Middle East at a crossroads: peace or conflict?


Vanessa Ghanem
  • English
  • Arabic

One month into President Donald Trump’s second term, the Middle East finds itself balancing between diplomatic progress and the looming threat of renewed wars.

While peace and reconstruction efforts signal a possible path forward, fragile ceasefires and controversial policy proposals could just as easily pull the region back into instability.

The 15-month war between Israel and Hamas has altered regional power dynamics. Iran’s influence has weakened after its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza suffered heavy losses in their conflicts with Israel. Tehran was additionally impacted by the fall of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s regime, which severed a crucial land route between Iran and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Mr Al Assad’s government collapsed following a swift offensive by rebel forces, disrupting Tehran’s strategic reach in the region. After the ousting of Mr Al Assad, Ahmed Al Sharaa has transitioned from leading the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) in Idlib, under the name of Abu Mohammed Al Jolani, to becoming Syria's interim president.

Mr Al Sharaa and Syria’s new transitional leaders have since engaged in high-level diplomatic efforts, including meetings with international leaders and participation in global conferences, to drum up support for Syria's reconstruction and political stabilisation. His administration emphasises inclusivity and national consensus, aiming to rebuild the country's institutions and restore its standing in the international community.

As part of these efforts, Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani over the weekend attended a high-level meeting on the sidelines of AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies organised by Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At the summit, the first of its type, a coalition of Middle Eastern nations, the IMF and the World Bank agreed to form an informal co-ordination group to oversee financial aid and reconstruction efforts, with a particular focus on war-torn Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.

The Syrian civil war has left the country in economic disarray, primarily due to extensive international sanctions imposed on Mr Al Assad's regime. The new interim government has pushed for economic recovery, leading the EU and US to ease some sanctions, particularly in energy and trade, to support reconstruction while maintaining restrictions for stability. However, Syrian officials argue that partial relief is insufficient and are calling for a full removal of sanctions.

Lebanon and Gaza are also in urgent need of foreign assistance for reconstruction following the devastating wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Having international talks on reconstruction in AlUla, instead of a western capital, is one more result of diplomatic gravity moving to the Gulf.

Diplomatic manoeuvring

That’s not all happening in the kingdom. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Riyadh on Monday, where discussions with Russian officials took place today with the aim of ending the Ukraine war and repairing ties between the two countries.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. AP
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. AP

Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov in the Saudi capital. Ukraine did not participate.

This comes on the heels of the Munich Security Conference, where European leaders voiced concerns about being excluded from critical discussions that will affect Ukrainian and European security. The absence of both European and Ukrainian representatives from the Riyadh talks has not been well received in Europe. There are growing fears that the US might prioritise its own strategic interests over broader collective security agreements.

“It is relevant and welcome that Saudi Arabia is hosting this first meeting on Ukraine, solidifying Riyadh, and the region, as key players in the emerging global order,” Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and a former senior vice president of the World Bank, told The National.

“Europe will remain a key player as negotiations progress and the situation on the ground evolves. Any agreement must not be isolated from the crucial task of reconstruction and the maintenance of progressive stability, including peacekeeping in the traditional sense,” said Ms Palacio. “In the medium term, the EU will need to carefully manage the continuing accession process, with concrete measures that affect both the economy and the well-being of Ukrainians.”

As Saudi Arabia is hosting historic US-Russia talks, the kingdom is solidifying its role as as a key mediator. Talks between Mr Rubio and Saudi officials were also expected to focus on Mr Trump’s proposal for the displacement of Gaza’s Palestinian population from their homeland, with the US president suggesting "owning" the enclave.

Reports emerged ahead of Mr Rubio’s visit that Saudi Arabia is open to mediating between the Trump administration and Iran to bring about a new agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme, according to CNN. This comes after a series of regional shifts, including the weakening of Iran's allies in the Middle East.

“Saudi Arabia is a potential player this time due to its improved economic and diplomatic relations with Tehran,” defence analyst Riad Kahwaji told The National. Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties in March 2023, in a deal brokered by China.

Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center, noted that Saudi Arabia's adoption of a neutral stance over the past decade has strengthened its role in international mediation.

"This approach has positioned the kingdom as a credible and impartial facilitator, enabling it to engage effectively in conflict resolution without direct involvement in the disputes themselves."

Region on edge

Despite diplomatic momentum, the Middle East remains precariously balanced. Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon are holding for now, but the risk of escalation is ever-present. The Israeli army said that Israel would keep troops in five posts in southern Lebanon beyond the February 18 deadline for its withdrawal from the country.

Unifil soldiers patrol past the rubble of destroyed buildings following the Israeli forces' withdrawal from the Kfar Kila village in southern Lebanon on February 18, 2025. EPA
Unifil soldiers patrol past the rubble of destroyed buildings following the Israeli forces' withdrawal from the Kfar Kila village in southern Lebanon on February 18, 2025. EPA

The announcement came after Lebanese officials expressed concerns that Tuesday’s withdrawal deadline would not be met. “It was clear that the occupation would delay its scheduled withdrawal on February 18, citing the security of the settlements as a pretext to remain in several locations,” an MP from the Hezbollah-Amal bloc told The National.

As for Gaza, Arab officials said that Mr Trump’s vision for the enclave could further fuel regional instability. Mr Trump floated the idea of displacing Palestinians from Gaza earlier this month during an official visit by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington. He proposed turning the enclave into the “Riviera of the Middle East” and then suggested that the two million Palestinians who would be displaced under his plan for the US to “own” Gaza would not have the right to return after reconstruction.

Mr Trump’s statements sparked condemnation across the Arab world and much of Europe, with some critics saying the plan would amount to ethnic cleansing. In response, Arab leaders are set to convene a mini-summit in Riyadh later this week to discuss alternatives to Mr Trump’s plan. The summit is expected to include leaders from the six Gulf Co-operation Council nations, along with Egypt and Jordan.

On Monday, the US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said, after meeting with Mr Netanyahu, that “the one thing that President Trump has done, he started a discussion that was long overdue”, adding that Arab states had “woken up” to the need for an alternative solution for Gaza. A unified Arab stance is expected to emerge from the mini-summit in Riyadh, which will set the stage for another Arab summit in Cairo later on.

“Saudi Arabia is playing a strong and smart geopolitical role, enabling Arab powers to regain their status in the region, particularly vis-a-vis non-Arab players,” said Mr Kahwaji. “Riyadh’s role is crucial in this context, and so far, it has been successful, especially through its partnership with the UAE. We see strong co-ordination between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, particularly in navigating and operating in the region’s hotspots."

Amid these developments, experts argue that the Middle East is unlikely to see either lasting peace or full-scale war.

"Given the current US policy, major conflicts are unlikely to be resolved," said Mr Sager. "At the same time, regional actors cannot afford large-scale wars and have little appetite for escalation in the face of ongoing uncertainty."

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

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The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK 

Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

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Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The specs

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm

Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto

Price: from Dh317,671

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Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR

US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.

KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.

 

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Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

What are the main cyber security threats?

Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

SPECS

Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR

Engine: 5.7-litre V8

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 362hp

Torque: 530Nm

Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction

Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.

Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.

Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.

Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.

Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.

What are the guidelines?

Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.

Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.

Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.

Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.

Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.

Source: American Paediatric Association
THE BIO

Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13 

Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier

Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife 

What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents. 

Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.

Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

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Fines for littering

In Dubai:

Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro

Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle. 
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle

In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches 

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Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
  • The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
  • The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
  • The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
  • The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
  • The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok

UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final

(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)

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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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The specs: Fenyr SuperSport

Price, base: Dh5.1 million

Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm

Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km

Fireball

Moscow claimed it hit the largest military fuel storage facility in Ukraine, triggering a huge fireball at the site.

A plume of black smoke rose from a fuel storage facility in the village of Kalynivka outside Kyiv on Friday after Russia said it had destroyed the military site with Kalibr cruise missiles.

"On the evening of March 24, Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles attacked a fuel base in the village of Kalynivka near Kyiv," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying the village some 40 kilometres south-west of Kyiv was targeted.

Bundesliga fixtures

Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)

Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm) 

RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm) 

Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm) 

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn  (4.30pm) 

Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm) 

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)

Sunday, May 17

Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),

Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)

Monday, May 18

Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
While you're here

THE SPECS

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm

Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto

Top speed: 250kph

Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: Dh146,999

Another way to earn air miles

In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.

An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.

“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 630bhp

Torque: 900Nm

Price: Dh810,000

Company%20Profile
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Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Updated: February 21, 2025, 6:53 AM`