What challenges are Arab states facing in Gaza reconstruction bid?

Next week's Arab summit is expected to adopt an Arab plan for the reconstruction of war-battered Gaza that leaders of the Arab League's 22 member states hope will dissuade US President Donald Trump from pursuing his almost universally condemned vision for the enclave's future.

But even if the American President is persuaded to stand aside and let others take the lead on Gaza's future, implementing the Arab plan will be fraught with serious challenges, some of which may be extremely difficult to overcome, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Mr Trump's vision envisages the resettlement of Gaza's 2.3 million residents in Egypt and Jordan before the US takes over the coastal strip and turns it into the "Riviera of the Middle East". It's a proposal that international rights groups see as ethnic cleansing – a war crime. Arabs see it as an attempt to hollow out the Palestinian cause, support for which has over the years become part of the Arab identity.

In contrast, the proposed Arab plan, which is rooted in an Egyptian blueprint, talks about the Palestinians moving to safe zones inside Gaza while reconstruction is under way, a scenario they see as befitting for a people who have sustained more than 48,000 deaths, mostly women and children, during the 15-month Hamas-Israel war triggered by the militant group's October 2023 attack on southern Israel. But challenges may lay ahead.

Keeping the ceasefire alive

The six-week Gaza ceasefire mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the US expires on Saturday. Neither Hamas nor Israel have said what comes next. The truce is part of the deal's first phase, which also includes the release of 33 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for about 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.

The second phase provides for negotiations on a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. They should have started earlier this month, but are yet to begin, and Israel is now talking about extending the first phase. The sources see Israel's position as largely a reflection of its reluctance to leave Gaza without first eradicating Hamas's entire military and governing capabilities.

Hamas, on the other hand, has yet to respond to Israel's desire to extend the first phase. It has said it is ready to negotiate the second phase, under which it is obliged to release the remaining 59 hostages in return for the freedom of thousands more Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas has long aired its fear that Israel will resume military operations in Gaza when all the hostages are freed, a scenario propagated by some members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

What next for Hamas?

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, has stated its readiness to stay out of the reconstruction process as well as any interim administration in the strip. But, according to the sources, the group has made it clear to Egyptian and Qatari mediators it will not surrender its weapons or relinquish its role as a "legitimate resistance" movement against Israeli occupation, a position they said would not be acceptable to Israel or the Trump administration.

That position, said the sources, will also give Israel the pretext it needs to resume its bombardment of Gaza when and if all the hostages are released. President Trump has already said his administration will stand behind any course of action Israel takes following the expiry this weekend of the six-week ceasefire.

It is difficult to see how Hamas could be entirely removed from the scene in Gaza, said Michael Hanna, a New York-based Middle East expert.

"I don't see anything that could effectively and entirely remove Hamas from the scene. That Israel and the Trump administration are insisting on that is unrealistic," he said. "Weakened, yes, but Hamas remains the most dominant force in Gaza," added Mr Hanna, director of the US programme in International Crisis Group, a global think tank.

The idea of forming a pan-Arab force to ensure security in Gaza has frequently been floated as a compromise, but, say the sources, potential contributors are reluctant to participate due to the risk of clashing with Hamas. At any rate, said the sources, Hamas's approval of the deployment of such a force is virtually a prerequisite.

Mr Hanna said Egypt believes that a revival of the long-dormant Palestinian-Israeli peace process with a two-state solution – an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza peacefully existing alongside Israel – as its ultimate objective would cause Hamas to gradually lose relevance and eventually disappear.

"That long-term plan will not work for the Trump administration. It wants changes on the ground and very soon," he said.

How to fund reconstruction

The UN estimates the cost of rebuilding Gaza will be around $50 billion. A significant amount of the funding is expected to come from Gulf Arab nations, the EU and other multinational lenders like the World Bank, but none of this is certain. Egypt, which borders Gaza and Israel, plans to host an international donor conference to raise funds for the reconstruction of Gaza shortly after the March 4 Arab summit, a proposal that is expected to receive warm support from next Tuesday's Arab summit.

Who exactly will be in charge of the disbursement of the funds and expenditure has yet to be finalised, but Gulf Arab donors, according to the sources, are insisting on a mechanism that ensures total transparency.

The Palestinian Authority wants to be in charge of the process, but most potential donors are reluctant to hand it control of the reconstruction purse strings before the authority shows itself to be embracing effective anti-corruption reforms.

Unhappy with the apparent attempts to marginalise his government and eager to take over Gaza from Hamas, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has not heeded repeated calls made behind closed doors to issue a decree establishing a committee of independent technocrats to run the day-to-day affairs of Gaza, according to the sources. The proposed committee would also have a technical say on the reconstruction.