Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah likely to be extended

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A fragile 60-day truce between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is expected to be extended, UN and diplomatic sources have told The National. The ceasefire is set to expire on Monday and, while a return to full-scale fighting is unlikely, more time is needed to implement the terms of the deal, they said.

Israel and Hezbollah reached the agreement in late November, after a year-long conflict that escalated into full-scale war last September. The ceasefire stipulates that Israeli troops must withdraw from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is to remove its fighters and weapons from the area and Lebanese forces will move in. The 60-day timeframe concludes on Monday at 4am local time.

“We expect the ceasefire to be prolonged as the mechanism took some time to get in place, around two to three weeks,” a diplomatic source told The National. “The events that happened in Syria affected the deployment of the Lebanese army to the south.”

Following the downfall of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad's government in December, the Lebanese army took measures to secure the country's border with Syria. The army announced it had reinforced its controls along the border, particularly in the northern and eastern regions, to prevent security breaches or unauthorised crossings.

In addition to bolstering its troop presence, Lebanon reopened several border crossings, including at Qaa and Masnaa, to manage the flow of people between the two countries.

“Things are moving in the right direction, but this shouldn’t turn into a temporary solution. There must be a permanent resolution,” said the diplomatic source in reference to the ceasefire.

Israel on Thursday expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of the implementation of the deal, saying the terms had not been fulfilled quickly enough. Hezbollah, for its part, urged the international community to put pressure on Israel to ensure its troops adhere to Monday's withdrawal deadline.

“There have been positive movements where the Lebanese army and Unifil have taken the place of Hezbollah forces,” said Israeli government spokesman David Mencer, referring to UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. “We've also made clear that these movements have not been fast enough and there is much more work to do.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office on Friday released a statement, saying Israeli troops would remain in Lebanon for longer because their withdrawal "is conditional on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon, and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani [River]".

"Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the state of Lebanon, the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full co-ordination with the United States," it added.

There was no immediate response from Hezbollah or the Lebanese government.

Both sides have accused each other repeatedly of breaching the terms of the ceasefire. A UN source told The National that “Israeli forces are until now continuing their operations in Sector East”.

Hezbollah said in a statement earlier this week that there had been leaks about Israel postponing its withdrawal beyond the 60-day period and that the group considered any breach of the agreement to be unacceptable.

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah last year dealt significant blows to the group. Israel killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah, as well as thousands of fighters, and destroyed much of its arsenal. The group’s position was further weakened by the toppling of its Syrian ally, Mr Al Assad, which disrupted Hezbollah's supply route from its sponsor, Iran.

The political landscape in Lebanon has also shifted. This month, Lebanon’s parliament elected former army commander Joseph Aoun as president. Hezbollah had long opposed Mr Aoun’s candidacy and viewed him as America’s choice. Mr Aoun’s victory signalled a further decline in the influence of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanese politics.

Sources indicated that the administration of US President Donald Trump was pushing for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, said Israel had put an end to hostilities and was removing its forces from Lebanon. The Lebanese army has gone to locations of Hezbollah ammunition stores and destroyed them, he added.

But he emphasised the need for more work. “Are we done? No. We will need more time to achieve results,” said Mr Barrot.