Last year, Israel found itself engaged in military conflicts on a number of fronts.
This was triggered by the unprecedented Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies, and led Israel to declare war on Gaza. The ensuing military campaign has killed more than 48,300 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and left the enclave in ruins.
There were two large-scale Middle East wars in 2024. The Israel-Hamas conflict prompted Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, to launch cross-border attacks on northern Israel – which escalated into an all-out war. The region also witnessed, for the first time, direct military strikes between Israel and Iran after years of shadow warfare.
Although ceasefires were reached in Lebanon and Gaza in late 2024 and early this year, respectively, Israel has, once again, intensified its military operations in the region. This time, however, it appears to hold the upper hand. Hezbollah and Hamas have been significantly weakened militarily after more than a year of war with Israel. The toppling of the regime of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad in December marked a break in the chain of Iran’s regional influence.
Syria's new leadership is pursuing a policy of regional non-aggression, and Iran seems to be opting for covert operations and strategic posturing rather than open confrontation.
This comes one month after the return of US President Donald Trump to office. Mr Trump, one of Israel’s most supportive White House incumbents, took several actions during his first term that bolstered the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His second term appears no different.
Early this month, Mr Trump proposed relocating Gaza's population to neighbouring countries so that the Strip could be rebuilt as a US-run “Riviera of the Middle East”. While the proposal sparked condemnation among Arab states and in much of Europe, Mr Netanyahu praised it. For many, the endorsement marked a shift, as the concept of population transfer, long considered taboo, was embraced by the Israeli prime minister.
There is a growing sense that Mr Netanyahu might feel confident he has the backing of Washington for his aggressive policies in Gaza and beyond, and may feel emboldened to push forward his security and territorial objectives under the second Trump administration.
“Israel is benefiting from this very strong alignment between its government and the current US administration,” Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute in Florida, told The National. “Unlike the previous administration, which sought to act as a mediator and, to some extent, a neutral third party, the current administration – under President Trump – has largely defined its policies in alignment with Israel. While it remains interested in mediation, it does so primarily as a supporter of Israel.”
Gaza and the West Bank
One month ago, both Israelis and Palestinians experienced a rare moment of optimism, as it seemed a path towards ending the war was finally in sight. However, the fragile truce between Israel and Hamas has since stumbled from crisis to crisis.
The 42-day ceasefire is set to expire this weekend unless an agreement is reached for an extension. Talks on a permanent resolution, originally scheduled to begin in early February, have yet to start. While Hamas said on Thursday it was ready to begin negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire after several hundred Palestinians were released from Israeli jails overnight in return for the bodies of four Israeli hostages, the mood in Israel appears to be different.
“Israel is now focused on extending the first phase of the Gaza deal, rather than engaging in tough second-phase negotiations on issues like withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and a permanent end to the war,” sources familiar with the talks told The National.
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Thursday an Israeli delegation will go to Cairo to see if there is common ground to continue ceasefire negotiations.
In the West Bank, Palestinians fear Israel is planning to annex the occupied territory by force. Israel sent in tanks for the first time in more than 20 years and its forces have expanded operations in refugee camps, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands of Palestinians, as militant groups in Jenin and Tulkarm are being targeted. The UN's humanitarian agency, OCHA, said the military offensive there “appears to exceed law enforcement standards” and has had severe consequences.
Mr Trump this month refused to guarantee that Israel would not annex the West Bank when asked about the issue after his meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House.
“I believe Israel’s preference is to establish a military or no-man’s zone as a newly created buffer between itself and what it perceives as hostile territories,” said Mr Mahmoudian. “However, it remains unclear whether Israel will necessarily be able to fully implement this preference. There is a possibility that, in the context of broader negotiations over Gaza’s future and Israel’s efforts to normalise relations with Arab states, it may find itself in a position where it has to compromise on some of these objectives.”
Arab leaders will meet in Cairo next week to counter Mr Trump’s plan for Gaza. Sources familiar with Cairo's diplomatic campaign and a senior Arab diplomat told The National that Egypt's effort is driven by its firm belief in the gravity of the situation in Gaza and that the March 4 summit can have an enduring impact on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Lebanon and Syria
Despite the truce between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese authorities have reported hundreds of breaches of airspace by Israel. On Wednesday morning, Israeli drones flew over Beirut and its suburbs, with residents hearing loud buzzing overhead.
Israel has also continued to sporadically bomb areas in the country, claiming it is targeting Hezbollah for violations of the ceasefire. Air strikes have mainly targeted southern and eastern Lebanon.
There are fears there could be an “indefinite” Israeli war against Hezbollah. Senior Lebanese politicians have previously told The National that if the goal is to “eradicate” the group, it would take time to achieve.
Israeli troops remain stationed at five key points in south Lebanon, despite their scheduled withdrawal on February 18. Lebanon has been calling for international intervention to enforce a full Israeli pullout.
Hezbollah held an elaborate funeral for its former leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Sunday, nearly five months after he was killed in an Israeli air strike. The group is now grappling with a decapitated leadership, a weakened fighting force and a heavily infiltrated security apparatus.
Its political bloc has backed Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government, which, in a ministerial statement ahead of a confidence vote, pledged to establish a state monopoly on arms and uphold the country's neutrality.
Israeli warplanes have also carried out air strikes on military targets outside Damascus and in southern Syria this week, as Israeli officials warned the Syrian forces not to move south of the capital city.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon”. This came after Mr Netanyahu demanded the complete demilitarisation of southern Syria.
Shortly after the fall of Mr Al Assad, Israel pushed through a buffer zone between the occupied Golan Heights and southern Syria, establishing military positions inside a UN-monitored demilitarised zone. Israeli forces have remained there since, despite protests by Syria’s new government and the UN.
“Israel sees an opportunity to expand its influence in Syria, strengthen its leverage over the emerging post-Assad order and shape the country’s internal dynamics,” Ibrahim Al Assil, senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, told The National. “There have been no signs of aggression from the new authority in Damascus towards Israel; on the contrary, Syria’s interim President Ahmad Al Shara has emphasised the country’s commitment to peaceful foreign relations and the prioritisation of national reconstruction, with a military focused on internal security and territorial integrity.”
Mr Al Assil believes Syria’s new leadership is neither willing nor capable of responding militarily to Israel. “Al Shara may, instead, seek diplomatic backing from Arab nations at the upcoming emergency Arab League summit in Egypt in a few days. Aligning Syria’s position with a broader Arab consensus would enhance its legitimacy and reinforce Al Shara’s credibility within the region,” he said.
