In four weeks and across different regions, Gulf nations helped negotiate ceasefires, secure the release of captives, facilitate prisoner exchanges and resolve political stalemates, demonstrating how they have expanded their influence in diplomacy and international relations.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have increasingly taken on roles once reserved for traditional global powers, mediating agreements and de-escalating crises. Analysts argue this shift underscores the rising influence of middle powers in international politics. It also highlights the desire of these nations, historically regarded as economic powerhouses and energy suppliers, to secure stability in neighbouring countries and set the wider region on a path to recovery.
Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Arab Gulf states were drawn to conflict mediation for strategic reasons. "It puts them in the global spotlight, strengthens their ties with major powers and, when successful, helps stabilise war-torn nations in the Middle East," he explained.
“The Gulf states’ significant role in diplomacy reflects their rising global influence and the expanding space for regional powers to shape geopolitical outcomes," added Mr Alhasan. "However, mediation is not without challenges. It carries reputational risks and can drain state resources, often with no guarantee of success or tangible results."
In January, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, pausing 15 months of a war that has killed about 47,400 Palestinians and caused widespread destruction. The agreement was brokered through indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar, the US and Egypt.
The negotiations took place in Doha, where representatives from Israel and Hamas operated from separate locations due to deep-seated mistrust, with mediators shuttling between them. Despite numerous disagreements and delays over specific details such as troop withdrawals and hostage lists, a fragile ceasefire was eventually achieved.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, played a key part in these discussions. The breakthrough was also made possible by co-operation among representatives from the previous and current US administrations. The ceasefire agreement includes the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees in phases, along with measures to address the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Achieving the ceasefire in the enclave is a key factor in easing tensions across the region after the Hamas-led attack on Israel had fuelled conflict in several parts of the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen.
Qatar also announced its successful mediation of a prisoner swap between the US and Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, Afghanistan released an unspecified number of American citizens in exchange for an Afghan fighter held in the US. The Taliban government described the deal as a "good example of resolving issues through dialogue” and expressed gratitude to Qatar for its “effective role”.
Similarly, Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 25 prisoners in January after negotiations mediated by the UAE. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the Emirates, which has brokered similar swaps before.
The declining influence of Iran in Lebanon and the region has created an opportunity for the Gulf states to establish a stronger presence in Lebanon
Lebanese official
In Yemen, the Houthi rebels said they released the crew of the Galaxy Leader after mediation by Oman, which has long been an interlocutor with the group. The vehicle carrier was seized in November 2023 at the beginning of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping at the start of the Gaza war.
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University and Emirati columnist, said the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar "have grown increasingly confident in taking on diplomatic roles that go beyond regional boundaries".
He added: “Their involvement in mediating between Russia and Ukraine, the US and Afghanistan, and other crises highlights their newfound status as trusted global actors.”
He emphasised that this confidence stems from the respect Gulf states have earned internationally. “They have built trust by consistently proving their effectiveness. One success leads to another. Moscow trusts them, Washington respects them and other regional players recognise their reliability."
'A unique niche'
This month, Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role in the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president, marking the kingdom's renewed engagement in Lebanese politics after years of distancing itself. Alongside the US and France, Riyadh backed Mr Aoun’s candidacy as part of a broader strategy to counter Iran’s influence and curb Hezbollah’s political dominance. This international support was crucial to breaking Lebanon’s two-year presidential deadlock.
For much of the past decade, Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, had largely disengaged from Lebanon because of Hezbollah’s control over the country’s political and security apparatus. The kingdom’s withdrawal included limiting financial aid and reducing diplomatic engagement, as Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran overshadowed Lebanon’s ties with Gulf states.
However, the shifting political dynamics in Lebanon, including the erosion of Hezbollah’s influence after its year-long war with Israel and the downfall of its Syrian ally Bashar Al Assad, prompted Saudi Arabia to reconsider its approach. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Lebanon after Mr Aoun’s election, marking the first such visit in 15 years. He expressed optimism over Lebanon’s future if reforms are enacted.
In another sign of warming ties, the UAE reopened its embassy in Beirut, signalling broader Arab support for Lebanon’s new leadership. Beirut is keen to maintain constructive ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in particular, hoping they will help with post-war reconstruction.
“The declining influence of Iran in Lebanon and the region has created an opportunity for the Gulf states to establish a stronger presence in Lebanon, aiming to stabilise and protect the country,” a senior Lebanese security source told The National. “If progress continues as planned, we can expect a flow of investment and aid. However, if things take a negative turn, Lebanon may face a severe crisis. The hope lies in the Gulf stepping in to salvage what remains.”
Analysts suggest that each Gulf nation has carved out a unique niche: Qatar as a diplomatic mediator, Saudi Arabia using its political influence and the UAE emerging as a leader in humanitarian relief.
“The UAE is often the first responder to global crises, with unmatched expertise in delivering aid wherever needed,” noted Mr Abdulla. “We may well see this expertise at work in Gaza now that a ceasefire has been achieved.”
He pointed out that the traditional description of the Gulf nations as "small states" no longer applied.
"These countries are emerging middle powers, not just because of their financial strength, but because they have built robust economies and established extensive networks of partners from Asia to the West," he added.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Midnights'
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
Honeymoonish
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
LEAGUE CUP QUARTER-FINAL DRAW
Stoke City v Tottenham
Brentford v Newcastle United
Arsenal v Manchester City
Everton v Manchester United
All ties are to be played the week commencing December 21.
Avatar%20(2009)
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
More coverage from the Future Forum
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch (captain), Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, David Warner, Adam Zampa
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Bayer Leverkusen 2 Bayern Munich 4
Leverkusen: Alario (9'), Wirtz (89')
Bayern: Coman (27'), Goretzka (42'), Gnabry (45'), Lewandowski (66')
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
