Live updates: Follow the latest on Syria
The shock offensive by Syrian rebel militant group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, which toppled the Assad regime in just 10 days, has revived theories of the hidden hand of US meddling.
A former CIA officer close to an effort to help rebels, Operation Timber Sycamore, told The National that, in his view, the regime crumbled due to previous efforts of groups backed by the US. Some observers, not realising how weak the regime had become, were stunned by the success of the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, formerly Jabhat Al Nusra, once an ally of Al Qaeda and ISIS.
“We know they sent in the CIA to overthrow Assad,” US economist Jeffrey Sachs said, adding a US “proxy war destroyed Syria" over seven years.
The reality, according to experts, was a failed effort to build a moderate armed force in Syria, with limited aims.
“Was it a failed covert action? They didn't want Assad to be overthrown, so I don't know if it failed. What they wanted to do is weaken Assad. It was quite clear early on that the United States and others, despite rhetoric, did not want Assad to be overthrown,” says Natasha Hall, an expert on Syria at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The US-led arms effort lasted less than four years of the country’s 13-year conflict, before support was ended by Donald Trump in 2017. Operation Timber Sycamore saw a trickle of arms from the US and several European and regional allies, slowed down by US vetting requirements meant to ensure arms didn’t reach extremists and lagging far behind efforts of countries such as Qatar and Turkey.
Eventually, the arms pipeline became a flood of several thousand tonnes of weapons, but it was too late. Extremists proved more organised than western-backed efforts and recipients of US help suffered defeats at the hands of Jabhat Al Nusra, and Syrian forces, bolstered by Russia’s September 2015 intervention.
“The rebels and the communities that they controlled were sitting ducks for Russian and Syrian aerial power. It's hard to see that any of the weapons provided were effective regarding the most difficult part of the war, on the plains,” Ms Hall says.
The US and allies refused to send anti-aircraft weapons, fearing they would fall into the hands of terrorists.
Timber Sycamore was therefore widely regarded as a disaster. Jabhat Al Nusra was able to hold on to Idlib, partly after obtaining weapons supplied through the operation, defeating government attempts to take back the province. It eventually benefitted from a Turkish plan to shield northern Syria from the war, after a 2020 de-escalation agreement with Russia.
Weapons, in particular deadly TOW anti-tank missiles, would prove important for boosting Hayat Tahrir Al Sham’s already strong combat power, which made extensive use of suicide bombing.
“Operation Timber Sycamore is a compelling case study in the limitations of short-term, fragmented strategies in addressing a conflict as multidimensional as Syria’s,” says Haian Dukhan, a political scientist at the University of St Andrews.
“The intervention was not studied well in terms of knowing who to arm exactly and how those dynamics would evolve, resulting in broader consequences – including the empowerment of groups like Jabhat Al Nusra and the escalation that brought in Russia – which underlined the need for more thoughtful, long-term planning in such interventions," he says.
But the Syrian army was nonetheless greatly weakened by foreign efforts to help the rebels – although experts say the blundering also boosted the rise of ISIS.
The Syrian arms pipeline
The 2011 uprising’s slide into mass violence, driven by regime atrocities, was fuelled by large-scale foreign involvement in the war.
An early entrant to the proxy war was Qatar, which announced its intention to arm rebels in February 2012. Qatar later denied sending arms, but most experts say 2012 was a critical year for foreign involvement as some poorly armed rebels had to use petrol bombs. By the end of 2012, new weapons enabled the rebels to capture Syrian army bases.
Before foreign aid, rebel commanders said most of their weapons came from captured regime stockpiles, a huge mix of weaponry from deadly Kornet anti-tank missiles to in some cases guns not used in combat since WW2.
Modern arms would follow. Qatari and Turkish operations supported factions with alleged ties to radicals – groups such as Jaish Al Islam. The latter met with other rebels in Doha in 2016 for talks on uniting the insurgents.
Hillary Clinton would say the US response involved “responsibly training and equipping a non-extremist rebel force,” and in 2012, US special forces commissioned a study on Syrian rebels were, as many as 1,000 groups.
In September 2013, the first detachment of 50 trained and armed rebels crossed the Turkish border, months after Timber Sycamore was given the green light by Barack Obama.
But the US and allies were already playing catch up. According to analysis by Nate Rosenblatt and David Kilcullen, the effort was stymied by their slow vetting of Syrian opposition groups.
This was a problem militant backers of the rebels did not suffer from, and they were soon lavishly equipped with Belgian FAL rifles, which according to the Small Arms Survey, had been shipped from Libya. The US effort was also stymied by the fact that most funds went to arms, while rivals also sent development aid, helping militants recruit more fighters.
The net result was an avalanche of weapons to often competing groups. By early 2014, UN experts warned that “extremists have become better equipped than other groups and are controlling more territory.”
Hayat Tahrir Al Sham's rise
Jabhat Al Nusra, formed as an ISIS offshoot in around 2011, was quickly seen as the most effective force, leading many other fighters to join its ranks. As infighting among rebels spread, it absorbed or defeated US-backed groups such as Division 13.
“The unit went to pick up their weapons up and immediately got ambushed the moment they were inside Syria and lost them all,” says Michael Stevens, an expert on militants who closely tracked the war. The incident was one of several that saw heavy weapons supplied by the US and allies fall into the hands of Jabhat Al Nusra and ISIS, including TOW missile launchers.
The anti-tank guided missile was lethal against Syria’s Russian-supplied tanks, but also used against lighter vehicles and bunkers. According to conflict analyst Jakub Janovsky, the missiles were critical for blunting regime offensives which were “tank heavy”, including in Idlib. Hundreds, if not thousands of tanks and troop carrying armoured vehicles were destroyed.
Mr Janovsky's data tells a part of the story – much video evidence of armoured vehicle losses went missing in 2015 after YouTube deleted videos of the Syrian war.
“The CIA effort (as opposed to the military, smaller Pentagon effort) was very effective. It may have inadvertently led to Russia becoming involved, precisely because it was a serious challenge to the Assad regime, says a former CIA Officer close to the operation.
“Once support for them was pulled and the covert programme was ended, they still fought on. Some of the forces backed by the operation were actually the first group into Damascus,” he says, referring to Free Syrian Army offensives which reached the city’s outer suburbs.
“HTS is the group everyone is talking about, but it wasn’t the only group. The regime was always fragile without direct support from Russia.”
The Syrian endgame
Some experts say that while the operation seriously weakened the regime, several critical events put distance between the effort and the fall of Damascus.
“US support for the rebels from late 2013 onward contributed to energising the insurgency, resulting in an overall intensification of the conflict, in particular in Idlib and in the suburbs of Damascus. However, Timber Sycamore ultimately failed to unseat Assad, and after Russia’s military intervention in September 2015 the rebels began to experience a series of major battlefield losses,” says Federico Manfredi Firmian, author of War in Syria and the Middle East: A Political and Economic History.
“The insurgency ultimately retrenched in pockets of territory in north-west Syria, with the support of Turkey, which in 2017 and 2018 almost single-handedly prevented the total collapse of all rebel fronts.”
Mr Stevens agrees. “HTS survived basically because the Turks let them survive, and set up the Watch Tower system around Idlib. Without that I suspect that they would have been ground to dust by relentless Russian air power Hezbollah and Shabiha,” he says, referring to regime militias.
Mr Manfredi Firmian says that while the end of the US-backed arms was a setback, by 2017 the country was awash with guns.
“In more recent years, the widespread availability of small arms in Syria made it relatively easy for HTS to acquire weapons, either from other rebel groups or through corrupt regime forces. But what has really boosted HTS’s combat capabilities has been its ability to manufacture artillery shells, drones, rockets, and long-range missiles.”
Mr Dukhan says the failure of Timber Sycamore offers important lessons for how the West deals with the new government.
“Its overemphasis on military solutions and tactical objectives during the civil war often sidelined the deeper political, social, and economic challenges that underpinned the conflict.”
“That left a vacuum that extremist groups and external actors were quick to exploit. Syria must not be reduced to a security problem."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 285bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: TBA
On sale: Q2, 2020
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Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Disability on screen
Empire — neuromuscular disease myasthenia gravis; bipolar disorder; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
Rosewood and Transparent — heart issues
24: Legacy — PTSD;
Superstore and NCIS: New Orleans — wheelchair-bound
Taken and This Is Us — cancer
Trial & Error — cognitive disorder prosopagnosia (facial blindness and dyslexia)
Grey’s Anatomy — prosthetic leg
Scorpion — obsessive compulsive disorder and anxiety
Switched at Birth — deafness
One Mississippi, Wentworth and Transparent — double mastectomy
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Results
2.15pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Hello, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihi (trainer).
2.45pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Right Flank, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,000m
Winner: Leading Spirit, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Jebel Ali Mile Group 3 Dh575,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,400m
Winner: Ode To Autumn, Patrick Cosgrave, Satish Seemar.
4.45pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh125,000 1,200m
Winner: Last Surprise, James Doyle, Simon Crisford.
5.15pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,200m
Winner: Daltrey, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihi.
match info
Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')
Liverpool 0
The cost of Covid testing around the world
Egypt
Dh514 for citizens; Dh865 for tourists
Information can be found through VFS Global.
Jordan
Dh212
Centres include the Speciality Hospital, which now offers drive-through testing.
Cambodia
Dh478
Travel tests are managed by the Ministry of Health and National Institute of Public Health.
Zanzibar
AED 295
Zanzibar Public Health Emergency Operations Centre, located within the Lumumba Secondary School compound.
Abu Dhabi
Dh85
Abu Dhabi’s Seha has test centres throughout the UAE.
UK
From Dh400
Heathrow Airport now offers drive through and clinic-based testing, starting from Dh400 and up to Dh500 for the PCR test.
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
UK%20-%20UAE%20Trade
%3Cp%3ETotal%20trade%20in%20goods%20and%20services%20(exports%20plus%20imports)%20between%20the%20UK%20and%20the%20UAE%20in%202022%20was%20%C2%A321.6%20billion%20(Dh98%20billion).%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThis%20is%20an%20increase%20of%2063.0%20per%20cent%20or%20%C2%A38.3%20billion%20in%20current%20prices%20from%20the%20four%20quarters%20to%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20was%20the%20UK%E2%80%99s%2019th%20largest%20trading%20partner%20in%20the%20four%20quarters%20to%20the%20end%20of%20Q4%202022%20accounting%20for%201.3%20per%20cent%20of%20total%20UK%20trade.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
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Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Results
1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix - 3:45:47
2. David Dekker (NED) Jumbo-Visma - same time
3. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
4. Emils Liepins (LAT) Trek-Segafredo
5. Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis
6. Tadej Pogacar (SLO UAE Team Emirates
7. Anthony Roux (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
8. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:00:03
9. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep
10. Fausto Masnada (ITA) Deceuninck-QuickStep
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
