US-allied Kurdish forces in north-east Syria have tightened security at prisons holding thousands of ISIS militants, as fears grow that remnants of the extremist group could take advantage of a volatile political transition in the country to carry out jailbreaks.
The prospect of an ISIS resurgence in the region, where the Syrian Democratic Forces control vast territory, has left SDF commanders on edge as a transitional government in Damascus struggles to establish order following the ouster of president Bashar Al Assad last month.
“In recent weeks ISIS has launched six attacks on our sites,” a spokesman for the People's Protection Units (YPG), a key military faction of the SDF, told The National.
But he said prisons and detention centres are “currently secured” after the SDF beefed up security.
The SDF is holding more than 12,000 ISIS militants, both Syrian and foreign nationals, in prisons scattered across the country, according to the YPG spokesman. The detainees, captured after the fall in 2019 of a self-declared ISIS caliphate that had been established across parts of Syria and neighbouring Iraq, include some of the group’s most battle-hardened fighters.
Additionally, more than 50,000 women and children associated with ISIS remain in camps including Al Hol and Al Roj, with many adhering to the group’s ideology.
The fall of Mr Al Assad has created a power vacuum ripe for exploitation by extremists like ISIS, experts say.
“Activity by Daesh [ISIS] has increased significantly, and the danger of a resurgence has doubled,” SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi recently told media. “They now have more capabilities and more opportunities.”
He said ISIS attacks had forced the SDF to relocate some militants to more secure centres. ISIS jailbreak attempts in the region have been successful in the past. In January 2022, the group launched a brazen assault on a high-security prison in the north-eastern city of Hasakah, sparking a nine-day battle between ISIS sleeper cells and SDF forces, who were supported by US air strikes.
The fighting killed 140 SDF personnel and dozens of ISIS members, while hundreds of prisoners escaped including high-profile militants. Many escapees are believed to have been smuggled into the central Syrian desert, an ISIS stronghold.
Despite losing most of the territory it once controlled at its height a decade ago, ISIS has continued to operate in sleeper cells across Syria and Iraq. Since March 2023, ISIS has claimed responsibility for 1,121 attacks, according to a study by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. These assaults have killed or injured nearly 4,770 people, underscoring the continuing threat posed by group.
“Those inside detention facilities are continuing to rest and be radicalised,” Myles Caggins, a former spokesman for the Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria, told The National. “If they’re broken out, they would resurge.”
Financial networks and smuggling operations between ISIS operatives in Iraq and Syria remain active, fuelling the group’s resilience, added Mr Caggins, a retired US army colonel who is now a senior fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington.
Aside from its fighters, the camps housing ISIS-affiliated women and children also pose a major challenge. Many of these people remain indoctrinated and fervent in their allegiance to ISIS, according to the SDF.
“The mood is already changing in these camps. The indoctrinated women are expecting they will be freed soon, and ISIS is making a comeback in Syria after Assad’s fall,” said an official close to the SDF who requested anonymity.
Efforts to repatriate these individuals to their home countries have met with limited success as few countries are willing to take back citizens that pose a danger, leaving the camps as breeding grounds for radicalisation.
Adding to the SDF’s challenges are clashes with Turkish-backed militias in the north-east. Ankara considers the YPG to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has fought the Turkish state for 40 years.
“The biggest concern is that the Turkish state will launch an attack on the region, which will weaken the protection of the prisons, because our forces will be busy flooding the cities and towns,” said the YPG spokesperson.
Turkey has called for the administration of ISIS prisons to be handed over to the new Syrian government in Damascus under Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, which led the rebel assault that toppled Mr Al Assad. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said imprisoned ISIS militants should be repatriated to their countries of origin.
But the YPG representative expressed reservations. “We cannot hand over the ISIS file to any party under these circumstances,” he said. “We are the ones who sacrificed thousands of our fighters in order to weaken ISIS. We also do not trust these parties that want to manage prisons.”
He said the YPG would wait until a new Syrian government is “created through fair elections” that includes all factions before making any changes.
Mr Caggins said Syria's transitional government under HTS should address the future of the prisons and camps as soon as possible. “One of the key items that must be on the agenda of Syria’s new leaders is what to do with the ISIS detainees currently held by the SDF,” he said.
The retired US army colonel said Washington's presence through the SDF in north-eastern Syria remains crucial to prevent a resurgence by ISIS. US forces in partnership with the Kurds have carried out dozens of air strikes on ISIS targets in recent days.
“The co-ordination of the global coalition with Iraqi security forces, Peshmerga, and the SDF has been key to preventing ISIS from reclaiming territory,” Mr Caggins said.
He urged the coming US administration under Donald Trump to engage aggressively with Turkey to deter it from launching attacks on Kurdish forces.
“If those attacks are to come from Turkey, it will certainly displace many thousands,” he added. “And when there is disarray, discord, disharmony, that is when ISIS is likely to pick up more recruits and conduct attacks and further destabilise the region.”
