Month of successful mediation highlights Gulf’s growing influence in global diplomacy

In four weeks and across different regions, Gulf nations helped negotiate ceasefires, secure the release of captives, facilitate prisoner exchanges and resolve political stalemates, demonstrating how they have expanded their influence in diplomacy and international relations.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have increasingly taken on roles once reserved for traditional global powers, mediating agreements and de-escalating crises. Analysts argue this shift underscores the rising influence of middle powers in international politics. It also highlights the desire of these nations, historically regarded as economic powerhouses and energy suppliers, to secure stability in neighbouring countries and set the wider region on a path to recovery.

Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Arab Gulf states were drawn to conflict mediation for strategic reasons. "It puts them in the global spotlight, strengthens their ties with major powers and, when successful, helps stabilise war-torn nations in the Middle East," he explained.

“The Gulf states’ significant role in diplomacy reflects their rising global influence and the expanding space for regional powers to shape geopolitical outcomes," added Mr Alhasan. "However, mediation is not without challenges. It carries reputational risks and can drain state resources, often with no guarantee of success or tangible results."

In January, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, pausing 15 months of a war that has killed about 47,400 Palestinians and caused widespread destruction. The agreement was brokered through indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar, the US and Egypt.

The negotiations took place in Doha, where representatives from Israel and Hamas operated from separate locations due to deep-seated mistrust, with mediators shuttling between them. Despite numerous disagreements and delays over specific details such as troop withdrawals and hostage lists, a fragile ceasefire was eventually achieved.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, played a key part in these discussions. The breakthrough was also made possible by co-operation among representatives from the previous and current US administrations. The ceasefire agreement includes the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees in phases, along with measures to address the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Achieving the ceasefire in the enclave is a key factor in easing tensions across the region after the Hamas-led attack on Israel had fuelled conflict in several parts of the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen.

Qatar also announced its successful mediation of a prisoner swap between the US and Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, Afghanistan released an unspecified number of American citizens in exchange for an Afghan fighter held in the US. The Taliban government described the deal as a "good example of resolving issues through dialogue” and expressed gratitude to Qatar for its “effective role”.

Similarly, Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 25 prisoners in January after negotiations mediated by the UAE. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the Emirates, which has brokered similar swaps before.

In Yemen, the Houthi rebels said they released the crew of the Galaxy Leader after mediation by Oman, which has long been an interlocutor with the group. The vehicle carrier was seized in November 2023 at the beginning of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping at the start of the Gaza war.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University and Emirati columnist, said the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar "have grown increasingly confident in taking on diplomatic roles that go beyond regional boundaries".

He added: “Their involvement in mediating between Russia and Ukraine, the US and Afghanistan, and other crises highlights their newfound status as trusted global actors.”

He emphasised that this confidence stems from the respect Gulf states have earned internationally. “They have built trust by consistently proving their effectiveness. One success leads to another. Moscow trusts them, Washington respects them and other regional players recognise their reliability."

'A unique niche'

This month, Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role in the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president, marking the kingdom's renewed engagement in Lebanese politics after years of distancing itself. Alongside the US and France, Riyadh backed Mr Aoun’s candidacy as part of a broader strategy to counter Iran’s influence and curb Hezbollah’s political dominance. This international support was crucial to breaking Lebanon’s two-year presidential deadlock.

For much of the past decade, Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, had largely disengaged from Lebanon because of Hezbollah’s control over the country’s political and security apparatus. The kingdom’s withdrawal included limiting financial aid and reducing diplomatic engagement, as Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran overshadowed Lebanon’s ties with Gulf states.

However, the shifting political dynamics in Lebanon, including the erosion of Hezbollah’s influence after its year-long war with Israel and the downfall of its Syrian ally Bashar Al Assad, prompted Saudi Arabia to reconsider its approach. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Lebanon after Mr Aoun’s election, marking the first such visit in 15 years. He expressed optimism over Lebanon’s future if reforms are enacted.

In another sign of warming ties, the UAE reopened its embassy in Beirut, signalling broader Arab support for Lebanon’s new leadership. Beirut is keen to maintain constructive ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in particular, hoping they will help with post-war reconstruction.

“The declining influence of Iran in Lebanon and the region has created an opportunity for the Gulf states to establish a stronger presence in Lebanon, aiming to stabilise and protect the country,” a senior Lebanese security source told The National. “If progress continues as planned, we can expect a flow of investment and aid. However, if things take a negative turn, Lebanon may face a severe crisis. The hope lies in the Gulf stepping in to salvage what remains.”

Analysts suggest that each Gulf nation has carved out a unique niche: Qatar as a diplomatic mediator, Saudi Arabia using its political influence and the UAE emerging as a leader in humanitarian relief.

“The UAE is often the first responder to global crises, with unmatched expertise in delivering aid wherever needed,” noted Mr Abdulla. “We may well see this expertise at work in Gaza now that a ceasefire has been achieved.”

He pointed out that the traditional description of the Gulf nations as "small states" no longer applied.

"These countries are emerging middle powers, not just because of their financial strength, but because they have built robust economies and established extensive networks of partners from Asia to the West," he added.