Iran’s growing shopping list of military hardware could face a budget crunch after Donald Trump restored his policy of “maximum pressure”, a tough sanctions regime started by the President in his first term.
Similar to the first round of Mr Trump's sanctions between 2018 and 2020, he aims to “bring Iran’s oil exports to zero”, but hinted on Wednesday at wanting a “deal” to make Iran a “successful country” without a nuclear weapon.
How much of a setback for the regime this represents is uncertain. It could rattle hardliners intent on deterring another Israeli attack, potentially on the country’s advanced nuclear programme.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite hardline force, and Iran’s regular army, the Artesh, have been re-equipping as quickly as possible after two successful Israeli air attacks on the country. They have released images of new hardware including drones and missiles that can hit Israel. Iran’s defence budget was increased by 200 per cent last year, but depends heavily on oil revenue for at least half its funding. Last month, Tehran said it had boosted its drone force by 1,000 unmanned aircraft.
“The implementation of maximum pressure will have significant economic consequences. Iran will struggle to balance its military modernisation efforts with economic survival. The regime's defence spending priorities – particularly for the IRGC and its ballistic missile, drone, and naval programmes – could face funding shortfalls, forcing difficult trade-offs,” says Clement Therme, non-Resident Fellow at the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah).
“This will make it harder to fund military acquisitions, especially from Russia and China.”
Trump's nuclear deal
Mr Trump’s previous campaign slashed Iran’s oil exports from nearly three million barrels per day in 2017 to about 400,000 in 2019, and followed his cancellation of the Obama-era nuclear deal, which eased sanctions on Iran in exchange for UN inspections to curb the nuclear programme.
Mr Trump says Iran is “too close” to being able to develop a bomb, roughly matching the assessment of Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr Grossi said in December that Iran’s medium and highly enriched uranium stockpiles were the same as those of “nuclear armed states”.
Former US president Joe Biden’s multilateral efforts to revive the nuclear deal stumbled, with Iran accusing the IAEA of helping a foreign power sabotage its nuclear sites. Mr Biden kept most sanctions in place, but Iran adapted to covertly increase oil exports and critics say Mr Biden did not keep pace.
The IRGC could limp on in a new “maximum pressure” campaign by squeezing more revenue from black-market economic activity as well as control of state companies, but this would come amid growing public anger over a deep recession and rising protests, acknowledged by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
It leaves the regime with a tough choice as it tackles a large budget deficit and an energy crisis due to a lack of investment in power infrastructure. High subsidies, including cash handouts to low-income Iranians, will complicate decisions about how to adjust a military budget that was increased by 200 per cent at the end of last year. Mr Pezeshkian said last week that some government workers' salaries were three months behind.
Military build-up
Iran is not shy about advertising how defence funds are spent, regularly showing new missiles, drones and air defence systems at military drills. On Thursday, Iran displayed what it said was a new maritime drone taking off from a new naval vessel, the Shahid Bahman Bagheri.
Iran also regularly announces the production of new ballistic and cruise missiles that can hit Israel.
Hundreds of these weapons were expended in April and October when Iran launched two massive rounds of strikes on Israel – the largest of their kind in history – which were mostly intercepted at considerable cost to a coalition of US, British, French and Israeli forces, perhaps nearly $2 billion.
Israel’s retaliatory strikes hit Iran’s most advanced air defences, including long-range radars with coverage across Iraq, and elements of their Russia-purchased S-300 PMU2 air defence system, wiping out equipment worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Iran’s S-300 PMU2 and associated systems were part of a delayed deal with Russia, which, after being stalled by sanctions, led Tehran to request $4 billion in compensation – a possible indicator of how much was spent.
Iran is working on replacing this lost equipment, recently showing upgraded variants of its Bavar 373 air defence system, which it claims is similar in capability to the S-300.
On January 27, Iran's military said it was going ahead with the purchase of several dozen Russian SU-35 fighter jets, which would be a significant boost to its fleet of decades-old aircraft, some of them purchased from the US in the Shah era.
Delayed several times, Iran's SU-35s could cost up to $85 million each, but the deals for the jets include pilot training and logistical support, significantly increasing costs.
Iran has a space programme too, which many experts say could double as cover for launching a nuclear-armed missile.
“Trump is clearly open to talking to Iran, but he will use the threat of massive economic pressure, especially on the oil sector, to try to achieve what he wants at the negotiating table. That doesn’t mean that military action is off the table, but makes it less likely in the near term,” says Norman Ricklefs, head of the NAMEA risk consultancy.
“Importantly, while we know that Trump does not want Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, we still don’t know exactly what concessions he wants to see from Tehran, which places Iran in a difficult negotiating position.”
Mr Therme says the “conundrum” that a new maximum pressure campaign could present Iran may create splits within the regime.
“Tehran might resort to more barter-based trade or financial workarounds to acquire military tech, slowing modernisation. It could lead to competition within the armed forces – the Artesh could see further neglect in favour of the IRGC, which plays a central role in sanctions evasion and regional influence.”
These divisions are playing out in parliament, where prominent reformists including Ali Shakuri-Rad have pressed for negotiations with Mr Trump. Hardliners support a “Look East” geopolitical approach and believe Iran can achieve adequate economic growth by strengthening alliances with China – which signed a high-profile strategic agreement with Iran in 2021 and buys most Iranian oil – and Russia, which signed a 20-year defence and economic co-operation pact in January.
“Iran's economic trajectory depends on its relations with Washington, while the regime's security survival is tied to its military co-operation with Moscow. This dilemma presents a strategic conundrum: prioritise economic survival or shift entirely toward an all-security strategy,” Mr Therme says.
“In the first scenario, Tehran accepts direct diplomatic negotiations with Trump. In contrast, the second scenario would likely lead to a renewed emphasis on Tehran's ‘Look East’ policy.”
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Fund-raising tips for start-ups
Develop an innovative business concept
Have the ability to differentiate yourself from competitors
Put in place a business continuity plan after Covid-19
Prepare for the worst-case scenario (further lockdowns, long wait for a vaccine, etc.)
Have enough cash to stay afloat for the next 12 to 18 months
Be creative and innovative to reduce expenses
Be prepared to use Covid-19 as an opportunity for your business
* Tips from Jassim Al Marzooqi and Walid Hanna
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
More from Neighbourhood Watch
The design
The protective shell is covered in solar panels to make use of light and produce energy. This will drastically reduce energy loss.
More than 80 per cent of the energy consumed by the French pavilion will be produced by the sun.
The architecture will control light sources to provide a highly insulated and airtight building.
The forecourt is protected from the sun and the plants will refresh the inner spaces.
A micro water treatment plant will recycle used water to supply the irrigation for the plants and to flush the toilets. This will reduce the pavilion’s need for fresh water by 30 per cent.
Energy-saving equipment will be used for all lighting and projections.
Beyond its use for the expo, the pavilion will be easy to dismantle and reuse the material.
Some elements of the metal frame can be prefabricated in a factory.
From architects to sound technicians and construction companies, a group of experts from 10 companies have created the pavilion.
Work will begin in May; the first stone will be laid in Dubai in the second quarter of 2019.
Construction of the pavilion will take 17 months from May 2019 to September 2020.
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. AL%20BOOM
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Company%20Profile
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500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
Who are the Sacklers?
The Sackler family is a transatlantic dynasty that owns Purdue Pharma, which manufactures and markets OxyContin, one of the drugs at the centre of America's opioids crisis. The family is well known for their generous philanthropy towards the world's top cultural institutions, including Guggenheim Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, Tate in Britain, Yale University and the Serpentine Gallery, to name a few. Two branches of the family control Purdue Pharma.
Isaac Sackler and Sophie Greenberg were Jewish immigrants who arrived in New York before the First World War. They had three sons. The first, Arthur, died before OxyContin was invented. The second, Mortimer, who died aged 93 in 2010, was a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma. The third, Raymond, died aged 97 in 2017 and was also a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma.
It was Arthur, a psychiatrist and pharmaceutical marketeer, who started the family business dynasty. He and his brothers bought a small company called Purdue Frederick; among their first products were laxatives and prescription earwax remover.
Arthur's branch of the family has not been involved in Purdue for many years and his daughter, Elizabeth, has spoken out against it, saying the company's role in America's drugs crisis is "morally abhorrent".
The lawsuits that were brought by the attorneys general of New York and Massachussetts named eight Sacklers. This includes Kathe, Mortimer, Richard, Jonathan and Ilene Sackler Lefcourt, who are all the children of either Mortimer or Raymond. Then there's Theresa Sackler, who is Mortimer senior's widow; Beverly, Raymond's widow; and David Sackler, Raymond's grandson.
Members of the Sackler family are rarely seen in public.
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
