Israeli experts see potential in the chaos of Trump's first month back

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza US President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through his country and abroad, not least in the Middle East, in the first month of his second term as he has launched headlong into a bold and often controversial policy agenda. Israel , among the US’s closest allies, is one of the few places that has overwhelmingly welcomed the new president across the political spectrum. Ultranationalist and religious ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government heralded his arrival as a divine miracle. Leading centrist opposition politicians said it was a moment to pursue major regional diplomatic initiatives in their country’s favour, including containing arch enemy Iran and normalising ties with Saudi Arabia. The National spoke to Israeli security and policy experts to see what they think Mr Trump's first month portends for the country, where the focus of the past month has been the fragile Gaza ceasefire with Hamas. Former Israeli ambassador to the US and deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon was optimistic about Mr Trump's second term. “I believe that when it comes to foreign affairs, especially the Middle East and Israel, we see a much more experienced and seasoned president than he was in his first term,” he said. “I think that this time, he has very coherent views and objectives and also has a very tight crew who see the same way as he does. So in that respect, he would like to finish what he started in the first term, particularly regarding the Abraham Accords.” The 2020 US-brokered accords established diplomatic ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, but Mr Trump also wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish relations. Tamir Hayman, executive director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies and former head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate, described the Trump administration's first month as “very disruptive”. “It seems all of the basic assumptions regarding the geopolitical solutions in the Middle East have suffered enormous disruption that could spiral things out of control if not channelled correctly, not just in Israel but across the Middle East,” Mr Hayman said. However, if managed in the right manner, there could be a “new energy boost in the region from the disruption. "There is no plan, only vision, momentum and energy, and we need to navigate it," he said. “The good news is Saudi Arabia,” he added. “It seems like it is the most important state in the Middle East for President Trump. It seems like he is eager and willing to create a new form of relationship between Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia.” All the experts The National spoke to agreed that one of the most complex issues facing the new administration is achieving a degree of calm in the Israel-Palestine conflict , which has been in a state of deadly and intractable escalation since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, which triggered the Gaza war. “When it comes to Palestinians, as usual, this is the most complicated issue when it comes to the details,” Mr Ayalon said. Talking about Mr Trump’s repeated desire to see Gazans removed from the strip to allow for reconstruction, with no apparent right of return afterwards, Mr Ayalon said it was a “very far-reaching, out-of-the box plan” that has spurred Arab states to come up with their own proposals. “I would say he's really rocking the boat, and I think in a good way,” he said. “If this chaos is instrumental, so be it.” Lianne Pollak-David, a former member of Israeli teams negotiating with Palestinians and co-founder of the new Coalition for Regional Security, which includes more than 100 senior Israeli figures that seek to enhance Israel's security by advancing a regional deal, was keen to hear new solutions proposed by Arab states. She said that while the relocation of Gazans willing to leave the strip should be an option in the future, Israel needs to “realise that the vast majority of the Gazans are not willing and that nobody is going to force them out". “For that vast majority of Gazans, we need to find practical solutions, and we all are very much looking forward to hearing what will come out of the Arab League meeting expected in the beginning of March,” she said. All three experts said Mr Trump’s single-mindedness could create difficulties for Mr Netanyahu, who leads a coalition with many ministers deeply opposed to any settlement with Palestinians, who want Israel to continue the Gaza war and to seize the moment to settle more Palestinian land. Mr Hayman said the US President was likely to pursue his aims regardless of the domestic fallout in Israel. “I think he has only one goal: that he is the one who will bring peace to the Middle East by ensuring stability,” he said. “He’s in search of the shortest route to that vision. If the shortest route crosses the interests of ultra-right or ultra-left in Israel it doesn't really get into his calculations. He can run over the right wing if he wants to strike a deal with Saudi Arabia. “Let’s take another example. He viewed the truce [between Israel and Hamas] as the shortest way to reach some form of stability in Gaza. If he can be convinced that the [upcoming] second phase of the deal will prolong that achievement then he will increase the pressure on Israel to make more concessions to achieve the second phase. It doesn’t matter to him that it contradicts [his far-right finance minister] Bezalel Smotrich and [National Security Minister] Itamar Ben-Gvir. He trusts Netanyahu as a shrewd politician to manage that.” Ms Pollak-David said that given Mr Trump’s ambitions for a new regional order, “it may be that the way the Israeli political coalition is arranged today may have to change”. “The problem right now that we have in Israel is that the current political coalition simply does not represent the sentiment of the vast majority of the public. All the polls are showing it … this is the tragedy that we have at the moment.” Mr Hayman hoped that Israel would take seriously any initiatives put forward by the Arab world to reach a settlement if it wants to secure a new, transformative regional order. “If there’s something that I’ve learnt to appreciate after October 7, it’s declarations by Arab leaders. We’ve come to learn that statements are important in the Arab world. If someone declares his vision and main interest, he probably means it,” he said. “From the beginning of the war, if you’ve been hearing and listening to what [Saudi Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Salman is saying, he is escalating his demands on the Palestinian component in future Israeli normalisation. He is urging a state. He is not speaking for a general vision or horizon for two states." Mr Hayman called on Israel’s leadership to make sure the country keeps abreast of Mr Trump’s agenda. "To do that, make sure that our visions are aligned, and secondly, get a common assessment of the situation with the people in the inner circle that surround Trump,” he said.

Israeli experts see potential in the chaos of Trump's first month back

US President's stance on key Middle East issues, including the Gaza war, creates space for new regional order, experts say