Syrians celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Umayyad Square, Damascus. Reuters
Syrians celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Umayyad Square, Damascus. Reuters
Syrians celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Umayyad Square, Damascus. Reuters
Syrians celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Umayyad Square, Damascus. Reuters

Bashar Al Assad’s fall raises critical questions for Israel’s destructive Gaza strategy


Robert Tollast
  • English
  • Arabic

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza

Gaza’s destruction has sharply divided conflict experts, including war veterans-turned-academics, over whether Israel has conducted a disastrous or successful campaign in its 14-month war.

The debate is in sharper focus after the fall in Syria of Bashar Al Assad, whose forces devastated cities in the 13-year-civil war. The conflict involved an insurgency that arose following harsh government crackdowns on protesters. About half a million were killed and 7.2 million remain internally displaced in a war that saw government forces use chemical weapons against civilians.

Once again, experts are asking which approach is best for defeating insurgents, from moderate fighters to terrorists: heavy firepower or prioritising political solutions? Gaza and Syria, they say, are good examples of an “enemy-centric” approach to countering insurgency, that neglects political solutions.

A neighbourhood devastated by Israeli strikes in the southern Gaza Strip. AFP
A neighbourhood devastated by Israeli strikes in the southern Gaza Strip. AFP

Like Syria, Gaza has been a catastrophe. Most of the enclave is devastated with more than 45,000 Palestinians killed, and 1.9 million internally displaced, most of its 2.3 million population. It's sparked accusations against Israel from war crimes to genocide.

In Gaza, the political process has been sidelined by violence. Current indications are that some parts of the enclave will be reoccupied by Israeli soldiers while questions linger over a transitional government.

“Israel is fighting an insurgency. It has overthrown the Hamas government in Gaza - and Hamas has resorted to insurgency,” says Emma Sky, an expert on conflict in the Middle East at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs and former political adviser to US General Ray Odierno and General David Petraeus, at the height of the Iraq war.

In that regard, “it is also important to discern between those who are members of armed groups and those who are civilians. A new generation across the Middle East and in the West is being radicalised witnessing the deaths of so many civilians,” she tells The National.

Insurgency is also growing in the West Bank’s Jenin, where militants gain ground against an isolated Palestinian Authority that is undermined by Israeli occupation and, critics say, its own corruption.

“Every government needs the support of its military establishment. Bashar Al Assad lost that support by failing to meet the needs of his soldiers and their leaders,” says Peter Mansoor, a historian at Ohio State University who has written two histories of the Iraq war. He served alongside Gen David Petraeus, who commanded forces during a strategic shift to counterinsurgency in the Iraq war known as the Surge, and later headed the CIA.

War by the book

Mr Mansoor’s comment on crumbling support for Al Assad - most Syrian men were conscripted - refers to the idea of legitimacy, where a ruling authority is popularly supported, undermining insurgents. Legitimacy is discussed in a US army field manual, FM 3-24. First published in 2006, it would normally have been an obscure document.

Peter Mansoor, left, a historian at Ohio State University, served alongside Gen David Petraeus, right, in Iraq. Photo: Staff Sergeant Lorie Jewell
Peter Mansoor, left, a historian at Ohio State University, served alongside Gen David Petraeus, right, in Iraq. Photo: Staff Sergeant Lorie Jewell

But in the midst of the Iraq war and co-authored with Gen Petraeus, to whom Mr Mansoor was executive officer, the manual turned heads among military thinkers. It deals with insurgency, against an occupying power or against a standing government.

Counterinsurgency, in the manual, puts politics and working with local leaders first. It tries to limit military action, which builds resentment to state forces. Once the political process is moving, it advocates handing security responsibilities to local government. It suggests benchmarks that could easily apply in Syria or Gaza.

“A drop in the number of people in camps often indicates a return to normalcy,” it suggests. “Strikes do not address the root causes for beginning or sustaining an insurgency,” another part of the manual warns.

Gen Petraeus commanded troops during a period widely seen as a turnaround for the US, after a time of strategic drift from battle to battle with insurgents, only for them to regroup.

“An illegitimate government’s only method of controlling its population is coercion, which can be resource-intensive,” FM 3-24 says. “Clear, hold, build,” was Gen Petraeus’s mantra, something he urged Israel to do in a Foreign Affairs opinion piece earlier this year. In Iraq, he warned US officers: “You can’t kill or capture your way out.”

Gen Petraeus and Mr Mansoor’s vision was not concerned with “whether the war was right or wrong”, Mr Mansoor says. “It was about what is the best way forward.”

Occupying Gaza?

Critics of Mr Petraeus say it is wrong to suggest Israel has to occupy and rebuild Gaza. One Israeli defence expert told The National that whatever happens, Israel needs to immediately formulate a plan for a postwar, Palestinian-led government.

“Israel is still focused on the military side, rather than the political side. The fortification of the Netzarim corridor in the centre of Gaza is not a good sign,” the expert said.

The two approaches – heavy firepower or “holding and building” in Gen Petraeus’s terms, have sometimes been divided into population-centric counterinsurgency and enemy-centric counterinsurgency.

“Israel is pursuing a specific kind of counterinsurgency, in which the counterinsurgent is basically indifferent to winning local popular support, or civilian welfare,” Sam Heller, a fellow at the Centre for International Research and Policy tells The National.

The Israelis and former Syrian army believe in the “enemy-centric” approach, destroying insurgents like a regular army. This is stated by the Israeli military’s Momentum Plan, which views Hezbollah and Hamas as armies, rather than ideological groups that have to lose political support.

According to a 2013 Rand think tank study of 71 insurgencies, 23 out of 33 state responses that involved “escalating repression and collective punishment” were defeated. Politics-led strategies were more successful.

Has Israel won in Gaza?

Analysts including Andrew Fox, a former senior lecturer at the UK’s Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, and John Spencer, chairman of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point US military academy, claim Israel’s war has been a success.

Mr Spencer, an Iraq veteran, says high “civilian harm” in Gaza is inevitable because of the need to eradicate Hamas, which is embedded in urban areas. Mr Fox has called the war “a masterpiece of operational design”. Both say it is more successful than US and British efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Mr Fox served.

US soldiers in the Hurriya district of Baghdad, Iraq, in March 2009. Getty Images
US soldiers in the Hurriya district of Baghdad, Iraq, in March 2009. Getty Images

Their views stand in stark contrast to another veteran Iraq war general who The National interviewed last year, Stanley McCrystal, who was critical of Israel’s approach, warning that extreme violence would serve to recruit militants.

Some highlight that, in the past, Israel has pursued policies closer to western thinking than its recent Gaza approach. “There have been Israeli political leaders, notably Yitzhak Rabin, who have realised that a political process needs to follow on from, if not accompany a protracted insurgency,” Clive Jones, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies tells The National.

“While he gained notoriety for calling on the [Israeli military] to ‘break the bones’ of protesters during the First Intifada, he soon realised that as a popular uprising, a political process was necessary,” adds Mr Jones.

“The other Israeli strategy, however, is that insurgents must be punished first and forced to accept Israel’s diktats. Moshe Yaalon, when he was chief of staff, noted before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence committee in 2002 that Israel’s superiority needed to be burnt into the consciousness of the Palestinians. I think this speaks, of course, to an Israeli view of deterrence but perhaps also [to] an existential fear that without the use of overwhelming force, the very existence of Israel is at stake.”

West Bank in crisis

Dave Harden, former mission director of USAID in the West Bank and Gaza, tells The National that the US previously formulated a plan to encourage Israeli-Palestinian Authority co-operation, dramatically reducing unemployment and boosting security co-ordination, specifically by opening up the Jalameh crossing north of Jenin.

The move, following the bloody unrest of the Second Intifada in the early 2000s, allowed Palestinian traders to sell on global markets. “The opening of Jalameh also allowed for Israeli Arabs to cross into the West Bank city to go shopping, get car repairs, and visit family. These efforts reduced unemployment, improved security, raised incomes, and gave hope for a more stable future,” he says.

A woman stands next to a police vehicle as Palestinian security forces patrol amid clashes with militants at the camp in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Reuters
A woman stands next to a police vehicle as Palestinian security forces patrol amid clashes with militants at the camp in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Reuters

But his experience shows that ultimately, only the Israelis can choose their tactics. “While these efforts in Jenin and Jalameh were foundational, they were never intended to solve the political issues between Israelis and Palestinians. Instead, these efforts provided a 15-year window to negotiate a political resolution, which as we know never happened.”

Mr Mansoor cautions that the whole western idea of counterinsurgency may be lost on leaders such as Mr Al Assad and Mr Netanyahu. Mr Jones agrees, saying that “across the Middle East, few militaries facing insurgencies have tried to marry proportionate force to a wider political strategy”.

“Netanyahu's kinetic approach will not end the conflict with the Palestinians, but that is not his goal. He's perfectly fine with mowing the grass as Israeli settlers slowly take over Palestinian territory. It's a long game,” Mr Mansoor says.

"What is unique about the situation in Gaza is the holding of Israeli hostages. This has shaped Israel’s response," says Ms Sky, who also worked in Gaza and the West Bank on capacity building in the 1990s.

"Internal Israel politics has also prevented the articulation and adoption of an end state for Gaza which surely should be the establishment of a legitimate Palestinian government committed to peaceful co-existence with Israel. The US has enabled Israel’s disproportionate response in Gaza through the provision of weaponry and the vetoing of UN resolutions," she says.

High profile Al Shabab attacks
  • 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
  • 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
  • 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
  • 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
  • 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
  • 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
About Takalam

Date started: early 2020

Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: HealthTech and wellness

Number of staff: 4

Funding to date: Bootstrapped

While you're here
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Abu Dhabi Awards explained:

What are the awards? They honour anyone who has made a contribution to life in Abu Dhabi.

Are they open to only Emiratis? The awards are open to anyone, regardless of age or nationality, living anywhere in the world.

When do nominations close? The process concludes on December 31.

How do I nominate someone? Through the website.

When is the ceremony? The awards event will take place early next year.

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COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Lamsa

Founder: Badr Ward

Launched: 2014

Employees: 60

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: EdTech

Funding to date: $15 million

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

Mina Cup winners

Under 12 – Minerva Academy

Under 14 – Unam Pumas

Under 16 – Fursan Hispania

Under 18 – Madenat

Sheikh Zayed's poem

When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.

Your love is ruling over my heart

Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it

Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home

You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness

Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins

You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge

You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm

Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you

You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it

Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by. 

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South Africa squad

: Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wkt), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.

The candidates

Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive

Ali Azeem, business leader

Tony Booth, professor of education

Lord Browne, former BP chief executive

Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist

Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist

Dr Mark Mann, scientist

Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner

Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister

Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster

 

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Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:

1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition

If you go

 

  • The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
  • The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
  • The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as  Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
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F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

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