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Lebanon's decision to indefinitely suspend flights to and from Iran on Tuesday will not significantly impact Hezbollah's supply network with Tehran, a political source close to the group and analysts have told The National.
“The Iranians have developed many intertwined means to support their allies in Lebanon and the region, and are not limited to carrying money directly to them. They can overcome obstacles placed in their way, such as restrictions on Iranian aviation,” the source said, dismissing claims that Iranian planes are transporting all of Hezbollah's funds as “exaggerations”.
The ban, which came after Israel's military accused Tehran of using civilian planes to smuggle cash to arm the Lebanese militant group, could temporarily affect rearmament and the reconstruction effort in southern Lebanon, where residents complain of delays to compensation payments.
But Hezbollah, which is part of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”, may be able to rely on Iran's developed and diversified support network with its proxies.
“Yemen is more distant and geographically complex, and has been under siege for years, including its ports and coasts during the war about 10 years ago, but Iranian expertise has remained able to circumvent obstacles, including sending military equipment and capabilities,” the political source said.
Unofficial talks are continuing, they said, regarding different forms of making deals, including cryptocurrencies and precious metals.
Israeli threats
Last week, Lebanese authorities blocked a plane from Iran from landing in Lebanon. A Lebanese security source said Israel had warned Lebanon it would strike Beirut airport if the Iranian aircraft landed, AFP reported.
A day earlier, Avichay Adraee, the Israeli military's spokesperson, accused Iran’s IRGC Quds Force and Hezbollah of using Beirut airport to “smuggle funds allocated to arm Hezbollah with the aim of carrying out attacks against the State of Israel”.
The move sparked days of violent protests by Hezbollah supporters near the airport, including one incident in which a peacekeeping vehicle was set on fire and the outgoing deputy commander of the force and a Nepalese soldier were injured. Hezbollah urged the Lebanese government to reverse the decision, calling it “compliance with the enemy’s dictates”, in reference to Israel.
Political analyst Karim El Mufti told The National that the ban was “primarily a political move” from Lebanon's new government.
Despite the protests, Lebanese authorities on Tuesday extended the ban to all Iranian flights without specifying how long the measure would remain in place.
Iran has long been accused of providing funding and weapons to Hezbollah, mainly through the porous Lebanon-Syria border. But the fall of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad’s regime in a lightning offensive in December deprived the group of a key ally and disrupted traditional supply routes, reportedly increasing the importance of Beirut airport as an alternative.
Hezbollah, once considered one of the world's most heavily armed groups, is in urgent need of funding to rebuild its forces. Months of heavy cross-border fighting with Israel, which Israel escalated into a full-scale war mid-September, have dealt a significant blow to the group.
During the war, the Israeli military eliminated much of the Hezbollah's top leadership, destroying infrastructure and targeting its arsenal.
The challenge it faces is not only military. The group provides extensive social services to its supporters, including education, health care, and subsidised goods. It has also offered financial aid to some of the estimated 1.2 million people displaced during the war, including rent assistance and allowances of up to $300, according to residents in southern Lebanon, regardless of their affiliation with Hezbollah.
It also pledged to compensate those affected by the conflict and to help rebuild villages devastated by months of war with Israel, through its NGO, Jihad al Bina.
But on the ground, residents in southern Lebanon told The National that promised compensation had been delayed. Some people said they received cheques for housing and furniture, worth around $8,000, but payment has been pushed to March, months after the ceasefire took effect on November 27.
“For now, only God has compensated us. We haven't received anything from the state or Hezbollah,” said a resident of the border village of Dhayra.
Political issue
If Israel's systematic targeting of Hezbollah's supply routes and funding sources has added pressure on the group, it remains far from being able to suffocate it.
“Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to provide social welfare and support reconstruction in 2006,” Mr El Mufti said, referring to the previous war between the group and Israel. “They will do it again.”
Hezbollah has also previously shown resourcefulness in bypassing sanctions, he said. He added that the group maintains extensive ties in Latin America and West Africa, which also provide cash for the group.
“I don't believe Hezbollah has to worry about its ability to secure funding sources. The battle for them is now more political than financial.”
After more than two years of political stalemate, Hezbollah's weakening has paved the way for the election of former army chief Joseph Aoun as President, widely seen as Washington's favoured candidate, and the formation of a new government led by Nawaf Salam.
“From Hezbollah’s perspective, Lebanese sovereignty is now shaped by US and Israeli interests. In this sense, the Lebanese government's decision to ban Iranian flights was largely symbolic,” Mr El Mufti said. “Hezbollah no longer has the power to set red lines, but it is far from defeated. This will remain a source of tension in Lebanon's political scene.”
