Fasting
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- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
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Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
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Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
MATCH INFO
Iceland 0 England 1 (Sterling pen 90 1)
Man of the match Kari Arnason (Iceland)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
