Iran could be on a collision course with US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Mr Trump to “do whatever damn thing” he wants, rejecting negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Experts fear Israel is planning to strike Iran's nuclear centres this year and is seeking US support, even if only logistical, for the attack. Mr Trump has said that while he prefers negotiations, Iran's extensive nuclear research and uranium enrichment programme could be dealt with “militarily”.
“It's not acceptable for them to say, 'we're ordering you not to do this, and not to do that, or we'll do this,'” Mr Pezeshkian said during a meeting with Iranian entrepreneurs on Tuesday, according to state media. “When you threaten me, I don't want to negotiate with you.”
Previously, Tehran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and ambassador to the UN Amir Saeed Iravani also insisted talks on a nuclear deal with the US are not on the table.
On Tuesday, France, Greece, Panama, South Korea, Britain and the US called a UN Security Council meeting to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. The UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned Iran is making strides towards being able to weaponise stockpiles of enriched uranium.
At the weekend, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, dismissed US calls for discussions over the nuclear programme as “bullying”. Mr Araghchi said that instead of seeking compromise with the US over nuclear research, which the US insists is for military purposes, Iran was “consulting with the E3 – and separately with Russia and China”.
The E3 comprises Britain, France and Germany, a group of countries initially dedicated to trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers under which sanctions on Iran were lifted in exchange for Tehran curbing its nuclear programme.
Iran agreed to a now withered UN inspections regime of its nuclear infrastructure but relations between Tehran and the IAEA quickly soured amid allegations Iran was withholding information.
The first Trump presidency backed away from the agreement, claiming it allowed Iran too much leeway to restart a military nuclear programme at a future date.
The US in 2018 imposed a sanctions campaign that slashed Iran’s oil exports by about 80 per cent by late 2020, causing serious economic damage. Mr Trump has revived that policy, which was weakened under the administration of former US president Joe Biden due to a rise in Iranian oil smuggling.
Early moves by Mr Trump against Iran include a wide range of sanctions on its so-called “shadow fleet” of crude-smuggling vessels and last week Washington was said to be looking into counter oil-smuggling operations at sea.
The maximum pressure gamble
“The United States' intensified ‘maximum pressure’ campaign through sanctions on Iran is likely to strengthen hardliners within Tehran,” said Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Rane Risk Intelligence. “This shift in the domestic power dynamic could further diminish prospects for diplomatic engagement and increase Tehran’s resolve to resist external pressure.”
“As hardliners consolidate their influence, there is an increased probability that Iran will escalate its nuclear hedging strategy,” Mr Khoueiry warned. “The growing perception among the hardliners that a nuclear deterrent is essential – both against the US and Israel – could accelerate Iran’s pursuit of weapons-grade capabilities. This scenario raises the risk of further escalation, particularly as diplomatic off-ramps become increasingly limited.”
It is not clear how a separate talks process – perhaps with the EU and Russia and excluding the US – could succeed. In December, the EU warned that Iran must “immediately halt its nuclear escalation” and France’s President Emanuel Macron has said Europe is ready to take tougher measures against Tehran.
The UK and Europe have already joined the US in increasing sanctions on Iran, targeting shipping and aviation, among other sectors, saying their measures punish the regime for its intervention in the Ukraine war – Tehran has sent thousands of drones to Russia and helped Moscow set up mass domestic production of the weapons.
France is also leading a campaign in the EU for the bloc to designate the powerful wing of Iran’s armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a terrorist group.
Experts fear both Israel and Iran are already moving much faster towards confrontation than Europe or Iran’s allies Russia and China are working towards a diplomatic solution.
On the Iranian side, defence preparations have been almost non-stop, with boosted aerial drone fleets, reorganised air defences – after Israel seriously damaged them in October – and regular drills. Iran, too, has been taking delivery of missile fuel from China, thought to be replenishment for expended stocks in intense attacks on Israel in April and October.
On the Israeli side, there is believed to be an understanding that Iran’s nuclear programme may be weeks away from a bomb, which many experts believe.
“Israel, perceiving Iran as strategically vulnerable and emboldened by both US support under the Trump administration and its own long-standing commitment to preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, is increasingly likely to take pre-emptive military action,” Mr Khoueiry said. “Such a strike would almost certainly provoke direct Iranian retaliation.
“That could trigger broader regional security risks, including escalated Houthi attacks on shipping lanes and potential strikes on Gulf states, particularly if the US is perceived as complicit by using its bases in the Gulf for any military action against Tehran.”
According to analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran could already create enough highly enriched uranium for at least five nuclear bombs a month in an accelerated enrichment campaign.
IAEA estimates, on which the analysis is based, say Iran already has enough for five bombs, if it chose to enrich from 60 per cent to 90 per cent purity.
Israel may also be reluctant to delay strikes on Iran’s centres in the knowledge that Tehran is rebuilding air defences, albeit in limited form compared to last year, after losing hard-to-replace systems.
According to one US official speaking off record to Israeli media, an American strike force would need two days of sustained bombing to significantly damage Iran’s nuclear sites, meaning an Israeli campaign would face huge challenges merely to delay Tehran’s weapons programme.
“An alternative risk scenario exists,” Mr Khoueiry said. “Even in the event of an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough leading to a new agreement, Israel may seek to sabotage negotiations by launching strikes against Iran regardless. Given these converging factors, the risk of military escalation over the coming months and into next year remains significantly high.”
