Syria could take four years to hold elections, new leader Al Shara says

Syria could take up to four years to hold elections after the fall of former president Bashar Al Assad's regime, according to Ahmad Al Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham.

HTS's lightning offensive through Syria allowed the rebel group to take control of the multi-ethnic, multi-confessional country in under two weeks, ending a 13-year civil war. Mr Al Shara has sought to assure the public that Syria's future will be inclusive, and said on Sunday that preparing a new constitution might take about three years, before elections could be held.

“Any sound elections will need to carry out a comprehensive population census,” Mr Al Shara said. The number and distribution of Syria's electorate will need to be assessed after the names of the 100,000 people estimated by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights to have died in Syrian prisons and detention centres since the country's protests in 2011. Millions who fled the country's brutal crackdown on its people, both internally and externally, may yet return home, further complicating efforts to establish an electoral roll.

It was Mr Al Shara's first comment on a potential timeline for elections since the removal of Mr Al Assad on December 8. Mr Al Shara also told Syrians more time would be needed to see improvements in their day-to-day lives. “Syria needs a year for the citizen to feel radical changes in services,” he said. He did not say what the interim government, which he began to install in mid-December, would do until elections could be held.

The new government in Damascus has been seeking to reassure its people and neighbours of its shift away from its roots in Islamist militancy, as the group's swift campaign left numerous questions about Syria's future unanswered.

Mr Al Shara confirmed that HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front and once affiliated with ISIS and Al Qaeda, will be dissolved.

“Certainly, the organisation will be dissolved, and this will be announced at the National Dialogue Conference,” he said. “Syria will not be a source of disturbance to anyone.”

The group has since renounced its ties to these extremist organisations and sought to reposition itself as a moderate force.

Foreign interests

Speaking to Saudi news outlet Al Arabiya, the rebel leader also appreciated the kingdom's positive statements and efforts to stabilise Syria. He highlighted the kingdom's significant potential for investment in the country. The Saudi Foreign Ministry recently said that the kingdom “stands by the Syrian people and their choices”, hoping for stability and security to prevail in Syria.

“The liberation of Syria ensures the security of the region and the Gulf for the next fifty years,” Mr Al Shara said.

He also acknowledged that Syria shares strategic interests with Russia, a close ally of the Assad regime during the civil war, and reiterated conciliatory signals his government has made previously.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said that the status of his country's military bases in Syria would be subject to negotiations with the new leadership in Damascus. However, there was “no need for any adjustments” to the treaty signed between Moscow and the ousted Assad government.

Mr Al Shara expressed hope that the administration of US president-elect Donald Trump would lift sanctions imposed on Syria.

Senior US diplomats who recently visited Damascus said Mr Al Shara came across as pragmatic, and Washington has decided to remove the $10 million bounty on the HTS leader's head.

As Syria embarks on this new chapter, the challenges ahead are numerous, with the country fragmented into regions controlled by disparate armed factions backed by various international powers seeking to preserve their interests.

Rebuilding the Syrian state will hinge on unity and stability among the rebel groups to prevent other actors from filling the political vacuum created by Mr Al Assad’s expulsion.

Syria's journey to justice remains a pressing issue, as the civil war, marked by violent suppression and forced disappearances, has left a legacy of mass graves and missing persons.